Climate Risk Assessment and

Management : Tamil Nadu State

Planning Commission and Regional

Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning

Systems

Presentation Overview

1. Introduction to Tamil Nadu

Climate Change agenda

2. RIMES Project Approach

3. Activities at TN SPC

Tamil Nadu: basic facts

• 11th largest State in India

• Area: 13,00582 sq. km.

• Population: 67.86 million

• Coastline 992 km

• Mountains: 784 km

• GDP/capita: $ 1642

• Annual RF: 945 mm

• Contribution of Agriculture To GDP: 18 %

• Dependence on Agriculture: 42% of population

Tamil Nadu CCA

• State articulates climate concerns in its 12th Plan document committing to inclusive, sustainable and climate resilient growth.

• State Action Plan for Climate Change documents State’s Vulnerability and Risks associated with Climate Change

• State Climate Change Cell mooted with information feed to Revenue Administration Disaster Management and Mitigation; Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Pubic health and Energy Departments

• RIMES collaboration to provide template and methodology

XII FYP plan features

Vision to accelerate growth in Agriculture:

122,00,000 people remain poor in Tamil Nadu

Decline in share of Agriculture to GDP, even though number dependent on Agriculture 42%

Structural shift towards the Tertiary Sector, exacerbates problems of Rural Poverty

Agriculture projected to grow at 5 % (up from 4% in the previous two Plan periods). Focus on Small and Marginal Farmers

Why a new tool kit is necessary?TN SPC and RIMES Collaboration

Integration of Climate Risk Management (CRM) into Development Planning process

A collaborative on going effort between the TN State Planning Commission and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Africa and Asia (begun 2011 with UNESCAP support).

� RIMES provides early warning on weather related events and decision support systems for contingency planning .

� TN SPC has the mandate to provide recommendations on development planning to TN on all sectors of the economy

� CRM adopted into Tamil Nadu’s XIIth FYP (2012-2017) and follow on CRM programs.

RIMES CRA methodology

• Traditional Risk Assessment Methodologies underestimated climate risks since focused on assessing a part of direct impacts, not factoring in indirect and cascading impacts on over all economy

• Traditional Risk Assessment Methodologies mostly focused on assessing high impact of extreme events and by and large ignored impact of low impact and high frequency events

• RIMES Risk Assessment methodology addressed these short comings.

Why a new tool kit is necessary?1. Low impact and high frequency risk

Case study: Vathrairupu in Virudhunagar district

�Rain in October, November 2011 impacted the flowering stage

�High temperature in March 10 to 24, 2012 affected these tender

mangoes (fall down)

Source: Dinamalar,2011

How climate is sensitive

to different crops?

Why a new tool kit is necessary?High frequency low impacts

Case Study: Impacts of Strong wind and heavy rain

�March 30, 2012 - 50 lakhs worth 15000 banana trees were lost in Theni district

�May 04 2011 – Lot of banana trees in Managuzhivillage, Coodalore Taluk in Nilgiri district were lost

�May 07-08 2012 - 1.5 Crores of banana trees, drumstick trees, coconut tree were damaged in Sinamanoor area of Theni district

Source: Dinamalar.

Multiple minor events

impact > 1 major events

(cyclone, flood or severe

drought)

Direct impacts

Case 1: Agriculture Impacts (crop damage)

Indirect impacts

• Income lost

• Shortage of crop

• Price increase

• Unemployment

• Rural to Urban migration

• Reduced quality life

• Psychological stress

• Credit risk

• Etc.

• Crops lost

Direct impacts

Case 2: Infrastructure damage (roads)

Indirect impacts

• 2 kms of road damaged

worth 5000 US$

(replacement cost)

• Road closure for more than 30

days.

• Traffic diversion – (more fuel

required for longer route)

• Heavy traffic on the other

areas

• Governments development

budget cutoff due to

unanticipated expenses

• Etc.

Sector

Weight Impact Climate Sensitivity

% Rs. Crores Billion $ High Medium Low

PRIMARY 18.2 294235.3 49.1

1. Agriculture

and Allied

activities

16.3 263518.4 43.9Production

loss√

Economic Sector - climate sensitivity I

SectorWeight Impact Climate Sensitivity

% Rs. Crores Billion $ High Medium Low

SECONDARY 32.9 531886.9 88.7

2. Manufacturing 24.3 392852.6 65.5 √

2.1 Food products 3.3 52949.7 8.9 Raw material shortage √

2.2 Cotton textiles 4.9 78570.5 13.1Raw material &

hydro-power shortage√

2.3 Chemical products 2.3 37150.2 6.2 Demand reduction √

2.4 Coal products 2.5 40139.3 6.7 Labour productivity √

2.5 Machinery and

equipment other

than transport

equipment

2.5 40566.3 6.8 Demand reduction √

2.6 Other Industries 0.4 6405.2 1.1 - √

3. Electricity, Gas

and Water Supply1.8 28609.9 4.8

Hydro-power

shortage√

4. Construction 6.2 100234.0 16.8 Labour productivity √

Economic Sector - climate sensitivity II

SectorWeight Impact Climate Sensitivity

% Rs. Crores Billion $ High Medium Low

TERTIARY 48.9 790555.3 131.8 √

5. Trade, Hotels and

Restaurants15.7 253818.4 42.4

Demand

reduction√

6. Transport, storage

and

communications

9.1 147117.6 24.6Demand

reduction√

7. Financing

Insurance, Real

Estates and

Business Services

13.2 213401.4 35.6Demand

reduction√

8. Community, Social

and personal

services

10.9 176217.8 29.4Demand

reduction√

Economic Sector - climate sensitivity III

Climate

Environment

(Agriculture Land)

Adapted from Sastri et al., 2003.

Negative

Impacts

Cascading impacts (Case of Indian Economy)

Economic consequences

Cascading links- Economical consequences

Sector (est.

Billion $)

Growth/Fall in

sector

Cascading Impacts Remarks

% (Billion $) % (Billion $)

Primary(11. 7)

-32.1% -3.5

Secondary (25.4)

-16.70% -4.3 0.52% fall for every 1%

fall in agriculture

Tertiary (68.8)

-7.7% -5.4 0.24% fall for every 1%

fall in agriculture

State GDP (105.8)

-12.9

Cascading impacts due to Drought 2012-2013

SR. No. Disasters No. of

Occurrences

Impact on GSDP Remarks

% (Billion $)*

1 Severe droughts @ 1 15% 20.0

2 Moderate droughts# 2 5% 13.4

3 Mild droughts## 2 1% 2.7

4 Cyclones 2 3% 8.0

5 Unseasonal rains/ floods 4 2% 10.7

6 Temperature, humidity

impacts on crops, animal

husbandry

10 0.1% 1.4

Total 56.0

(* Assuming an average GSDP per year of 133.34 Billion $)@ Severe- affects 4 seasons and over 75% of the state # Moderate- affects 3 seasons and 50% of the state## Mild- affects (only one season rains fail – either North East or Southwest season

Climate Risk Patterns - Tamil Nadu.

Direct

Impacts

Climate

Environment

(ex. Agriculture )

Negative

Impacts

Cascading impacts are

often large, but missed out

Economic Sectoral Impacts

Cascading

Impacts

Significance of Cascading impacts

CRM Report : UNDP supported.

• CRM Tamil Nadu study report

focusing on agriculture and allied

sectors prepared in collaboration

with State Planning Commission

(SPC)

Engagement with Stakeholders

•Draft CRM Report discussed at a State Level

Workshop organized by SPC

• Led to interest to explore adoption of CRM in

planning processes

• Consultation meetings with all climate sensitive

sectors held

•Action plan evolved for integration

Engagement with SPC

• Consultation meeting with all climate sensitive sectors held

• CRM Focal Points nominated from 17 Sectoral Departments

Progress and Achievements

• 12th Five Year Plan of State Planning Commission integrates CRM

ESCAP Supported RIMES Program

• ESCAP supported implementation of project- ‘Reducing risks

of tsunami, storm surges, large waves, and other natural

hazards’ in collaboration with WMO, in Tamil Nadu

• Supported the assessment of risks to coastal population in pilot

districts, and implementation of Climate Risk Management

Field Schools for Farmers

• Led to demonstration of value of

climate information in the pilot

district. Appreciated by State

Agriculture Dept.

• Being up-scaled

• With support from RIMES and UN ESCAP, SPC coordinating

the initiative on applications of CRM for planning in all climate

sensitive sectors

• Strategy to engage with climate sensitive sectoral departments in

phased manner evolved

• In 1st Phase detailed interactions have been held with:

1. Agriculture

2. Animal Husbandry

3. Energy

4. Public Health

Progress and AchievementsProgress and Achievements

A way forward

• RIMES collaborated closely with SPC utilizing the high capacity

and efficient governance systems in Tamil Nadu as test case

for development planning through integration of climate

information

• TN SPC experience reveals that managing current climate risks

effectively is the way to manage future climate change risks

• With this experience, replication is possible in other Member

States through Planning Institutions