Dan  Cayan        SIO  and  USGS  David  Rupp  and  Phil  Mote    Oregon  State  University,  NWCSC    Mary  Tyree      SIO  Suraj  Polade,  Sasha  Gershunov,  Dave  Pierce,  Mike  De=nger  

In  Seek  of  Climate  change  scenarios  for  California  from  CMIP5    

 

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Figure 19. Relative error of the ensemble mean of each metric for each CMIP5 GCM. Models are ordered from least (left) to most (right) total relative error, where total relative error is the sum of relative errors from all metrics, excluding the diurnal temperature range (DTR) metrics. For 7 GCMs, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) metrics were not calculated (white squares).

Figure  19.  Rela*ve  error  of  the  ensemble  mean  of  each  metric  for  each  CMIP5  GCM.  Models  are  ordered  from  least  (le=)  to  most  (right)  total  rela*ve  error,  where  total  rela*ve  error  is  the  sum  of  rela*ve  errors  from  all  metrics,  excluding  the  diurnal  temperature  range  (DTR)  metrics.  For  7  GCMs,  the  diurnal  temperature  range  (DTR)  metrics  were  not  calculated  (white  squares).      

     Ranking  GCM’s  by  Rupp  and  Mote  using  a  mul*-­‐factor  historical  climate  evalua*on  scheme,  SW  US  

8

Figure 8. Mean precipitation for DJF (a and b) and JJA (c and d) from NCEP (a and c) and from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (b and d). re  8.  Mean  precipita*on  for  DJF  (a  and  b)  and  JJA  (c  and  d)  from  NCEP  (a  and  c)  and  from  the  CMIP5  mul*-­‐model  mean  (b  and  d).      

2

Figure 2. Mean seasonal cycle of temperature (upper panel) and precipitation rate (lower panel) averaged over the SWUS. Monthly means calculated from gridded observation datasets (NCEP, CRU, PRISM) and from all ensemble members from 37 CMIP5 GCMs.

Figure  2.  Mean  seasonal  cycle  of  temperature  (upper  panel)  and  precipita*on  rate  (lower  panel)  averaged  over  the  SWUS.  Monthly  means  calculated  from  gridded  observa*on  datasets  (NCEP,  CRU,  PRISM)  and  from  all  ensemble  members  from  37  CMIP5  GCMs.      

3

Figure 3. SWUS mean seasonal cycle amplitude in temperature and precipitation by model. For each CMIP5 model, blue-filled circles show the ensemble average, yellow-filled circles show the first ensemble member, and the open circles show the remaining ensemble members. For the observations (Obs), the red-filled circle shows the average, the yellow-filled circle shows NCEP, and the open circle shows CRU and PRISM.

Figure  3.  SWUS  mean  seasonal  cycle  amplitude  in  temperature  and  precipita*on  by  model.  For  each  CMIP5  model,  blue-­‐filled  circles  show  the  ensemble  average,  yellow-­‐filled  circles  show  the  first  ensemble  member,  and  the  open  circles  show  the  remaining  ensemble  members.  For  the  observa*ons  (Obs),  the  red-­‐filled  circle  shows  the  average,  the  yellow-­‐filled  circle  shows  NCEP,  and  the  open  circle  shows  CRU  and  PRISM.      

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Figure 16. Response of SWUS winter (JFM) temperature and precipitation to the Niño3.4 index averaged over ASOND of the previous year. For each CMIP5 model, blue-filled circles show the ensemble average, yellow-filled circles show the first ensemble member, and the open circles show the remaining ensemble members. CRU was used for the observations (Obs). Figure  16.  Response  of  SWUS  winter  (JFM)  temperature  and  precipita*on  to  the  

Niño3.4  index  averaged  over  ASOND  of  the  previous  year.  For  each  CMIP5  model,  blue-­‐filled  circles  show  the  ensemble  average,  yellow-­‐filled  circles  show  the  first  ensemble  member,  and  the  open  circles  show  the  remaining  ensemble  members.  CRU  was  used  for  the  observa*ons  (Obs).      

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Figure 11. Variance of temperature anomalies (upper panel) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (lower panel) against temporal resolution for the SWUS-averaged time series.

Figure  11.  Variance  of  temperature  anomalies  (upper  panel)  and  coefficient  of  varia*on  of  precipita*on  (lower  panel)  against  temporal  resolu*on  for  the  SWUS-­‐averaged  *me  series.      

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Figure 21. Models ranked according to normalized error score from EOF analysis of 18 (upper panel) and 16 (lower panel) performance metrics. The upper panel includes winter and summer mean diurnal temperature range (DTR), but 7 fewer GCMs. Ranking is based on the first 6 principle components (filled blue circles). The open symbols show the models’ error scores using the first 4, 5, and all principle components (PCs). The best scoring model has a normalized error score of 0.

Figure  21.  Models  ranked  according  to  normalized  error  score  from  EOF  analysis  of  18  (upper  panel)  and  16  (lower  panel)  performance  metrics.  The  upper  panel  includes  winter  and  summer  mean  diurnal  temperature  range  (DTR),  but  7  fewer  GCMs.  Ranking  is  based  on  the  first  6  principle  components  (filled  blue  circles).  The  open  symbols  show  the  models’  error  scores  using  the  first  4,  5,  and  all  principle  components  (PCs).  The  best  scoring  model  has  a  normalized  error  score  of  0.      

Mid  century  median  change  2040-­‐2069  16  cmip5  models  

rcp26  

rcp45  

rcp85  

Models:  • Noresm1m  • Canesm2  • Cnrmcm5  • Csiromk3.6  • Gfdlcm3  • Gfdlesm2g  • Gisse2r  • Inmcm4  • Mirocesm  • Mpiesmlr  • Mpiesmmr  • Ccsm4  • Cesm1cam5  • Hadgem2ao  • Mricgcm3  • Ipslcm5alr  

Mid  century  median  change  2037-­‐2066  28  cmip5  models  

rcp26  

rcp45  

rcp85  

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Figure 7. Mean temperature for DJF (a and b) and JJA (c and d) from NCEP (a and c) and from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (b and d).

Figure  7.  Mean  temperature  for  DJF  (a  and  b)  and  JJA  (c  and  d)  from  NCEP  (a  and  c)  and  from  the  CMIP5  mul*-­‐model  mean  (b  and  d).      

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Figure 4. Mean seasonal amplitude for temperature (a and b) and precipitation (c and d) from NCEP (a and c) and from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (b and d). Note that the legends have been reversed between the upper and lower plots so that red implies a more extreme temperature cycle and blue implies a more extreme precipitation cycle.

Figure  4.  Mean  seasonal  amplitude  for  temperature  (a  and  b)  and  precipita*on  (c  and  d)  from  NCEP  (a  and  c)  and  from  the  CMIP5  mul*-­‐model  mean  (b  and  d).  Note  that  the  legends  have  been  reversed  between  the  upper  and  lower  plots  so  that  red  implies  a  more  extreme  temperature  cycle  and  blue  implies  a  more  extreme  precipita*on  cycle.      

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Figure 13. Coefficient of variation of precipitation at temporal resolutions of 1 year and 8 years for all CMIP5 simulations and observations. Values were averaged over the SWUS domain. For each model, blue-filled circles show the ensemble average, yellow-filled circles show the first ensemble member, and the open circles show the remaining ensemble members. For the observations (Obs), the yellow-filled circle shows PRISM, the open circle shows CRU, and the red-filled circle gives their average.

Figure  13.  Coefficient  of  varia*on  of  precipita*on  at  temporal  resolu*ons  of  1  year  and  8  years  for  all  CMIP5  simula*ons  and  observa*ons.  Values  were  averaged  over  the  SWUS  domain.  For  each  model,  blue-­‐filled  circles  show  the  ensemble  average,  yellow-­‐filled  circles  show  the  first  ensemble  member,  and  the  open  circles  show  the  remaining  ensemble  members.  For  the  observa*ons  (Obs),  the  yellow-­‐filled  circle  shows  PRISM,  the  open  circle  shows  CRU,  and  the  red-­‐filled  circle  gives  their  average.      

1

Figure 1. SWUS mean annual temperature and precipitation bias by model. For each CMIP5 model, blue-filled circles show the ensemble average, yellow-filled circles show the first ensemble member, and the open circles show the remaining ensemble members. For the observations (Obs), the red-filled circle shows the average, the yellow-filled circle shows NCEP, and the open circles show CRU and PRISM.

SWUS  mean  annual  temperature  and  precipita*on  bias  by  model.  For  each  CMIP5  model,  blue-­‐filled  circles  show  the  ensemble  average,  yellow-­‐filled  circles  show  the  first  ensemble  member,  and  the  open  circles  show  the  remaining  ensemble  members.  For  the  observa*ons  (Obs),  the  red-­‐filled  circle  shows  the  average,  the  yellow-­‐filled  circle  shows  NCEP,  and  the  open  circles  show  CRU  and  PRISM.      

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Figure 20. Loadings of the first four principle components (PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4) from EOF analysis of 18 evaluation metrics (includes diurnal temperature range) and 30 of the full 37 GCMs. “Obs” indicates the observation dataset.

Figure  20.  Loadings  of  the  first  four  principle  components  (PC1,  PC2,  PC3,  PC4)  from  EOF  analysis  of  18  evalua*on  metrics  (includes  diurnal  temperature  range)  and  30  of  the  full  37  GCMs.  “Obs”  indicates  the  observa*on  dataset.      

Late  century  median  change  2070-­‐2099  28  cmip5  models  

rcp26  

rcp45  

rcp85