Climate Impact Company

Global Weather HighlightsWednesday, August 4, 2021

Driving Natural

Gas Prices

Up to $4.13 earlier today.

$4.19 was peak occurring in late

July.

This week’s trend has been price

rise.

Hot PJM forecasts the catalyst.

GFS is on its own with the extreme

heat.

Today’s 12Z GFS is likely a market-

mover.

Sensible Weather

Forecast (Using

DCA)

Using data point DCA, gauging

the extreme heat risk vs. natural

gas price potential can be

estimated.

Threshold for DCA is 97F which

occurred with $4.19 price peak.

This time around, GFS forecasts

100F (or higher).

ECM ENS is in 92-95F range.

A large difference!

Repeat of 97F is reasonable; 100F

is unlikely.

North Atlantic

Tropics

August SLOWLY becomes active.

But! September is the BIG month!

Currently, ECM ENS 15-day rainfall

forecast indicates activity stays in

tropics.

Short-term Rainfall

Forecast for U.S.

Heavy rains over Continental

Divide past few days breaks.

Remainder of that rain drifts

across North-central/Midwest U.S.

through weekend.

Not much rain Canadian

Prairies/North-central U.S.

Western Corn Belt receives

beneficial rain but accumulates

over 5-day period and not

everyone receives the rain.

Heaviest rain this week on East

Coast.

Models Disagree on Medium-range

Forecast…Drier GFS is most likely!

Warm-to-Hot Regime Returns Peaking in

6-10 Day Period

Elsewhere: South America Chill Watch!

Southeast Europe/Turkey Drought

Continues; Western Russia/Black Sea Wet

Australia Climate Forecast: Drought

Avoidance!

IOD/ENSO Outlooks From Australia

Bureau of Meteorology