CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR FOOD SECURITY:

Responding to Users Climate Information Needs

Milton M. Waiswa Senior Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, P.O. Box 7025 Kampala

Uganda. Email: milton.waiswa@meteo-uganda.net

Synthesis Workshop of the Advanced Institute on Climatic Variability and Food Security 9-10 May 2005, WMO, Geneva Switzerland

By

Research TeamMR. MILTON WAISWA, Senior Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, Kampala, Uganda.            

Dr. Jenipher Philips, Professor, Bard College, New York USA

MR. PETER MULAMBA, Lecturer for Climatology), Faculty of Agriculture, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

MR. ISABIRYE PAUL, Principal Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, Kampala, Uganda.

Research financially supported by START/IRI /Packard Foundation

What is the problem?Yearly Onsets for March-May season rains for Mabarara

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

70 75 80 85 90 95

Days

Start of seasonal rainfall varies from year to year, either being early, in time or late

What is the current scientific solution

Onset of wet season early Normal late

Rainfall amounts above normal below

End of season early normal late

Expected features of a basic climate forecast on seasonal rains

First question from a farmer

When should we plant? When are rains beginning?

Current Rural Development Paradigm

“ Providing farmers with needed climate information through linking indigenous and

scientific climate knowledge systems.”

“ building (Gorjestani 2000) on indigenous knowledge can be particularly effective in helping to reach the poor since indigenous knowledge is often the only asset they control, and certainly one with which they are very familiar”

Research Sites in Uganda

Characteristics of targeted farmers

Agriculture in Developed World

Subsistence Agriculture in Developing World(Uganda)

Objectives of Research

Identify details of how farmers traditionally uses local temperatures and winds to forecast onset of first rains;

Validate the indigenous rainfall indicators for onset of first rains

Develop statistical models for forecasting of first rains

Methodology of Research

Identification of usage was achieved through conducting individual and group surveys of farmers in Eastern (Tororo), Lake Victoria basin (Jinja), Central (Wakiso) and Western (Masindi) Uganda.

Validation of indigenous rainfall indicators is based on the climate data from synoptic weather stations in the four regions.

Model development was achieved by statistical linear regression of validated temperature indicators with rainfall onset dates formatted in pentads.

Sources of Data for Analysis

The indigenous meteorological knowledge of farmers. In order to capture this data, a field survey was conducted using a questionnaire that interviewers used to ask farmers about their knowledge related to local meteorological issues.

The second type of data was historical meteorological data acquired from the weather stations within the survey areas.

Results: Planting Time Indicators

Apart from Tororo, the main criteria farmers in these regions, use to determine the right time for planting their crops is when the rains start, and following the calendar months (Table 3.2.1).

At the onset of the rains, the farmers, wait for at least 2-3 showers then they consider planting their seeds.

However the onset of rains should be within the expected months for planting.

Determining the right planting time

Results: Indicators for onset of rainsMajor rainfall indicators farmers’ use to forecast onset of first rains (March-May)

The main 5 rainfall indicators farmers use to forecast rains are winds, temperatures, clouds, birds and trees.

The winds, temperatures and clouds are common atmospheric elements observed by both meteorologists and farmers.

However meteorologists document their records on different mediums like paper and computer, which can felicitate follow up analysis.

Appearance of Indicators

Month Masindi Wakiso Jinja Tororo

December 23 2 9 15January 49 8 33 34February 64 49 45 85March 64 12 18 60

Local Winds indicators

The winds used for rainfall forecasts mostly appear in the month of February followed by March. At times the winds appear in December and January. This means that these indicators can be used to forecast onset of first rains using mainly the month of February

Appearance of indicators

Month Masindi Wakiso Jinja Tororo

December 26 0 5 13

January 51 17 23 20

February 66 51 40 78

March 46 20 16 55

Indicator: Local increase in temperatures

The occurrence of these temperature conditions is mainly in the month of February. This suggests that the temperature conditions in February could be used to forecast onset of first rains.

Operational use of indicatorsThe change of wind direction and speed, are important features, farmers use to forecast seasonal rains. During dry season the wind blow in a particular direction and as the rainfall season is about to begin, the wind direction changes.

Operational use of indicators

How farmers use local temperatures

The majority of farmers use the increase in temperatures during a dry season as signals for early onset of first rains

Which season is easier to forecast

Rainfall Season

Survey Sites

Masindi Wakiso Jinja Tororo

1st season 79 71 91 932nd season 20 8 1 6

Both seasons   14 1  

The Table above reveals that the majority of farmers find it easier to forecast the first rains than the 2nd seasonal rains.

Survey Summaries

The direction and speed of winds at a point of time during the dry season are signals related to when the wet season is likely to start.

The increase in local temperatures during a certain period of the dry season signals when the wet season is likely to start.

Summary Survey findings

Farmers Interest %

Know the right planting time 36

Learn how to forecast rains 22

Advise on rainfall forecasts 14

Why changes in rainfall seasons 7

Using rainfall forecasts 3

Attend weather forecast seminars 2

Farmers interests to learn from a meteorologist

Key Approaches for Validation.Format onset dates based on Julian Calendar

Data set P 0.05 P 0.00130 0.360 0.46025 0.390 0.50020 0.440 0.57015 0.510 0.64010 0.630 0.760

With limited Data set use high significant correlation values

Use recent weather data(1990-2002)

Temperatures and onset dates

Statistical relationship between historical onset dates with average 5 day temperatures of the dry season pre the first wet season(March-May)

Validation: Temperatures

Validation: Masindi Temperature

Validation: Wakiso Temperatures

Validation: Jinja Temperatures

Validation: Tororo Temperatures

Regression: Masindi

356y = 16.297x - 393.673

Masindi linear model estimation------------------------------------------Multiple R 0.932R Square 0.869Adjusted R Square 0.853Standard Error 7.232

Regression: Namulonge

319y = -10.425x + 353.115

Namulonge linear model estimation--------------------------------------------Multiple R 0.909R Square 0.827Adjusted R Square 0.805Standard Error 4.285

Regression: Jinja

307y = 12.149x - 274.021

Jinja linear model estimation-----------------------------------------Multiple R 0.751R Square 0.563Adjusted R Square 0.509Standard Error 8.926

Regression: Tororo

7y = 3.889x – 62.967

Tororo linear model estimation--------------------------------------Multiple R 0.723R Square 0.523Adjusted R Square 0.463Standard Error 7.452

ConclusionThe above study reveals, the practices that farmers and meteorologist have in common in observing atmospheric conditions in pursuit to forecast seasonal rains for crop production.

There are also differences in the way both farmers and meteorologists observe and range climate scenarios each group can forecast.

The farmer’s effort of forecasting rains using their rainfall indicators highlights the importance of climate forecasts to them to ensure food security.

ConclusionThe challenges farmers experience in producing and using climate forecasts is a development activity very critical needed by meteorologists to address.

Through studying the indigenous climate knowledge systems, meteorologists can identify the priority climate information needed by farmers.

While the farmers, can use the increasing temperature at night during the dry season, to forecast onset of first rains. The models may be used to forecast the onset of the first rains 2-3 months in advance compared to farmer's traditional methods of just a few days.

Recommendations

Meteorologists practice using and improving on these forecasting models to provide farmers with additional climate forecasts related to onset dates of seasonal rains.

RecommendationsDevelop local specific models to forecast onset of seasonal rains using other indigenous rainfall indicators that are commonly observed by farmers and meteorologists.

Recommendations

Replicate the research in other region beyond the equator region.

THE ENDTHANK YOU