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March 28, 2011

Climate Science: EPA Decision-Making and

Education EffortsPresented by: Dr. Marcus Sarofim and Erin Birgfeld

3/28/2011 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2

Climate Science: EPA decision-making and education efforts

Marcus SarofimErin Birgfeld

March 28, 2011

The EPA and Climate Science

• The Endangerment Finding• Climate Science: Physics and History• Climate Science: Indicators of Change• Climate Science: The Future• The EPA Website

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Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for

Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act

http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment.html

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PART ONE

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Supreme Court Decision

Massachusetts v. EPA (April 2007)

– Found that GHG, including CO2, are “air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act

– Required EPA to determine whether or not emissions of GHG from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution reasonably anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, unless scientifically impossible to determine

– EPA required to respond to petition for rulemaking requesting EPA regulate CO2 and other GHG from motor vehicles

– http://www.supremecourtsus.gov/opinions/06pdf/05-1120.pdf

• Comprehensive and Transparent Review• Science comes from many highly respected,

peer reviewed sources: – IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change)– US GCRP (US Global Change Research Program)– National Academy of Science

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Scientific Basis of the Endangerment Finding

The Conclusion:

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On December 7, 2009, EPA found that there is scientific evidence that climate change and greenhouse gases endanger the health and welfare of the American people.

EPA Begins To Take Action

• Administrator’s Principles

– Common Sense – Cost-Effectiveness – Clarity, Achievability and Flexibility – Transparency – Focus on the largest emitters

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Let’s pause for questions from the audience

The Basics of Climate Science

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PART TWO

Background• How many of you teach climate change in the classroom? [Click on the smiley face]

• What are some challenging science questions that you get? (Raise hand to volunteer)

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Poll:  First Studies of Climate ChangeThe Greenhouse Effect

Physics of Carbon Dioxide

Calculated effects of Doubled CO2

Accurate Measurements of Atmospheric CO2

1800‐1850

1850‐1900

1900‐1950

1950‐present

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13Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010

GHGs:  Water, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, CFCs, fluorinated gases… “transparent” gases: Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon…Other climate substances:  Clouds, aerosols (sulfates, black carbon)…

The Climate System

14Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007

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16Source:  IPCC, 2007

GHGs, Temperature, Ice Sheets: 600,000 years of history

“Recent” Changes in GHGs

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Gray bars = range over last 650,000 years.

Source:  IPCC, 2007

Recent GHG concentrations reflect the increase in emissions

18Source: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_data

US and Global GHG Emissions US GHG Emissions and Sinks by Economic Sector (1990 – 2008)

19Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010

Global GHG Emissions by Region (1990 – 2005)

Global Temperatures Have Increased

20Source: WoodForTrees

Pinatubo

La Nina

El Nino

Chichon

21Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007

Let’s pause for questions from the audience

PART THREE:  INDICATORS

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Rate of Temperature ChangeUnited States:  1901‐2008

24EPA Indicators Report:  Original Data from NOAA

Observed Changes in Glaciers• Glaciers and ice caps provide among 

the most visible indications of the effects of climate change.

• Although there is local and regional variability, there has been considerable mean retreat rates in all regions .

25Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010

Observed Sea Ice Decline

• Both winter and summer ice extent exhibit a negative trend, with values of ‐2.7 % per decade for March and ‐11.6% per decade for September over the period 1979‐2010.

Source: Perovich et al. (2010); National Snow and Ice Data Center; USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010

Temporal anomalies in sea ice extent with respect to 1979 ‐ 2000 average

• 2007 represented  a record minimum of sea ice extent in the Arctic since 1979 (2010 and 2008 are 2nd and 3rd lowest)

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Observed Sea Level Rise

Source: EPA Climate Change Indicators Report

• Sea level rise:• Ocean heating and 

expansion plus glacier melt plus land‐ice sheet melt plus/minus water withdrawals and impoundment

• ~2 mm/year over 20th century

• ~3 mm/year last two decades

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Relative Sea Level, US, 1958‐2008

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Sea level rise:  Global mean plus local change.

Local change can result from glacial rebound, water withdrawals, erosion, localized oceanic heating patterns, and even gravity changes…

Source:  EPA Climate Change Indicators

Change In US Precipitation, 1901‐2008

29EPA Indicators Report, Original Source NOAA

Increased Single‐Day Precipitation

30EPA Indicators Report

Birds Moving North, 1966‐2005

31EPA Indicators Report

Change in the latitude of the bird center of abundance for 305 bird species in North America

Ocean Acidification, 1700s to 1990s

32EPA Indicators Report

Let’s pause for questions from the audience

Part Three:  The Future

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What can we expect in the future?• Climate models predict that without reductions in GHGs, temperatures 

will continue to rise.

35Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007

Future Warming is Uncertain

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We can “buy” a better spin by reducing emissions…

Source:  MIT Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change

Patterns of change per 1°C annual warming

37Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007

The regional pattern of changes depends on the indicator

• In the continental United States, the ensemble mean projection is for an increase in precipitation in the winter and a reduction in the summer. In contrast, Canada is more robustly wetter and Mexico drier.

• More rain in extreme one‐day events, but longer period between events?

Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 200738

Global Precipitation Change

• There is a general increase in precipitation in subpolar and polar latitudes, and a decrease in the subtropics, and an increase once again in many equatorial regions. 

• In the continental United States, this ensemble mean projection is for an increase in precipitation in the winter and a reduction in the summer. In contrast, Canada is more robustly wetter and Mexico drier.

Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007

Visualizing heat:What does 6 to 13 degrees F local warming mean?

40Source:  Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (2007)

Forest Fires

Source: National Research Council (2010); Figure: Rob Norheim

• Warming of 1°C (relative to 1950‐2003) is expected to produce increases in median area burned by about 200‐400% .

• The Pacific Northwest and forested regions of the Rockies and the Sierra are particularly vulnerable.

• Over time, extensive warming and associated wildfires could exhaust the fuel for fire in some regions, as forests are completely burned.

• Uncertainties include understanding of local soil moisture changes with global warming. 

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Projected Changes in Wildfires in the US

“Take home” Science messages

• Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the climate.• Human activities are increasing GHG concentrations.

• Climate warming and the many consequences of that warming are happening and will continue. 

• There is uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of change of the warming and of the resulting impacts.

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Let’s pause for questions from the audience

Part Four:  Tour of Key EPA Website and Resources

• Preview of EPA’s New Students Site (To be launched in early April)– Targets 6‐8th grade students– Comprehensive site with lots of scientific information– Interactive elements include

• Climate 101 video (~2 minutes long)• Animations on greenhouse effect and carbon cycle• A series of “Climate Expeditions” where students explore the impacts of key climate impacts around the world

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Quick Web Tour of Other Materials for Educators

• Useful Climate Science Materials– Indicators Report– Back to Basics pamphlet– Climate Fact Sheet Series

• Taking Action and Reducing Your Carbon Footprint (GHG reduction): – EPA/DOE’s Energy Star and Energy Star for Kids– What you can do at home, at the office, on the 

road, and at school– EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator

• Adaptation Efforts– Wildlife and Wildlands toolkit

• FAQ Database

Let’s pause for questions from the audience

Feedback for EPA• What is your “go to source” for teaching climate change in your classroom? (Raise your hand to volunteer)

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3/28/2011 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 50

Supplemental Slides

Resources for Taking Action –Alternate Approaches

• New/Clean Energy Technology• Energy Efficiency/Conservation

– Reducing waste– Public Health– Reducing air pollution

Resources for Taking Action –Alternate Approaches

Resources for Taking Action – Climate Change Adaptation

• Sea Level Rise• Heat Health Issues• Land Use/Greenways• Wildlife

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