USING THE FOREST VEGETATION SIMULATOR TO MODEL STAND DYNAMICS UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF CHANGING

CLIMATE

Climate-FVSVersion 0.1

Developed by :Nicholas L. Crookston, USDA-FS, RMRS, Moscow, IDGary E. Dixon, (Retired) USDA-FS, FMSC, Fort Collins, COGerald E. Rehfeldt, (Retired) USDA-FS, RMRS, Moscow, ID

Presentation Road Map

Background on Base FVS

Background on Climate Models

Climate-FVS Architecture

Climate-FVS “How to”

Description of FVS

FVS is a distance-independent, individual-tree forest growth model widely used in the United States to support forest management decision-making

Individual stands are the basic projection unit and projections are dependent on interactions among trees within stands, as well as site and stand conditions.

FVS allows users to compare management scenarios, to meet landowner objectives.

Extensions to FVS model the impact of disturbance-causing agents (fire, insects, and disease)

Variants of FVS

The component models differ depending on the geographic region represented by regionally specific model variants

Coefficients are estimated using available data from the variant’s geographic region

Each variant is a self-contained program executable written in FORTRAN (FORmula TRANslation)

Under development

FVS Basic Operation

FVS needs a keyword file to runKeywords are mnemonic words with

associated data that provide information to FVS

Keywords are used to enter stand and tree information describe management treatments control the printing of output adjust model estimates

Suppose

prepares the

keyword file for

you and

executes the

FVS variant of

choice

Processing Sequence

Initialize Stand

Simulation

Individual Tree Growth

(DBH & HT)Mortality

Fire and Fuels Adjustments

Crown Change Regeneration

Performs Cutting Activities

Report ProjectedConditions13 2

Insect and Pathogen Adjustments

End Stand Simulation

Growth Cycle

Prior to Projection

General Circulation Models

Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis

CGCM3-A2 CGCM3-B1 CGCM3-A1B

Met Office Hadley Centre –UK (HADMC3) HADMC3-A2 HADMC3-B2

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory -Princeton University, NOAA Research (GFDLCM21)

GFDLCM21-A2 GFDLCM21-B1

Emission Scenarios

Example of predicted changes in climate

Example of Viability Scores

Viability Scores* Location on Gifford Pinchot NFCODES: PSME TSHE PIPO

1990 0.973 0.96 0.376

2030 0.96 0.656 0.29

2060 0.857 0.236 0.546

2090 0.877 0.131 0.596

* Lat: 46.67, Long: 121.54, Elev: 2583, based on Hadley A2 Scenario

Douglas-fir climate profile-125°

-120°

-120°

-115°

-115°

-110°

-110°

-105°

-105°

35° 35°

40° 40°

45° 45°

stays

newrecede

Douglas-firclimate profile

location change

(current to 2060)

Climate-FVS: Architecture

Base FVS assumes site is constant over time, this assumption is not tenable under changing climate.

The current structure of FVS to apply management has not changed

Climate-FVS does NOT contain a climate model, it uses species viability scores.

The species viability scores are for 75 western U.S. species predicted from seven future climate scenarios (presently based on Rehfeldt et al, but user could use any source of scores)

Viability scores are used to compute mortality rates and modify FVS-predicted growth rates.

Changes to the model under Climate-FVS

Carrying capacity may changeAdditional species specific mortalitySpecies Establishment changesGrowth is impacted

by genetics by site quality changes

Site Carrying Capacity

Changes maximum density as a function of climate.Presently FVS uses Maximum SDI or BA as a

measure of carrying capacity and uses it to compute density related mortality.

These maximum densities are typically species based and the maximum for the stand varies based on the basal area-weighted average maximum

Climate-FVS computes a proportional change in carry capacity, where the viability scores are used instead of basal area-weighted to compute maximum density.

Additional Species Specific Mortality

Additional species specific mortality is applied to all species with a viability score below 0.50.

As the viability score decreases, the mortality rate increases.

The mortality rate is proportional to the viability score.

Species Establishment

Climate-FVS will establish 500 seedling/acre when stand density falls below a stocking threshold

The four most viable species will be regenerated

The number of trees of each species will be apportioned based on the relative viability scores

The consequence is that more trees of the most viable species will be regenerated

If no species are viable, none are regenerated.

Growth

Site quality If the stand site quality changes due to climatic

change, growth will be affected. The Annual Dryness Index (ADI) is used as an

indicator of site quality change. As ADI increases or decreases compared to contemporary, it proportionally affects Site Quality.

Tree genetics Trees growing on sites they are adapted for grow

faster than those growing on site they are maladapted for.

Transfer distances, seed zones

Growth modifiedbased on Seed Transfer Distance

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250 MAT at seed source: -2 CMAT at seed source: 2 CMAT at seed source: 4 CMAT at seed source: 8 C

Mean temp. of the coldest month transfer distance (⁰C)moved to colder climates moved to warmer climates

3-yr

Ht

(cm

)

Leites , L. (preliminary work, Univ. of Idaho)

How To Run Climate-FVS

Obtain climate executable from FMSCAdditional input file needed that contains

viability scoresOne additional keyword is mandatory

(CLIMDATA), that specifies the location of the viability scores files, and specifies the GCM scenario to be used.

Four other option keywords can me used to change the assumptions on climate change impacts on growth, mortality, and regeneration.

Example of additional input file needed

A source of the climate and species viability data file is at this web address: http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/customData/fvs_data.php.

Filename: FVSClimAttrs.csv

Four Optional Keywords

AutoEstb: Signal that Climate-FVS automatic establishment logic is turned on and that the base FVS automatic establishment features are turned off.

GrowMult :Specify a species-specific adjustment of the growth-rate multiplier computed by Climate-FVS.

MortMult :Specify a species-specific mortality multiplier.

MxDenMlt: Specify an adjustment of the maximum density multiplier computed by Climate-FVS.

Climate-FVS Reports

Main Output File – Options Selected by input lists viability scores by species

Climate Reports none yet developed see effects in standard output reports

Compare Climate Scenarios

Compare Species by Climate Scenarios

Compare Scenarios

98%

1% 1%

Species Composition by Basal Area 2006

Live DF Live RC Live WH

BASE

99%

0% 1%

Species Composition by Basal Area 2096

Live DF Live RC Live WH

99%

0% 1%

HADMC3_B2 Species Composition by Basal

Area 2096 Live DF Live RC Live WH Live GF Live WP

100%

0% 0%

HADMC3_A2 Species Composition by Basal

Area 2096 Live DF Live GF Live WP

GCM Scenario

Climate-FVS

Nicholas L. Crookston

USDA- Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Research

Station,Moscow, Idahoncrookston@fs.fed.us

Forest Management Service CenterUSDA- Forest ServiceFort Collins, COwo_ftcol_fvs@fs.fed.us

Questions?