Climate variability in the region of future Tiksi Hydrometeorological ObservatoryRepublic Sakha (Yakutia) Russia

Makshtas A., N. Ivanov, S, ShutilinArctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Saint Petersburg, Russia

T. UttalNOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado,

Barrow

Alert

Eureka

Summit

Ny-Alesund

Abisko

Тикси

Sammultunturi (Pallas)

The Tiksi Hydrometeorological Observatory is designed for co-location of observations supporting networks such as BSRN, GAW, UV-NET, CRN, AeroNET, MPLNET and others (including permafrost and other measurements)

Полярка

Поселок Тикси

Аэропорт

Дельта Лены

MODIS “250m” data (Channel 1-3-6) from 062302, TERRA 0300 UTC

Courtesy of MODIS Rapidfire gallery

View of future Tiksi Observatory in from space

(Lena mouth)

(Airport)

(Meteorological station)

(Village Tiksi)

Existing positions of meteorological and radiosounding observations , measurements of fast ice thickness, sea level, water temperature

and salinity

Place for fast ice, water temperature, and salinity measurements

Place for meteorological observations

Pavilion for radiosoundings

Standard surface meteorological observations have been made with consistent methods since 1934

Radiosoundings in “

Polarka”

started in 1935 and continue to present

The historical Tiksi data sets have recently been digitized Example of original table of meteorological data (January 1966)

Data correction

Four steps of Archive corrections had been used for correction of about 1.23 million data prepared from hand written log books, sometimes of low quality, with a lot of improvements. For that EXEL files for each calendar month had been prepared to exclude seasonal variability.

1step.

With EXEL graphic presentations of file for each month of each meteorological parameter rough errors had been deleted.

2 step. Mean square deviations of data rows had been calculated to be sure that all rough mistakes had been deleted.

3 step.

Graphic analysis of probably wrong information had been done by

comparison of dubious

data with neighboring data in the same data row.

4 step. After 1-3 steps by number sequence

of measured data xi

, i=1,2,…,n the data rows and its sums had been calculated:

δxi

= ⎜xi -

xi-1⎜, i=1,2,…,n-1

Additional control had been executed by comparison of maximal daily variation of air surface temperature with data of maximal and minimal thermometers. Despite low accuracy of last measurements 72 mistake of air surface temperature had been found. The same procedure with comparison the values of total and low cloudiness had been made.

∑−

=

δ−

=δ1n

1kk

* x1n

1

In case δxi > D*δ the data with numbers i-1, i, i+1are assumed as doubtful and controlled by

logbooks. We used D=5 for step 4.

MISSING DATA

The number of months with more than 5 days of missing wind speed data is 3 out of 840 months.The number of months with more than 5 days of missing air temperature data during is 4. There are only 136 days missing air pressure data in entire dataset.Consequently, using the criteria that data must be present 4 times per day for more than 25 days/month, only 0.5% of the original data had been excluded from statistical calculations

Year Month1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1937 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1938 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 29 31

1939 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1941 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1942 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1943 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1945 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1946 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 29 31

1947 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1949 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1950 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30

1951 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1953 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1954 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1955 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1957 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1958 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1959 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1960 31 28 11 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1961 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1962 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30

1964 31 29 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 28

1965 31 27 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30

1972 31 29 31 30 31 30 29 31 30 31 30 31

1982 31 28 - 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31

1994 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 - 30 -

Months with absence of wind speed data (in grey)

JULday year mnnth day Ta00 Ta03 Ta06 Ta09 Ta12 Ta15 Ta18 Ta21 Tamax Tamin

1990 1990 1 1 -24.6 -24.1 -26.1 -25.7 -26.1 -33.3 -32.5 -29.1 -23 -34.7

1990.03 1990 1 2 -28.3 -33.3 -33.9 -33.2 -33.6 -27.3 -30.3 -26.5 -25.9 -34.8

Q00 Q03 Q06 Q09 Q12 Q15 Q18 Q21 Ts00 Ts03 Ts06 Ts09 Ts12 Ts15

0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 -27 -26 -28 -27 -28 -37

0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0003 0.0004 -32 -36 -36 -37 -38 -30

Ts18 Ts21 Tsmax Tsmin NT00 NT03 NT06 NT09 NT12 NT15 NT18 NT21 NL00 NL03

-36 -32 -26 -38 10 10 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0

-34 -31 -28 -39 0 6 3 4 2 3 0 0 0 0

NL06 NL09 NL12 NL15 NL18 NL21 vi00 vi03 vi06 vi09 vi12 vi15 vi18 vi21

0 0 0 0 0 0 63 97 64 62 80 82 82 82

0 0 0 0 0 0 82 97 83 81 82 80 81 81

RV00 RV12 slp00 slp03 slp06 slp09 slp12 slp15 slp18 slp21 WD00 W00 WD03 W03

0 0.4 1019.9 1019.9 1020.5 1021 1021.9 1020 1019.7 1019.3 0 0 220 8

0 0 1020.2 1019.8 1019.7 1019.9 1019.9 1022 1021.3 1021 40 3 100 2

WD06 W06 WD09 W09 WD12 W12 WD15 W15 WD18 W18 WD21 W21 hs so00

250 6 225 6 225 6 205 2 245 2 220 4 2 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 200 3 0 0 220 4 2 8

Example of files, stored in Meteorological Archive

The meteorological archive fir Tiksi will be available on WEB in summer 2008

Climate of Tiksi observatory area

Spectral density of multi-year variability of air surface temperature (a), surface pressure (b) and wind velocity (c)

b c

a b c

Seasonal variability of monthly means (1) and extremes from daily (3, 5) and monthly (2, 4) averaged data

1 3 5 7 9 11-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1

5

4

2

31 3 5 7 9 11

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020

1030

1040

1050

1060

1

5

4

2

3

T,

0C P, gPa

Month Month

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

970 985 1000 1015 1030 10450

5

10

15

20

970 985 1000 1015 1030 10450

5

10

15

20

25

970 985 1000 1015 1030 10450

5

10

15

20

25

30

970 985 1000 1015 1030 10450

5

10

15

20

25

Distribution of air surface temperature and surface pressure (%)

T, 0C

P, gPa

January April July October

SCALE, %

VELOSITY, m/s

0 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94 1 00

CALM 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 30

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH

APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DESEMBER

Wind roses in Tiksi (1934 –

2006)

Maximal velocity in winter 40 m/s

Maximal velocity in spring 23 m/s

Maximal velocity in summer 25 m/s

Maximal velocity in autumn 40 m/s

2 m/s

January February March

AprilMay June

July August September

October November December

Vector of mean wind velocity and MSD ellipse

00 03 06 09

12 15 18 21

SCALE

10 %

Diurnal variations of wind velocity in Tiksi during summer

May July

August

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120123456789

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

23

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0123456789

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

15

30

45

60

75

90 2

34

Seasonal variability of multi-year averaged characteristics of cloudiness

Total cloudiness Low cloudinessTenth Tenth

P, % P, %month month

month month

1

1

1 –

cloudiness, 2 –

occurrence 0-3 tenths, 3 –occurrence 4-7 tenths, 4 –occurrence 8-10 tenths

Climate variability of future Tiksi observatory area

1 3 5 7 9 11-0.025-0.020-0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0150.020

1 3 5 7 9 110

2

4

6

8

10

1 3 5 7 9 11-0.05-0.04-0.03-0.02-0.010.000.010.020.030.040.05

1 3 5 7 9 110

2

4

6

8

10

Monthly mean air surface temperature and surface pressure trends

0C/year

gPa/year

Dtr

/D, %

Dtr

/D, %

month

month

month

month

Contribution of trends to MSD

T

P

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005980

985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

1035

1040

1045

1050

1055

1060

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005985

990

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1025

1030

min

max

m

0.05

0.95

p

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

min

max

m0.05

0.95

p

Trends of monthly mean quantile

values of air surface temperature and surface pressure

February April JulyT, 0C

P, gPa

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120.00

0.02

0.04

0.0612

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.101

2

Annual variations of monthly mean absolute values of air surface temperature and pressure trends (1) and corresponding trends of ranges of deviation (2)

0C/year

gPa/year

Direction Calm 1-10 m/s 11-20 m/s > 20 m/s All Mean velocity

North 0.12 -0.01 - -0.02

East 0.02 - - 0.02 -0.02

South 0.25 0.02 0.05 0.27 -0.03

West -0.08 -0.12 -0.07 -0.20 -0.05

All directions

-0.20 0.31 -0.11 -0.03

1 3 5 7 9 110

2

4

6

8

10

1 3 5 7 9 11

SCALE

0.01 m/s year -1x

Monthly mean wind trends and its relative input to MSD

Dtr /D, %

Trends of wind occurrence by direction and velocity in April(%/year)month month

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20052

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20051

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20050

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20050.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Interannual variability of total cloudiness Relative occurrence of clear sky (blue) and overcast (red)

January

July

January

Julyyear year

year year

tenth

tenth

1 3 5 7 9 11-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

1 3 5 7 9 110

10

20

30

40

50

1 3 5 7 9 11-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

1 3 5 7 9 110

10

20

30

40

50

Trend coefficients of total (1) and low (2) cloudiness amount, and its relative input to MSD

Significant trendInsignificant

Tenth/year

Tenth/year

Dtr/D, %

Dtr/D, %month month

month month

1 1

22

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22

-20

-18

T 85

0 m

b

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-56

-54

-52

-50

-48

-46

-44

-42

T 40

0 m

b

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

T 10

00 m

b

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

T 85

0 m

b

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22

T 40

0 m

b

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22T

1000

mb

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-80

-75

-70

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

T 50

mb

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

-48

-46

-44

-42

-40

-38

-36

-34

T 50

mb

January

July

Climate of free atmosphere in Tiksi

The strong warming in low troposphere and cooling in upper troposphere and low stratosphere, especially during summer, is one of the main peculiarities of climate of free atmosphere in the Tiksi region

1000 gPa 850 gPa

400 gPa 50 gPa

1000 gPa 850 gPa

400 gPa 50 gPa

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260Ic

e th

ickn

ess,

mInterannual variability of maximal fast ice thickness

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320Ju

lian

day Date of fast ice destruction

Date of drifting ice total melting Date of freezing begining Date of beginning fast ice formation

Interannual variability of data of fast and drifting ice formation and destruction

1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960

Year

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7Sn

ow th

ickn

ess,

m

Snow thickness calculated with data about snow precipitation

Precipitation Gauge Change

SUMMARYA digital archive has

been

created

of

the

historical

Tiksi station

data

(1934

to

present)

Quantile

analysis

suggests

that

the

influences

of

synoptic

systems

on

temperature

trends

is

significant

Wind

analysis

reveals

increased

southerly

winds

in

Fall, Winter

and

Spring

Strong

trends

in

cloudiness

(increasing

in

winter

and

decreasing

in

summer) have

been

detected. It could be the reason for positive trends of surface air temperature during these seasons

Sea

ice

cover

in

the

adjacent

Sogo

Bay

shows

significant

increase

in

the

length

of

the

ice-free

season

but

also

some increases

in

the

fast

ice

seasonal

maximum

thickness

These

historical

data

suggest

a number

of

collaborating

mechanisms

that

are

contributing

to

net

increases

in

temperature

The historical data

provides

guidance

for

detailed

process

studies

and

measurement

requirements

at

the

new

Observatory

Future plans

•

To prepare Archive of daily mean meteorological data beginning 1909 for polar stations Kazachiya and Kusur, located close to Tiksi

•

To deploy modernized meteorological and radiosounding stations

•

To organize observations in frame of the Climate Reference Network (CNR)

•

To develop procedure of intercomparison and during two years to execute in Tiksi parallel measurements with old and modern meteorological instruments