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CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS
Giovanni Kappenberger
MeteoSwiss
CH-6605 Locarno Monti
Switzerland
Roma, November 16th 2005
CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS
Glaciers:Indicators ofclimatic changes
1. ARCTIC2. ALPS3. HIMALAYA
Paradies Glacier and Adula GR/TI-Switzerland, 1930 A.Gansser and 2001 G.Kappenberger
1. ARCTICCoburg Island and Pond Inlet, CA
1975
next picture
1975
Coburg Island, North Water, CDN
Coburg IslandLaika Ice cap
LANDSAT
Laika ice cap and Laika glacier, 1971
Laika Glacier 2005, and 1971
Earth-google, 2005Laika Glacier under a thin Ac layer
Laika Glacier 2005 and before, in 1971
Earth-google, 2005
Coast line
Pond Inlet, summer precipitation
Pond Inlet, summer precipitation (May-September)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
mm
Mising coloumn = missing data
Pond Inlet, summer temperature
Pond Inlet, summer temperatures (June-August) 1976-2004
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
197
6
197
8
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
De
gre
e C
Mean summer max temp Mean summer mean temp Mean summer min temp
Consequences of a warming Arctic? Numerous!
2. ALPSBasodino glacier, mass balance
palina
1
2fascia
345
Basodino glacier, mass balance 1992-2005
Ghiacciaio Basodino - Mass balance
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
cm W
ater
Equ
ival
ent
Accum. Ablat. Balance
Basodino glacier /Cumulated mass balance
-500
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
cm W
ater
Equ
ival
ent
winter (blue) summer (red) and yearly mass balance
-3 m water eq.
Cumulated mass balance
Athmospheric summer warming over Milan
Somma gradi positivi700 hPa Milano, V-IX
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
195
41
955
195
61
957
195
81
959
196
01
961
196
21
963
196
41
965
196
61
967
196
81
969
197
01
971
197
21
973
197
41
975
197
61
977
197
81
979
198
01
981
198
21
983
198
41
985
198
61
987
198
81
989
199
01
991
199
21
993
199
41
995
199
61
997
199
81
999
200
02
001
200
22
003
200
42
005
Anno
som
ma
gra
di
per
5 m
esi
esti
vi
In half a century the 5 summer months, May to September, show an increasing sum of positive temperature values at 700 hPa from about 300 to 450 degrees.
This correspondsto 30 degrees a month, or one degree a day.
- Climbing of zero degree line: 150 to 200 m
Temperature trend in the Swiss Alps, Säntis 2500 m
Time-hight section of relative decadal Swiss snow day trends in %/year
SNOW TREND
Blue: positive trends, red: negative trends.
Filled circles with black border show a significant trend.
Scherrer 2004
www.meteoswiss.ch
Loss of snow and glaciers, what can we do?
Andermatt
Verbier
Flood in the Alps in August 2005
During the „multi-secular event“rain fell up to 3400 m and founda lot of debris in the mountains, due to:- glacial retreat- ice exposure- retreating permafrost
Heavy precipitation hit the northen Swiss Alps,
21-23 August
2005.
Engadina Bassa, GR
Brienz, BE
Permafrost in the Swiss Alps - PERMOS
Temperature evolutionof permafrost
Murtel-Corvatch, 11.5 m deep,15 years of data
C.Roth.
Changes: Flowering of “anemone bianca”
PIENA FIORITURA DELL'ANEMONE BIANCOPrato Sornico, 1957-2002
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Anno
Gio
rni a
par
tire
da in
izio
ann
o
mar
ch
Wood anemoneAnemone nemorosa L.
Change in the alpine Flora
On 10 summits of the Bernina region GR, Swiss AlpsUni Zürich and Hannover, October 2005 (AP)
3262 m
2959 m
Ca. 1930 1980 2005
- More then a doubling of the number of species- Acceleration of the increasing amount of species
Climbing vegetation !
Treeline –Onsernone: 2000m. Forest limit
Climbing vegetation ! Climbing trees !
Treeline: 2000 m. Forest limit
Summer 2005: in the Onsernone TI/CHLarix decidua was foundat 2300 m
Change of animals behavior!
Marmot travels up the Basodino glacier,on May 18th 2005, during 2 h,from 2400 to 3150 m
NOAA, Everest 28.01.2004
3. HIMALAYA
Accumulation; yearly layers
Gangchenpo,
Yala glacier, 5200 m, 1991 and 1992
Sampel site and results
Langtang, Lirung Glacier and Yala Glacier
19911992
L: Lirung and Y: Yala Glacier. Ky: Kyangjing
L
Y
Ky
Samples1992
Langtang-Lirung Glacier, surface lowering 1991-92
1991-1992
Reference:Intersection ofnear moraineand far mountain.
Lowering of glacier surface about 5 m in one year
Picture of 1992, with references to 91
Langtang, Kyangjing 3900 m
DHM weather station KyangiingGlaciological work
DHM Temperature and precipitation trend al KTM
Variation of Winter Precipitation at Kathmandu Airport
y = 0.4905x + 36.845
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Pre
cipi
tatio
n in
mm
W inter Precipitation (mm) Linear (Winter Precipitation (mm))
Climate Change
Mean annualmaximum
temperature trend
Warming since 1977:– 0.06oC to 0.12oC/yr in
the northern highaltitude
– 0.03oC/yr in thesouthern plain
DHM
Annual temperature trend(Kathmandu)
Warming: 0.05oC/yr
Annual mean temp. with trend in deg C at Kathmandu
16,0
16,517,0
17,5
18,0
18,519,0
19,5
20,0
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Annual mean temp. Linear (Annual mean temp.)
Temperature evolution in Nepal (DHM)
Shresta, 1999
: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
The atmosphere in summer on the southern side of the Himalaya
Warming of the atmosphere in summer on the southern side of the Himalaya
New Delhli Radiosond: zero degree height June, July, August, September
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
m
june july august september Linear (june) Linear (august) Linear (july) Linear (september)
Each pointis the monthlymean of thezero degreehight of theNew Delhi00 utcsounding
Radiosond and atmospheric warmingNew Delhli Radiosond: zero degree height
June, July, August, September
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
m
june july august september Linear (june) Linear (august) Linear (july) Linear (september)
- In 30 years the zero degree line climbed in summer about 100 to 200 m, in June more than 300 m
- Difficulties in evaluating possible sistematic error, (resulting slope could be larger)
Changes in the circulation? in the convection?
Possible changes in the dinamic of local winds and convective clouds. Langtang region.
Kappenberger et al 1993
A recent extreme event? Big avalanche on Mt. Kangru, 20 October 2005
K: Mt. KangruPOK: PokharaB: Bhairahawa
K
B
The storm of 20th Oct. 2005: was it an extrem one?
Daily Precipitation Oct 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 3 5 7 9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
mm
Pokhara Bhairahawa
K: Mt. KangruP: PokharaB: Bhairahawa
K
P
B
Extreme precipitation events on high mountains
???Was the recent avalanche accident in the Annapurna region of Nepal (20th Oct. 05) a consequence of an exeptional storm ???
Avalanche at Tilicho Peak. 29th Oct. 1980Same region, exactly 25 y earlier
Tilicho Peak, 7132 m, Annapurna region
Ice avalanche:
Picture sequence:
1. from the side By G.KappenbergerAnd
2. From the frontBy M.Braud
1
2
Manaslu, center and Pisang P. left.Mt. Kangru to the left
Base Camp
From the Base Camp: by M.Braun
A few minutes after the avalanche
CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS
SUMMARY-Three different mountain regions, Arctic, Alps and Himalaya show a strong glacier retreat due to:- atmospheric warming with warmer and longer summers. - zero degree line and snow line up by 100 to 300 m in the last decades.- precipitations show a big and increesing variability, also because of athmospheric circulation. Recent events (Swiss Alps and Nepal Himalaya) remembre us that heavy precipitation can hit persons and properties, in the mountains and in the lowland.
- CHANGES in the mountains environment are of a wide range. They concern an enormous spectrum of fields. Only a very few (personal) exemples (mainly in the glaciological field) have been presented.
CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS
THE END
THANK YOU
Paradies Glacier and Adula GR/TI-Switzerland, 1930 A.Gansser and 2001 G.Kappenberger
Summer temperature at Grand St Bernard
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
°C
Estate 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Estate)
Permafrost surface: warming of the soil
Early ice exposure
Griesglacer, August 2003
Foto: F. Funk-Salamì
Extreeme retreat of glaciers
Cumulated massbalance since 1960 maximum loss in 2003
2003
0
-5
-10
-15Cu
mu
late
d m
assb
alan
ce (
m W
E)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
In one summer loss of 3% of the icevolume
2002
Daten: SANW/VAW