Climatic Impacts on Industry and Commerce

Outline

• Background• Climate factors

– Industry placement– Sensitivities of industry– Impacts on production

• Construction and Commerce

• The emerging climate industry

Background

• Research on climate and industry sparse

• Known impacts– Industry changes do not respond to weather– Industry changes may respond to climate but

at long time scales– Climate affects people, who in turn affect

industry (types, location, success)

Placement of Industry

• Emissions considerations– Inversion layers

common?

• Precipitation Clarksville, TN Coal Fired Plant

Los Angeles, CA (2007)

Dispersion Modeling

• Determine sensitivities of an area to emissions

• Determine impacts of a chemical leak or spill

• Example: HYSPLIT model– Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php

Industry Climate Sensitivities

[Table 14.2]

Industry Climate Sensitivities

[Table 14.3]

Industry Climate Sensitivities

• Migration of workers to better climates– Asheville?

• Industry primarily vulnerable to extreme weather events

• Beyond that, climate change has little direct influence on industry

Climate affects GDP

IPCC (2007)

Construction Considerations

• Structural and architectural design

• Weather affects construction times and costs– Rain delays

• Examples– Recent civil suit in Bristol, VA– Tacoma Narrows Bridge (1940)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mclp9QmCGs

Construction Considerations

• Culvert not big enough to withstand large rainfall event

Construction Considerations

• Concrete must be set at certain temperatures– 7-day cure between 65-85°F, < 100% RH

• Choice in construction site– Not too hot, not too cold, not too wet, not too

dry, just right…

Climate and Commerce

• People respond to weather and climate changes in the things they buy and do– e.g. more ice cream on hot days

• Entertainment options– Ski resorts– Movies– Others?

Future Considerations

• Ice free Arctic passage– More efficient trade– Territory disputes

• More extreme events

• Sea Level Rise

• The new climate industry

An Emerging Industry?

• “Green” construction

• Bioenergy

• Renewable Energy

• Carbon trading

• ~ $100 billion already (2006, Climate Change Business Journal)

• 20-30% growth rate annually

Green Building

• Buildings use 72% electricity, 38% CO2 emissions, 30% waste output in U.S.

• $45 billion industry(2007)

Benefits of Green Building

• Environmental– Improve air and water quality– Reduce waste– Conserve natural resources

• Economic– Reduce operating costs– Improve employee productivity

• Health– Improve air, thermal, acoustic

environments– Minimize strain on local infrastructure

Bioenergy

• Biofuels and biopower• 21.1 billion in revenues

(2007, 16% growth)• Types of bioenergy

– landfill gas to energy– ethanol– biomass gasification

(combustion of biomass to produce CO, hydrogen, and methane)

http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/bioenergy/

Impacts of Bioenergy Development

• Food prices going up– High corn demand– Less planting areas for other crops

http://www.ers.usda.gov/multimedia/EthanolMay2007/

Ethanol Questions

• To power 1 vehicle for 1 year in U.S. on ethanol/gasoline blend**– 11 acres farmland (food for 7 people)– 131,000 BTUs to produce 1 gallon of ethanol

• 77,000 BTUs energy output from 1 gallon of ethanol

• Alternatives?– Brazil has sugarcane based biofuel

• 1 calorie of energy produces 8.2 calories of energy

** David Pimental, Cornell University

Renewable Energy

• Energy produced from natural resources– Solar– Wind– Tides– Geothermal

• 0.8% of global energy (2006) from these sources

• Biomass (13%) also renewable

Wind Power Industry

• Growing rapidly– 45% growth in 2007– $9 billion investment into the economy– Generate 1.5% of U.S. electricity (2008 – 5.7

million homes)

http://www.awea.org/

http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Market_Update.pdf

Wind Power Potential

Solar Industry

• 3,850,000 x 1018 J of energy absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere in 1 year– 1 hour will power

everything for 1 year

Solar Insolation

If disks were populated with solar arrays, it would power the entire earth

“Passive” Solar• Using sunlight

without active mechanical systems– Sunlight for heat– Solar water

heating– Natural ventilation– Selective shading

/ sun orientation

“Active” Solar

• Use of mechanical equipment to transfer solar energy into useable means– Photovoltaic panels– Pumps, fans– Alignment of solar

cells

The Solar Industry

• 2008 – Record installations of photovoltaic (PV) installations– 5.95 gigawatts (GW)– 110% increase from

2007

• 82% of demand in Europe

• $37.1 billion revenues

Carbon Trading – A New Market

• Goal is to mitigate global carbon emissions

• Bring “buyers” (industry, power plants, etc.) and “sellers” (forest landowners, agricultural land) together

• Analogous to a salary cap in professional sports– Government or other entity sets the limit– Exceed the limit? Must buy credits– Below the limit? May sell credits

Carbon Market Critics

• Does not reduce carbon emissions– Non-polluting industries just sell credits to the

highest bidder

• Focuses on short term carbon footprint rather than long-term strategic initiatives

• Grandfathering of older industries by governments (form of immunity)