Environmental Studies

Submitted to:Sir Moazzam

Submitted by:Muneeb Alam

Roll# 29BS-V

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A Report On

Impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

What is Climate? What is Climate change? Impacts and Effects of Climate Change

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGES:

-Plate tectonics Solar out put -Orbital variations -Volcanism -Ocean variability -Human influences

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN

Introduction Temperature Variation Change in Precipitation pattern Extreme Climatic Events in Pakistan  

Effects on Water Resources Ground Water Aquifer Depletion: Contamination - Ground and Surface Water: Increased Turbidity Flooding Major Adverse Effects:

Effects on Aggriculture Issues arising from Climate Change Required Adaptation

HEALTH IMPACTS

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

REFERENCES

INTRODUCTION:

Climate:

Climate is the average weather in a place over more than thirty years. To describe the regional climate of a place, people often tell what the temperatures are like over the seasons, how windy it is, and how much rain or snow falls. The climate of a regional depends on many factors including the amount of sunlight it receives, its height above sea level, the shape of the land, and how close it is to oceans. Since the equator receives more sunlight than the poles, climate varies depending on distance from the equator.

However, we can also think about the climate of an entire planet. Global climate is a description of the climate of a planet as a whole, with all the regional differences averaged. Overall, global climate depends on the amount of energy received by the Sun and the amount of energy that is trapped in the system. These amounts are different for different planets. Scientists who study Earth's climate and climate change study the factors that affect the climate of our whole planet.

Climate Change:

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change, more generally known as "global warming" or "anthropogenic global warming"

Changes in ocean circulation, in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or haze particles, and in the ice cover, have been invoked to explain the drastic change in weather and temperature patterns over the years. Like all over the world, in Pakistan too, these changes have resulted from the effects of human activities and the destruction of the earth's protective ozone layer. Although human induced warming is among the most

pervasive threats to the web of life, the burning of fossil fuels ; coal, gas and oil, is dangerous too, as it releases Carbon-dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. This carbon blankets the earth, trapping its heat, and causing global warming. This global warming is causing damage to Pakistan's environment, as well. Among the impacts felt and seen are biodiversity loss, rise in the sea level, increased draught, shifts in the weather patterns, increased flooding, changes in freshwater supply and an increase in extreme weather events. These could also lead to alterations in forests and crop yields. Not only that, climatic changes could also affect human health, animals and many types of eco-systems.

Impacts and Effects of Climate Change:

There is growing global consensus that climate change is humankind’s greatest threat in modern times and is likely to have profound consequences for socio-economic sectors such as health, food production, energy consumption and security and natural resource management.

The harmful impacts of this global warming effect are already manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which have been mounting in frequency and intensity. As a result, the world today suffers around 400-500 natural disasters on average in a year, up from 125 in the 1980s (Disaster Risk Reduction: Global Review 2007). 

According to the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, the evidence of predicted impacts of climate change is slowly unfolding.  Crop yield growth rates are declining in most parts of the world, partially as a consequence of rising temperatures, while increases in prevalence of climate-induced diseases have also been recorded. There is also evidence of accelerating recession of most glaciers on Earth, rainfall variability and changes in marine ecosystems. Another serious threat arising from climate change is to freshwater availability which is projected to decline especially in large river basins and adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s 

Climate change is also likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health. The projected increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves is expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat stress, especially in areas where people are not equipped to deal with warmer temperatures. To a lesser extent, increases in winter temperatures in high latitudes could lead to decreases in mortality rates. Climate change is also expected to lead to increases in the potential transmission of vector borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and yellow fever, extending the range of organisms such as insects that carry these

diseases into the temperate zone, including parts of the United States, Europe, and Asia. 

The observed effects of global warming so far are:

1. Increase in the mean global sea level (1-2mm per year over the last century);

2. Worldwide retreat of glaciers;3. Decrease in snow cover and thawing of permafrost;4. Shifts of plant and animal ranges;5. Earlier flowering of plants;6. Birds breeding seasons and emergence of insects;7. Increased events of coral bleaching. 

CAUSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES

Factors that can shape climate are climate forcing. These include such processes as

variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-

building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.

There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish

the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice

caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass.

Therefore, the climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new

external forcing.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures

global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global

and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[4]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore

influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in

controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in

determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean

circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago,

which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This

strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may

have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover. During the Carboniferous period,

about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale

storage of carbon and increased glaciations. Geologic evidence points to a "mega

monsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the super continent Pangaea, and

climate modeling suggests that the existence of the super continent was conducive

to the establishment of monsoons.

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the

oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal

areas than they are inland. A larger super continent will therefore have more area

in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents

or islands.

Solar output:

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and

short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does

today. If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water

should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of

water on the early Earth, in the Hadean and Achaean eons, leading to what is

known as the faint young sun paradox. Hypothesized solutions to this paradox

include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations

of greenhouse gases than currently exist .Over the following approximately 4

billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition

changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago

being the most notable alteration. These changes in luminosity, and the sun's

ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large

effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar

cycle and longer-term modulations. Solar intensity variations are considered to

have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and some of the warming

observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not

yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within

the sun as it ages and evolves. While most research indicates solar variability has

induced a small cooling effect from 1750 to the present, a few studies point toward

solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.

Orbital variations:

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara, and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

Volcanism:

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the

Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of

volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per

century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar

radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount

Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century (after

the 1912 eruption of Novarupta) affected the climate substantially. Global

temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount

Tarboro in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer. Much larger eruptions,

known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million

years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological)

time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle,

counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon

dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that

human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide

emitted by volcanoes.

Ocean variability:

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations

(years to a few decades) such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific

decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation,

represent climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales,

alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in

redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement

of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

Human influences:

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In some

cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and

unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), while in

other instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate

change have been argued for many years. Presently the scientific consensus on

climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase

in global average temperatures over the past several decades. Consequently, the

debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find

ways to adapt to change that has already occurred. Of most concern in these

anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil

fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere)

and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion,

animal agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play -

both separately and in conjunction with other factors affecting

climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN:

INTRODUCTION:

Pakistan is a developing country whose economy mainly depends on agriculture which is more susceptible to the effects of climate changes. Due to lack of modern technical resources, Pakistan does not have adequate monitoring systems for the prediction of likelihood of occurrence of extreme events, or the assessment of possible changes in weather patterns, thus making the task of developing short term response or disaster mitigation strategies extremely difficult. There are several aspects that are circumstantial to the effects of climate change. In a country such as Pakistan, the pressures generated as a directly result of climate change impact multiple sectors including water, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, livestock, costal zones, etc.

The Survey of Pakistan classifies the country into eight climatic zones, which roughly concur with the Koppen Geiger classification, where zones are defined on the basis of monthly temperature and precipitation data. According to the Koppen Geiger classification of climatic zones, where zones are defined on the basis of monthly temperature and precipitation data, there are 11 distinct as well as overlapping climatic zones in the country. These range from zones characterized by mild, moist winters and hot dry summers in the north to semi-arid and arid zones in the west and parts of the south. The north-eastern mountainous and sub-mountainous areas receive more than 1,700 mm annual precipitation with a major share (over 1,000 mm) from the summer monsoon. On the other hand, the extremely arid plains of southwest Balochistan province receive only 30 mm during the whole year. Thermal regimes exhibit extreme diurnal, seasonal, and annual variations as the temperatures can fall as low as -26°C over the northern mountains and go as high as 52°C over the central arid plains. In the semiarid plains, temperatures of 42°C are recorded at various stations in the months of May and June. Areas comprising Pakistan have seen several droughts, the most recent of which was the worst experienced for the last hundred years and affected several districts of Sindh and Balochistan provinces from 1999-2000. The drought is estimated to have affected over 3.3 million people and 30 million heads of livestock.

Temperature variation:

According to the recent study carried out by the met department, there has been a considerable temperature variation all over the country especially in the Northern Punjab and Potohar region as shown in figure-3, below, resulting in creating favorable conditions for the extreme weather patterns. The increased temperature pattern being experienced can be compared with global temperatures figure-4, (from 1860 – 2000) which is showing the same pattern as observed in Pakistan in the recent years.

Change in precipitation pattern

There is an appreciable variation in the precipitation pattern and has adversely impacted the Potohar region of Pakistan, which is solely depends on rain water for agricultural and drinking purposes. Table-1, shows below depicts the 10 years rain fall in Murree and Islamabad (catchments area of Rawal Lake) The variation in precipitation pattern ranges from +15 -20 %, thereby it indicates that Potohar region experiences the worst degree of precipitation variation.

Extreme Climatic Events in Pakistan  

2009:  Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm  occurred in 1977.

  2007:  Record heat wave gripped Pakistan uring June, 2007. The temperature of

48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929.

  2007 : Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1developed

in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran  coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during  the previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month.

2006 : In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185 deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring  eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed  at  least 35 lives (Associated Press) 

2005 : Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in  March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There  were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan.

2005 : During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous  areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought  extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers.

2005 : Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir  region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486  people during second week of February.

2004 : Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along  the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000  nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir. 

2003 : Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February  wasresponsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.

2003 : At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains  in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153  fatalities in the Sindh province.

2003: During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near  44°C.

2001:  621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July.

1999-2001: History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of    surrounding countries 

EFFECTS ON WATER RESOURCES

Ground Water Aquifer Depletion:

Over the period of time, considerable groundwater depletion has been observed which is primarily due to less recharge. Approximately 7-10ft/year ground water depletion has been observed. The major contributing factor towards is less \ recharge which is due to intense rains and quick run-off. Figure-7 shows statistics of groundwater depletion in Rawalpindi area

Annual Rainfall (mm)YEAR MURREE ISLAMABAD1995 1702.91996 2192. 1615.21997 2307. 1376.11998 1972.5 1413.81999 1897.3 1012.32000 1484.3 999.12001 1317.1 1472.12002 1264.4 885.42003 1520.5 1503.32005 1596.2 979.0

2006 1691.3 1598.0

Contamination - Ground and Surface Water:

There is a less intake of fresh water into water bodies due to less rains whereas, flow of contaminated water into surface water resources is on higher sides. This phenomena has under mind the benefits of dilution process and has resulted more bacterial contamination in water bodies. Table-2 & 3 shown below indicate high level of water contamination and water quality of various streams entering into Rawal Lake.

Increased Turbidity:

The effect of climate change on water resources is expected to be significant. Rawal Dam was constructed in 1960 on Korang River to meet the water supply requirement of Rawalpindi. At the time of its construction Rawal Lake was one of the cleanest drinking water lakes of the area but due to erosion in the catchments area, the turbidly of the lake ranges upto 2700 NTU. With the passage of time and unplanned urbanization in its catchments area the Rawal Lake water quality has deteriorated drastically with increased turbidity.

Flooding:

In general, increase in temperature could not only increase water demand because of higher evaporation rates, but may also increase rainfall due to additional moisture supplied to the clouds because of higher evaporation from the sea surface. Similarly, increased / intense rainfall is causing less ground water recharge, quick run-off and devastating flooding. Figure-9, below shows flash floods in 2001 in Rawalpindi-Pakistan.

Major Adverse Effects:

Following are the major adverse effects envisaged which are directly or indirectly related to water management;

Increased variability of Monsoon.

More rapid recession of KKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows.

Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline.

Increased risks of floods and drought and Increased Water Demand

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions- Food insecurity.

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish.

• Increased health risks (heat strokes, malaria and other vector-borne diseases).

EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE:

Pakistan is an agriculture-dependent country, with over 47% of its population earning their livelihood from agriculture. This sector contributes 24% to GDP. The Indus Valley, which is the cradle of Pakistan»s agriculture, is presently threatened by the vagaries of Climate Change, largely induced through anthropogenic interventions that result in global warming. While higher concentrations of carbon dioxide can have beneficial impacts on crops, rising temperatures and reduced precipitation play havoc with the biological complex.

Temperatures are predicted to rise by 3 degrees by 2040 and up to 5-6 degrees by the end of the century. Monsoon rains will be drastically reduced but have a much higher intensity. Droughts and floods are predicted for the whole of South Asia.

Issues arising from Climate Change:

Reduced water availability, which is altering the crop rotation and cropping patterns

Drastic reduction in cereal production, e.g wheat and rice, as well as in cotton and sugarcane

In southern Pakistan yields of major cereals predicted to decline by 15-20% by Regional Climate Change Models

In the northern area minor improvements in yield due to increased duration of growing period

Livestock production predicted to decline by 20-30%, creating crises in milk, meat and poultry supplies and pushing prices beyond reach of the average Pakistani Rangelands will be over-stressed from prolonged droughts and shifting human and livestock populations around riverine areas and in mountainous regions. This will reduce tree and shrub cover.

Pakistan is already amongst the most forest/tree resource-poor countries in the world with a meager 5.2% forest cover, and even that sparsely stocked.

Inland fisheries predicted to be reduced due to decreased water availability and changing river flows

Plant diseases, weeds and insect attacks will increase considerably, resulting in major crop losses

Fruits, vegetables and horticultural products are high-value exports for Pakistan.

A predicted reduction in these will severely impact our balance of payments.

The livelihood of farm communities will be affected, and marginalized groups like women, children and the elderly will be negatively impacted through widespread malnutrition.

Pakistan earns 70% of its foreign exchange from agriculture alone. Unless it maintains stable growth rates, its economy will suffer immensely.

Unless Climate Change trends are reversed and things return to normal,Agriculture will be the most seriously impacted sector. Without a clear-cutAdaptation strategy and the requisite resources and capacity building the medium To long-term prognosis is far from good!

The agriculture in the whole of the Indus Valley is under threat, resulting in direct and indirect impacts on agriculture that could cost billions of dollars. This threat translates into direct impacts to over 100 million people and indirect impacts to the entire burgeoning population of 180 million, which is projected to increase to 240 million by 2035.

Producing high delta water-consuming crops like sugarcane under a Climate Change scenario may no longer be feasible. Sugar prices have more than doubled over the past year, creating social unrest and political embarrassment

Required adaptation:

Pakistan needs to put in place immediate Adaptation Measures directed at itsAgriculture sector that will help stabilize its agricultural growth rate at around 5% above the population growth rate of 2.4%.

This needs: Investment in research and development that provides solutions to high

stress agriculture

Hi-tech meteorological services along with early warning systems to predict floods, drought, cyclones, tsunamis, wind shear, fog, hailstorms, etc.

Breeding of livestock species and multiplication of seed varieties that are resistant to drought

Building up food reserves to cater for extreme events

Development of an Action Plan that focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures to enable sustainable growth in agriculture

Financial resources to the tune of US $30 billion or more to address the needs of agriculture alone over the next 10 years

Know-how, farmer training and capacity building for the 8 highly diversified agro-ecological zones

Technology transfer in the area of renewable energy at farm level and green technologies to save the environment from the vagaries of Climate Change

Massive investment in forest and tree cover across the board with due attention paid to special ecologies, e.g. the coastal belt, where mangroves are the most suitable

Lastly, a major focus on the youth and children to prepare them to face the consequences of Climate Change. Their education and involvement are a vital part of any sensible strategy!

IMPACTS ON HEALTH:

While climate change affects multiple sectors, the effects on health are the only ones that pose a serious threat to long term sustainable development. However, in spite of this the area of Climate Change and Human Health is relatively under-developed as a formal research arena.

Understanding the effects of climate change on human health is the first step towards taking effective action for keeping these to a minimum. The capacity to respond to the negative health effects of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant, and up-to-date information pertaining to specific regions, countries, and localities, which is not yet available for developing countries. Of the 16 National Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change done between 2001 and 2007 only five were in countries of the developing world — India, Bolivia, Panama, Bhutan, and Tajikistan.

In Pakistan, as in other developing countries, apart from a dedicated few, health professionals have not come to the climate change debate. This project aims at bringing a change in the status quo by strengthening capacities for research on negative health effects of climate change. Implemented by LEAD Pakistan, through financial assistance provided by Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the project is based on the premises that, the educational and scientific base of Pakistan will have a direct bearing in increasing or constraining its capacity to adapt.

In line with the given philosophy, the present project will be undertaking capacity-building activities to improve the ability of those from Pakistan’s health related scientific community to interpret the information available about climate change and to understand climate related risks and vulnerabilities to human

health. This will in turn enable these experts to conduct much-needed vulnerability and impact assessments in the said area, which will form the basis for planning on appropriate adaptation strategies.

ECONOMIC IMPACTS:

Climate change is projected to have negative effects on the sustainable development ofpakistan, as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. The net effect of climate change on regional and national economies is projected to be largely negative. Loss of agricultural revenue and additional costs for managing water resources, coastlines, and disease and other health risks will be a drag on economic activity. Given long term, sustainable economic development and growth in per capita wealth, such economic impacts may comprise a declining portion of total economic welfare, and regional capacity to effectively manage climate risk is likely to rise. Global economic damage from the negative impacts of climate change is placed by the insurance industry at hundreds of billions of USD each year.The droughts have a great affect on the country’s economy. The State Bank of Pakistan calculated the effect of the drought to the tune of $ 927 million in the third quarter of the 2001-02 fiscal year. The anticipated GDP growth rate of 4.5% could not be achieved, rather, the GDP growth rate declined to less than 3% resulting in stagnation of the per capita income.

References:

www.wikipedia .org

Government of Pakistan, Environment and Urban Affairs Division, 1993 - EnvironmentalLegislation in Pakistan.www.google.comhttp://www.aph.gov.auhttp://www.ciesin.orghttp://cmsdata.iucn.org