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Climate Commons
Stephanie B. OhshitaAss’t Professor, USF Dept. of Environmental
ScienceGuest Lecture in ENVA 109
10 March 2005
Overview
A few points on climate science Defining the climate commons Institutions that shape human
responses to climate change Negotiating international responses:
stories from Buenos Aires to Beijing The Kyoto Protocol and beyond
Climate Science
Increased emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) from human activities (e.g., burning
fuel)
Rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs
Greater trapping of heat (infrared radiation) and rising temperatures
Impacts: melting of polar icecaps, rising sea level, changes in rainfall and storm patterns, coral bleaching, disruption of ecosystems . . .
The Greenhouse Effect
Projected Temperature Increase
(ºC, annual average, for IPCC SRES scenario A2)
Climate Impacts Are Happening Now!
More than 1/3 of coral reefs worldwide have died due to temperature increase and pollution.
Recent heat waves have caused record numbers of deaths.
Tundra is thawed longer, preventing the movement of oil equipment.
The timing of bird migrations and insect lifecycles has shifted, resulting in starvation.
Defining the Climate Commons
“atmospheric commons” clarification on “commons” -- a socially
regulated space, with clear rights and responsibilities (Athanasiou & Baer)
Hardin actually talking about “open access regimes” without rules: The Tragedy of Unregulated Open Access Resources
can view the climate challenge as one of specifying property rights, preferably public, and rules for the atmospheric commons
Other Views of the Climate Commons
a matter of energy, more than environment, since main source of GHG emissions is energy consumption
a matter of economic development, more than environment, since energy use is crucial for the economy
a matter of equity, more than environment, since the distribution of emissions and impacts is unequal
The 3Es (+1) of Climate
Energy
Environment
Economy
Economy affected by costs of climate change
damages and mitigation.
Climatic disruptions (e.g. storms, species loss) due to fossil fuel
consumption.
Economic development influenced by energy pricing and availability.
Energy consumption influenced by economic activity, investment in cleaner technologies.
Energy consumption influenced by changing climate and
mitigation efforts.
Extent of climate change damages influenced by
investment in mitigation.
Equity
CO2 Emissions
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Indonesia
South Korea
Australia
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
China
USA
Mtce
19902000
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
India
Indonesia
China
South Korea
Japan
Germany
Russia
Australia
USA
tce/person
19902000
Energy Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Primary Energy Consumption (EJ)
United States
China
FSU/Russia
Japan
Germany
India
South Korea
Australia
Indonesia
Overview
A few points on climate science Defining the climate commons Institutions that shape human
responses to climate change Negotiating international responses:
stories from Buenos Aires to Beijing The Kyoto Protocol and beyond
UN Climate Institutions
More Climate Institutions
Int’l: UNFCCC, IPCC, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank
Nat’l: Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Economy, Trade, Industry, Environment
Sub-nat’l: States, municipalities For-Profit: multi-national corporations Non-Profit: Pew Center, Sky Trust, etc.
Structure of the Kyoto Protocol
based on historical distributions of emissions “common but differentiated responsibilities” focuses on emission reduction targets for
some (Annex I Parties) Timeframe: 1st Commitment Period 2008-12 three flexibility mechanisms:
Emissions Trading (ET) Joint Implementation (JI) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Kyoto Targets
Negotiating Climate Responses
Coalition of the willing (EU, Japan, NZ)
Coalition of developing countries (G77, China, India)
Looking to leverage (Russia, Pakistan)
Coalition of oil and coal (OPEC states, US, Australia)
China 3Es: Interests and Trends
Economic Development: Economic Growth, Industrial Modernization,
Market Development
Environment: Improve Water, Air, and Waste; SO2 (not CO2)
of Main Concern
Energy: Improve Efficiency and Reduce Pollution; Coal
Dominant; Growth in Electricity, Oil, Natural Gas
China’s Stance on Climate Change
International: “Two-Front Diplomacy” (1) No Commitment; Industrialized Nations
Responsible; Push for Technology and Funds (2) Interaction of Energy and Environment
Bureaucracies with International Community
Domestic: Actions Without Climate Policy Energy and Economic Reforms Improved
Energy Efficiency Growth in CO2 Emissions Slowed
Japan 3Es: Interests and Trends
Economic Development: Recover From Economic Slump; Improve
Financial Institutions
Environment: Climate Change Prominent; Also Smog,
Dioxin, Waste
Energy: Diversify Supply; Conserve; Promote
Renewables
Japan’s Stance on Climate Change
International: Walking a Fine Line Invested in Kyoto Protocol, But Pressure
From US, Others Pursuing Clean Development
Mechanism Domestic: Past Achievements,
Present Challenges Must Reduce Growth in Residential,
Transport Emissions Despite High Profile, Climate Change
Policy Has Few Concrete Actions
COP10, Buenos Aires
COP10 Plenary Session
COP10 Side Event: Asia
COP10 Side Event: Equity
COP10 EU Pavilion
Asian Developing Countries’ View
“Though India,like other developing countries, has not taken specific commitments to
mitigate CO2 emissions, it is making progress in this direction” through energy price reform, energy sector deregulation, and promotion of energy efficiency and
renewables.US demands for developing country
commitments willfully ignore these signs of progress.
--Rajendra Pachuri, President of Tata Energy Research, Chair of IPCC (Worldwatch 2002)
Beyond Kyoto
More emphasis on sustainable development
Greater attention to equity concerns in the “atmospheric commons”
Possible “orchestra of treaties” Energy efficiency treaty Renewable energy treaty Carbon sequestration treaty Zero emissions treaty
