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8/19/2019 CNBC Fed Survey, Mar 15, 2016
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8/19/2019 CNBC Fed Survey, Mar 15, 2016
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 2 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
2. After this month’s meeting, the Federal Reserve's nextmove will most likely be:
When will the Federal Reserve make its next move?
88%
10%
0%
3%
90%
10%
0%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest rates
Lower interest rates
Move to negative interest rates
Launch new quantitative easing
Jan 27 Mar 15
Jan 27 Survey March 15 Survey
For respondents
who said:Average month:
For respondents
who said: Average month:
Raise interest rates
(88%)May 2016
Raise interest rates
(90%)June 2016
Lower interest rates
(10%)August 2016
Lower interest rates
(10%)October 2016
Move to negative
interest rates (0%)--
Move to negative
interest rates (0%)--
Launch new
quantitative easing
3%
April 2016Launch new
quantitative easing
0%
--
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
3. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates thisyear (2016)?
2.8
2.1
1.9
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Dec 15 '15 Jan 26 '16 Mar 15Survey Dates
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
4. New policy measures announced this week by theEuropean Central Bank will:
46% 46%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Help the ECB hit its
inflation target over thenext several years
Have no effect on
inflation
Don't know/unsure
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
5. As a result of new ECB policy measures, the US FederalReserve will:
32%
5%
59%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Enact fewer
rate hikes
Enact more rate
hikes
Not be effected
by ECB policy
Don't
know/unsure
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 6 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
6. Do you believe negative interest rates …
23%
31%
70%
37%
63%
54%
18%
54%
15%
15%
13%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Can help stimulate economic growth?
Can help increase inflation?
Create more problems than they solveand should not be used?
Could be useful in Europe but should notbe used in the US?
Yes No Don't know/unsure
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
7. What do you believe are Janet Yellen and Stan Fischer'sfederal funds forecasts for ... ?
0.98%
1.90%
2.76%
3.16%
1.12%
2.15%
3.02%
3.36%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2016 2017 2018 The longer run
Janet Yellen Stan Fischer
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
8. The current presidential campaign is:
5%
56%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Positive for the
economic outlook
Negative for the
economic outlook
Having no effect on
the economic outlook
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
Comments:
Trump and Sanders would be worst for stock market. Associating any of these candidates with the word "best" is very
difficult to do. They strike me as equally awful.
Continued monetary easing by major non-U.S. central banks is a
key to U.S. prospects later this year and next. The monetary
easing by the ECB and later BOJ will help raise price inflation
going forward. The stock market needs higher price inflation for
its next major run up.
Clinton is same old, same old and opposed to fracking- not good.Sanders is let-the-good times roll … until the bills roll in and the
rich people who pay them leave. Trump will splurge on public
works projects like wall building and haranguing our competitors
over freer trade. He will be contentious but it might work.
Rubio/Cruz are anti-Fed and looking to shrink government. Not
the best agenda for short-term growth anyway. Kasich is more
centrist. Will not gut but will implement sounder fiscal policy. No
sense of where he stands on free trade, which should be the key
issue of this election.
You can probably put a piece of paper between the economic
policies of the mainstream Republican candidates (excluding
Trump), but I am favoring Kasich because of his willingness to
work across the aisle, which I believe the stock market will be
more comfortable with.
Election outcomes have a smaller and shorter-lived impact on the
markets than popular thinking suggests.
Rubio is just more of the same, no surprises/no solutions. Wall St.
likes the status quo. Cruz offers meaningful solutions to address
longer-term issues that need to be addressed. Cruz is willing to
make the tough decisions IMO.
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
Clinton's views on markets and economy are well known and well
vetted. At this point, Trump can and does say anything.
Prediction markets currently see a high probability of Hillary
Clinton heading to the White House. However, in this scenario, it
is also likely that the GOP retains the House of Representatives
with a risk of losing the Senate. Given the longer-run budget
challenges facing the US along with rising odds of US recession in
the next four years, the political climate in the next government
could bring serious questions to the popular Wall Street adage
that "gridlock is good." Clinton is only good for the stock market if Republicans maintain
control of the House and the Clinton/Ryan combo works as well as
Bill Clinton/Newt Gingrich combo did.
In the majority of presidential years the stock market has been
flat to down in the first half-year and rises in the second half.
Trump's most powerful pro-growth policy is his own exuberance
and pride in his own success. "Yes, I'm a billionaire. I did build
that. You can be a billionaire, too."
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 13 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
11. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index willbe on … ?
23112296
22472259
2293
2254
2159
2166
2140
2000
2035
2088
2223
2107
2158
2200
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
Dec16
Jan 27'15
Mar17
April28
Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept16
Oct 27 Dec15
Jan 15'16
Jan 26 Mar15
Survey Dates
December 31, 2016 December 31, 2017
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
12. What do you expect the yield on the 10-yearTreasury note will be on … ?
3.52%
3.04%
3.14%
2.89%
3.24%
3.17%
2.88%
2.67% 2.67%
2.51%
2.34%
3.09%
2.88%
2.83%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Dec 16 Jan 27'15
Mar 17 April28
Jul 16 Jul 28 Sept16
Oct 27 Dec 15 Jan 26'16
Mar 15
Survey Dates
December 31, 2016 December 31, 2017
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 15 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
13. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate willbe on … ?
1.99%
2.13%
2.04%
1.93%
1.75%
1.84%
1.46%
1.56%
1.41%
1.12%
1.17%
0.91% 0.90%0.85%
0.88%
0.84%
1.61% 1.61%
1.62%
1.60%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Aug20
Sep16
Oct28
Dec16
Jan27,
'15
Mar17
April28
Jun16
Jul28
Aug25
Sept16
Oct27
Dec15
Jan15
'16
Jan26
Mar15
Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2017
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
14. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stophiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
3.16%
3.20%
3.30%
3.17%3.11%
3.04%
2.85%
3.06%
2.98%
2.79%
2.69%2.65%
2.58%2.56%
2.73%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Aug
20
Sep
16
Oct
28
Dec
16
Jan
27,'15
Mar
17
Apr
28
Jun
16
Jul
28
Aug
25
Sept
16
Oct
27
Dec
15
Jan
26'16
Mar
15
Survey Dates
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 17 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
15. When do you believe fed funds will reach itsterminal rate?
Survey Date Forecast
August 20 survey Q4 2017
September 16 survey Q3 2017
October 28 survey Q4 2017
December 16 survey Q1 2018
Jan. 27, 2015 survey Q1 2018
March 17 survey Q4 2017
April 28 survey Q1 2018
June 16 survey Q1 2018
July 28 survey Q2 2018
August 25 survey Q3 2018
September 16 survey Q1 2018
October 27 survey Q3 2018
December 15 survey Q1 2018
Jan. 26, 2016 survey Q2 2018
Mar 15 survey Q3 2018
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
16. What is your forecast for the year-over-yearpercentage change in real U.S. GDP for …?
Dec 16Jan 27,
'15Mar 17 April 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept 16 Oct 27 Dec 15
Jan 26
'16Mar 15
2016 +2.88% +2.80% +2.84% +2.81% +2.78% +2.70% +2.64% +2.60% +2.45% +2.17% +2.14%
2017 +2.43% +2.31% +2.41%
+2.88%
+2.80%
+2.84%
+2.81%
+2.78%
+2.70%
+2.64%
+2.60%
+2.45%
+2.17% +2.14%
+2.43%
+2.31%
+2.41%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
2016 2017
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 19 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
17. What is your forecast for the year-over-yearpercentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?
2.17%
2.07% 2.08%
1.96%
2.17%
2.17%
1.89%
1.75%
1.88%
1.50%
1.72%
2.12%
2.07%
2.24%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
Dec 16Jan 27,
'15
Mar 17 April
28
Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept
16
Oct 27 Dec 15 Jan 26
'16
Mar 15
Survey Dates
2016 2017
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
18. When do you expect the Fed to allow its balancesheet to decline?
Survey DateBalance Sheet
Average Forecast
April 28, 2014 survey October 2015
June 4 survey March 2016
July 29 survey December 2015
September 16 survey December 2015
October 28 survey January 2016
December 16 survey February 2016
Jan. 27, 2015 survey April 2016
March 17 survey April 2016
April 28 survey May 2016
June 16 survey July 2016
July 28 survey June 2016
August 25 survey September 2016
September 16 survey August 2016
October 27 survey November 2016
December 15 survey December 2016
Jan. 26, 2016 survey February 2017
March 15 survey February 2017
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 21 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
19. How would you characterize the Fed's monetary
policy?
28%
49%
46%
49%
44%
39%
50%
54%
50%
60%
54%
64%
49%
36%
49%
43%
43%
49%
43%
49%50%
47%
32%
44%
35%
47%
32%
23%
33%
46%
36%
17%
6%
3% 3% 3%
6% 5% 6%
4%
8%
8%
13%
10%13%
3%
3%
6% 5% 6%
3%
8%
6%
3%
10%
5%
10%
5% 5%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jul
31,'12
Jul
29,'14
Aug
20
Sep
16
Oct
28
Dec
16
Jan
27,'15
Mar
17
Apr
28
Jun
16
Jul 28 Sept
16
Oct
27
Dec
15
Jan
26 '16
Mar
15
Too accommodative Just right Too restrictive Don't know/unsure
Too accomodative
Don't know/unsure
Too restrictive
Just right
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 22 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
20. The Federal Reserve's December interest rate hikewas:
(For those answering “a mistake”) Why was it a mistake?
“Other” answers:
Because there was no sensible reason for it. Revealed the Fed as brain-dead.
Nominal growth is too weak
inflation call was wrong and that influenced their behavior
It was out of sync with the Fed's own reasoning about why it would hike rates and now that is clear.
15%
80%
5%
18%
82%
0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A mistake The right move Don't know/unsure
Jan 26 Mar 15
33%
50%
17%
29%
14%
57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Negative effect on stocks Negative effect oneconomic growth
Other
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 23 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
21. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.economic recovery?
“Other” responses:
China hard landing
Exaggerated fears that are alarming the public
HY bond spreads (tightening in fin. conditions)
Rising wage growth combined with lowproductivity
The Federal Reserve
Policy mistakes here or abroad
Inadequate monetary stimulus, leading to weak
nominal and real growth, fostering political
upheaval
Fear. Fear that what policy officials are doing
about the globe signifies that the global
economy is very bad and that if we do have a
recession since policy has not beennormalized it will be perceived as spent and
nobody can do anything at this point to help
alleviate a recession. If fear over this issue
becomes pronounced enough, private
economic and investment behaviors could turn
extremely cautious, creating a recession.
Survey
Date E u r o p e a n r e c e s s i o n /
f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s
T a x /
r e g u l a t o r y p o l i c i e s
S l o w
j o b g r o w t h
I n f l a t i o n
D e f l a t i o n
D e b t c e i l i n g
R i s e i n i n t e r e s t r a t e s
G e o p o l i t i c a l r i s k s
G l o b a l e c o n w e a k n e s s
S l o w
w a g e g r o w t h
T e r r o r i s t a t t a c k s i n t h e
U . S .
O u t c o m e o f U S
p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n
O t h e r
D o n ' t k n o w /
Apr 30 20% 31% 20% 0% 2% 2% 11%
Jun 18 15% 28% 20% 3% 3% 0% 13%
Jul 30 8% 30% 22% 0% 2% 2% 10% 14%
Sep 17 4% 27% 22% 2% 0% 4% 18% 7%
Oct 29 8% 29% 24% 3% 3% 3% 8% 13%
Dec 17 5% 32% 29% 2% 0% 2% 15% 2% Jan 28 '14 7% 21% 30% 2% 0% 0% 12% 21%
Mar 18 10% 23% 26% 3% 5% 0% 5% 18%
Apr 28 3% 26% 21% 3% 5% 0% 8% 18% 13%
Jul 29 12% 29% 12% 6% 3% 0% 12% 12% 12%
Sep 16 6% 26% 29% 6% 3% 0% 6% 11% 11%
Oct 28 31% 18% 15% 3% 3% 0% 10% 8% 8%
Dec 16 40% 14% 14% 3% 6% 0% 3% 14% 3%
Jan 27 '15 0% 13% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 41% 6% 16%
Mar 17 6% 14% 0% 3% 6% 0% 6% 8% 28% 17% 14%
April 28 3% 11% 8% 3% 0% 0% 6% 11% 28% 8% 19%
Jun 16 3% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 25% 22% 6% 11%
Jul 28 6% 21% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 6% 29% 9% 9%
Sept 16 0% 16% 2% 0% 4% 0% 0% 8% 45% 8% 14% Oct 27 0% 8% 5% 3% 8% 0% 8% 13% 41% 10% 5%
Dec 15 0% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 44% 5% 3% 15%
Jan 26 '16 0% 10% 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 44% 8% 0% 23%
Mar 15 5% 21% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 33% 5% 0% 3% 21%
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 24 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
22. In the next 12 months, what percent probability doyou place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
chance of recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)
Aug11,'11
Sep19
Oct31
Jan23,'12
Mar16
Apr24
Jul31
Sep12
Dec11
Jan29,'13
Mar19
Apr30
Jun18
Jul30
Sep6
Oct29
Dec17
Jan28'14
Mar18
Apr28
Jul29
Sep16
Oct28
Dec16
Jan27'15
Mar17
April28
Jun16
Jul28
Sept16
Oct27
Dec15
Jan15'16
Jan26
Ma15
Series1 34.0 36.1 25.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 25.9 26.0 28.5 20.4 17.6 18.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 18.4 17.3 15.3 16.9 14.6 16.2 15.0 15.1 13.6 13.0 16.4 14.7 15.1 17.4 18.6 22.1 22.9 28.8 24.1 24
34.0%
36.1%
25.5%
20.3%
19.1%
20.6%
25.9%
26.0%
28.5%
20.4%
17.6%
18.2%
15.2%
16.2%
16.9%
18.4%
17.3%
15.3%
16.9%
14.6%
16.2%
15.0%
15.1%
13.6%13.0%
16.4%
14.7%
15.1%
17.4%
18.6%
22.1%
22.9%
28.8%
24.1%
24.4
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Survey Dates
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 25 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
23. What is your primary area of interest?
Comments:
John Augustine, The Huntington National Bank: NIRP has yet to
prove anything positive.
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: I'm worried a contested convention,should it happen, will be very bad for democracy and the economy.I hope it doesn't happen.
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: We've reached the end ofthe road, not in what central banks can do, but of the influence overthe things they are trying to impact. The effectiveness of modern
day central bank activism is over.
Economics48%
Equities18%
Fixed Income13%
Currencies0%
Other23%
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CNBC Fed Survey – March 15, 2016Page 26 of 30
FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
Robert Brusca, Fact and Opinion Economics: The Fed is tornover the right course of action. The FOMC soon will have dissenters,
then Fed policy will become more of a negative for the outlook.Yellen will be unable to hold this fragile alliance on the statement
together.
Thomas Costerg, Standard Chartered Bank: Elevated high-yieldbond spreads remain a crucial threat to US growth. We also think the
market may under-estimate the negative ramifications of the energysector's difficulties. Even if the Fed may sound hawkish in the nearterm, we think closer to the June meeting it will again prefer to play
it safe and keep rates on hold. We do not think the Fed will hikerates this year. In fact the next move may be a cut rather than ahike, in our view.
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO: Central bankers are in the midst of an
important pivot, ostensibly agreeing at the recent G20 meeting inShanghai to a ceasefire in their global currency war by shifting theirfocus away from negative interest rates toward credit easing. Thiswill not only aid credit instruments, it is likely to enable the Fed to
implement additional interest rate hikes, albeit gradually, because itis contributing to a stabilization in global financial conditions.
Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: Since the last FOMCmeeting, US GDP tracking estimates have moved up, theunemployment rate has ticked down, core inflation has firmed, theUSD has sold off, and broader financial conditions have eased
modestly. Still, the Fed is acting as an automatic stabilizer at themoment, delaying given the fragility of financial markets. It will take
a few more months to determine whether the weakness in marketsreflects weakness in the real economy. We're doubtful this is the
case. Delays in March and April will be tactical in nature; the case forgradual rate hikes remains in place.
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
Robert Fry, Robert Fry Economics: When the Fed promised tokeep rates low for an extended period, they gave potential
borrowers/investors/homebuyers permission to sit on the fence andwait. When they suggested in December that they would raise the
fed funds rate 4 times in 2016, they freaked out the financialmarkets. The biggest problem with monetary policy isn't the level ofinterest rates; it's the forward guidance.
Kevin Giddis, Raymond James/Morgan Keegan: The Fed needsto lead the conversation on monetary policy and get its credibilityback, which is needed to restore the market's confidence in the
FOMC's ability to rely first on the data, and not their "hunch" thatinflation is around the corner. They need not make that mistakeagain.
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: The Fed has done a good job
walking back the “4 in 2016” narrative and moving us from calendardependence to data dependence. The Fed should throw away theircalendar and always be data dependent.
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: The Fed bought themselvessome credibility with the last hike. Despite some good news on jobsand the recent rally in stocks, there is still plenty to worry about.
The Fed can afford to pause and wait for more data.
Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz Associates: While the worldeconomies and the associated mood over the last 6 weeks have
created doubt about the strength of the US economy, recent datasuggests otherwise and the outlook should remain positive.
Consumer spending is off on a strong start this year. Housing shouldget the benefit of better labor market and growing incomes.
Nevertheless, voting members of the FOMC will remain in a holdingpattern until some of the world worries have been reduced.
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FED SURVEYMarch 15, 2016
David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: Remarkable times when 1/4of world real output is housed in 23 countries with NIRP policy.
Market agents underestimate the power of NIRP on asset prices.Central bankers overestimate NIRP power on growth and inflation.
Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Chronic challengesexist in the Middle East and about North Korea. Other confluencesloom in the ides of March 2016 from both central banks and politics
worldwide. We see global harbingers of market volatility being thefailure of currencies from the euro to the yen to the renminbi tobehave as authorities indicated; the structure in fixed income,
especially of spreads; the highly jagged commodity pricing andranged momentum behavior in equities. After being quantitativeease centric, change looms and better balance is required betweenvalue and momentum across capital markets, an issue neitherinvestors nor authorities should ignore.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: Job markets say hike.Inflation says don't hike. Stock markets say can't hike. Policymakersare confronted with a series of contradictory signals, all at a time
when monetary policy is becoming less helpful for the real economy.
Ward McCarthy, Jefferies: The primary feature of the US economy
is resilience because it is consumer-driven and 85% of householdsare employed in the service sector.
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The Fed has made it clear it
will raise rates four times in 2016. I don't believe it will, but if itdoesn’t raise rates at the March meeting it makes the “4 hikes in
2016” target a bit harder to believe.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: Once people stopfocusing on the equity markets they will realize the U.S. economy isin good shape and wages and prices are rising faster.
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James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: What the globaleconomy needs right now are leaders/policy officials who illustrate
confidence in the free private capitalistic system by stopping theprolific expansion of experimental economic treatments and thereby
implicitly suggest that Adam Smith, if left alone, will probablysucceed from here in bringing about a desired result. We need forour policy officials to communicate confidence rather than allow theircollective actions to exhibit fear.
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: Negativeinterest rates represent a genie that should be put back in the bottle.
The transmission channels are not working and are in fact backfiring.For example, in Japan, the yen is higher, stock prices are lower, andpressure on bank profits is stifling borrowing.
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: Beyond global economic weakness
we worry political rhetoric and the outcome of the presidentialelection could negatively impact the market, as investors never likeuncertainty. Political polarization is certainly not positive for theequity markets.
Merrill Ross, Wunderlich: No central bank has yet successfullylifted off the zero bound. I believe this is because of the lack of
synchronicity in the economic direction among large and influentialcountries.
John Ryding, RDQ Economics: The Fed has botched its
communications policy. Rising core inflation and fallingunemployment should have a data dependent Fed raising rates next
week. It is unlikely to. Communications are a mess.
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: Markets have overreacted fartoo much to recession risks. Just the opposite is in process.
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Stephen Stanley, Pierpont Securities: The FOMC has beenexcessively sensitive to financial market swings and is falling
increasingly behind the curve.
Peter Tanous, Lynx Investment Advisory: A President Trumpwould tackle our infrastructure needs with gusto. He would embarkon a massive building and rebuilding program that would boost theeconomy. He will build beautiful roads, bridges, tunnels and even
walls. And at every ribbon cutting, there would be lines around theblock to get it.
Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: The ECB'sactions this morning are exactly what we thought wouldhappen....but over time. Rather than trickle these actions slowlyinto the market over a period of multiple meetings, they decided todo in one fell swoop what we and some in the market expected them
to do in aggregate. We have been telling our clients to not doubt theresolve of the world's major central banks to pull out all the stops intheir attempt to push inflation and economic growth higher. Moremajor global central bank action is almost surely to follow in the
nearer term. In the immediate wake of the ECB announcement itwas "risk on" around the globe. Now the market is debating whetherthis was a desperation move by the ECB. We do not view this as
desperation but basically as taking a bold step to do what they knewhad to eventually occur.
Clare Zempel, Zempel Strategic: Pay more attention to the
"market monetarist's" viewpoint.