Climate Forecasting – the Southwest Pacific experience

Dr Jim Salinger,

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research,

Auckland, New Zealand

The Island Climate The Island Climate UpdateUpdate

Climate Prediction in the South Pacific

Observations and Forecast GuidanceMultinational CollaborationThe Seasonal OutlookValidationApplicationsConclusions

Climate Prediction in the South Pacific

Climate Prediction Procedure

Figure 1: Preparing the ICU together

Observations

Forecasts

Climatology Background

Products

EXPERT ASSESSMENT

El NiñoEl Niño La NiñaLa Niña

ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO):

Sea temperature difference from average

•Warmer in tropics•Cooler in much of SW Pacific

•NE movement of SPCZ

•Eastward extension of TC region

•Cooler in tropics•Warmer in much of SW Pacific

•SW movement of SPCZ

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO):

Climatology Tropical Cyclone Risk

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

120oE 150oE 180o 150oW 120oW 40oS

20oS

0o

120oE 150oE 180o 150oW 120oW 40oS

20oS

0o

Climate Outlook: Observations

Outgoing Longwave Radiation

Climate Outlook: ENSO Guidance

Summary of main seasonal ENSO model resultsClimate Model or Group JFM 2005 AMJ 2005 JAS 2005

POAMA (Australia) Warm Neutral Neutral

CPC CCA (USA) Warm Warm Neutral

COLA (USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable

ECMWF (UK) Neutral Neutral Unavailable

LDEO(4) (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral

NCEP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral

NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral

SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Warm Neutral Neutral

NASA-NSIPP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral

JMA (Japan) Warm Warm Unavailable

SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable

CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Multinational CollaborationSources of South Pacific rainfall data

American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu

Involvement from:

SOPACNew Zealand Agency for International DevelopmentSouth Pacific Regional Environment Programme, SPREPWMO Sub Regional Office, ApiaAustralian Bureau of MeteorologyMeteo FranceFiji Meteorological ServiceNOAA National Weather Service, HonoluluNOAA Climate Prediction CenterInternational Research Institute for Climate Prediction, IRICP Monthly teleconference:

Melbourne, Noumea, Auckland, Wellington, Nadi, Papeete, Honolulu, Washington, New York

Last Month’s Climate

Rainfall and OLR anomalies

Dec 2004

-30 -20 -10 10 20 30

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Pitcairn

Samoa

TongaNiue

E KiribatiPapua New-Guinea

N Cook Is

S Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati Line Is

Tuvalu Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

EQUATOR

Wallis& Futuna

Outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies for December 2004

Anomalies December 2004 Actual

Sea Temperatures

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Samoa

TongaNiue

E KiribatiPapua New-Guinea

S Cook Is

N Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati Line Is

Tuvalu Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

Pitcairn

EQUATOR

Wallis& Futuna

Sea surface temperature anomalies (C) for December 2004

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Samoa

TongaNiue

E KiribatiPapua New-Guinea

S Cook Is

N Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati Line Is

Tuvalu Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

Pitcairn

EQUATOR

Wallis & Futuna

Mean sea surface temperatures (C) for December 2004

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Pitcairn

Samoa

TongaNiue

E KiribatiPapua New-Guinea

N Cook Is

S Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati Line Is

Tuvalu Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

EQUATOR

Wallis& Futuna

Rainfall outlook map for Jan-Mar 2005

NO FORECAST

NO FORECAST ABOVE

BELOW

BELOW

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

Validation and Accuracy

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Australia

NewZealand

Fiji

NewCaledonia

Vanuatu

SolomonIslands

Pitcairn

Samoa

Tonga

Niue

EasternKiribati

PapuaNew Guinea

S. CookIslands

SocietyIslands

WesternKiribati

TuvaluMarquesasIslands

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

150 160 170 180 170 160 150 140 130

Validation scores (%) for 3-month rainfall outlooks

Tuamotu Is

N.CookIslands

50%

40%

60%

+

50%

_

50%

50%

80%

70%

60%

70%70%

Validation of 3-month rainfall outlooks

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Forecast number skill, % better than chance % of correct forecas ts

• Niue– Used for disaster preparation, crop sowing, health

• Solomon Islands– Input into public awareness information on tropical

cyclones• Cook Islands

– Advice to farmers of impending wet periods– Advice to pearl industry

• Tonga– Users are National Disaster Office, Water Board,

Electric Power Board, Defence Services and Visitors Bureau

Feedback

• Samoa“We, in the Pacific have now come about to realizing the

potential usefulness and appropriateness; especially in having a more comprehensible and more knowledgeable tool of assisting our people; plan and prepare adequately for the months ahead. I commend and congratulate the producers and contributors of the Island Climate Update, and; especially the donors for without this financial support, this most valuable and useful tool to the Pacific Is shall never come forth.”Mr. Faatoia Malele, Acting Director, Samoa Meteorological Service, February 2001.

Feedback

SummaryMulti-national collaboration– Responsible for the success

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction– Major research and application for small island

states

SummaryReasonable predictability in large-scale climate– rainfall, wind patterns, Southern Oscillation

trendsProduced through multinational effort– Input from climate centres throughout the

South Pacific, supported internationallyUseful user feedback– preparation for floods and droughts– tropical cyclone guidance

The FutureRevamping ICU with new tools and products

- soil moisture- links to national and regional programmes - part of regional climate information system

WSSD follow upMillennium development goals

- PI-GCOS - adaptation studies- UNFCCC