Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Climatic Analysis of Summer Rainfall Characteristics in North-Central Alabama. Jason C. Senkbeil Department of Geography. Objectives. Review current and recent literature on future precipitation projections for the region Is Alabama precipitation exhibiting these tendencies? Summer trend - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Climatic Analysis of Summer Rainfall Climatic Analysis of Summer Rainfall Characteristics in North-Central Characteristics in North-Central
AlabamaAlabama
Jason C. SenkbeilJason C. Senkbeil
Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography
Objectives
Review current and recent literature on future precipitation projections for the region
Is Alabama precipitation exhibiting these tendencies?– Summer trend– High magnitude (HM) events (>25mm)
HM Precip/LM Precip Frequency of HM events
IPCC 4th assessment 2007
USGCRP
USGCRP
Climatic Change 2012
Climatic Change 2012
y = -0.0354x + 12.992
R2 = 0.0145
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Huntsville
1975 – 2000 mean = 12.08”
2030* = 10.51” or 87% 2060* = 9.45” or 78%
y = -0.0079x + 1.1898
R2 = 0.0255
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
19601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010
Frequency of HM Events
HM Events/LM
y = 0.0015x + 13.088
R2 = 4E-05
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Birmingham
y = -0.0018x + 0.9553
R2 = 0.0025
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Frequency of HM Events
HM Events/LM
y = 0.032x + 11.274
R2 = 0.02
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Montgomery
1950 – 1975 mean = 11.94”
2020* = 13.54” or 113%
2050* = 14.47” or 121%
y = 0.0155x + 3.1565
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
y = 0.0031x + 0.8956
R2 = 0.0056
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Frequency of HM Events
HM Events/LM
y = -0.0129x + 20.474
R2 = 0.0014
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
195
0
195
3
195
6
195
9
196
2
196
5
196
8
197
1
197
4
197
7
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
200
4
200
7
201
0
Mobile
y = 0.0007x + 1.2879
R2 = 0.0005
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Frequency of HM Events
HM Events/LM
Summary
Location 2075 Projected Precip vs Observed
2075 Rainfall Intensity/Frequency vs Observed
Huntsville Proj.= ~ 10% drierobserved trend possibly > for drier summers
Proj increase in rainfall intensity and cddObserved = no
Birmingham Proj.= ~ 10% drierObserved trend flat and slightly wetter
Slight increase intensity- more cddObserved = possible
Montgomery Proj.= ~ 10% drierobserved trend for wetter summers
Large increase in cdd, intensity stableObserved = no
Mobile Proj.= ~ 10-15% drierObserved trend about 6% drier
Large increase in cdd,intensity stableObserved = possible
