Climate Change, Water and Food Security

in the Mediterranean and in West Africa

What strategies ?

Guillaume BenoitGeneral Engineer , permanent member of CGAAER (France)

Member of the international panel of experts in CGDA (Morocco) and of the panel of experts on sustainable agriculture and food in the FAO

Coordinator/rapporteur for the SESAME SeminarsChair of the FWP Water and Food Security Working Group

A North/South cross- analysis from the experience developed in the Water

and Food Security Seminars in theMediterranean (SESAME)

2013, 2014 et 2015

WWF7 KoreaRegional Process (Mediterranean)2015, April 14

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From WWF 6 (Marseille 2012) to COP 21 (Paris 2015)

WWF6 Marseille 2012 SESAME 1, 2 and 3

WWF7…(>) … COP 21

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Climate Change, Agriculture, Forestry and OtherLand Use (AFOLU) and water : the big issues

Climate Change => majors risks of increasing food inse curity (IPCC)� Yield decline� Breakage caused in food systems by droughts, floods ..� Endangering rural livelyhoods due to insufficient access to irrigation

water and declining agricultural productivity� Soaring world prices� 600 more millions hungry by 2050 ? � Migrations, instabilities

Global Challenge: combining adaptation, mitigation and growth/ food securityFeed 9,5 billion in 2050, = need « Climate smart agriculture »Eradicate hunger and poverty, Create jobs (300 million in Africa)Maintain stability

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The Mediterranean and West Africa:Climate change world hotspots

Already a calamity in Africa and South Mediterranean: too much or not enough water, crop losses

Less water / rainfall and run-off

More droughts and floods

More water needs for Agriculture

Problems in:agricultural productivity,access to water for irrigation

Mutant “Terroirs”, migration, instability

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No Climate solution without the AFOLU (agriculture, forest and soils) contribution to mitigation

Acting on the 3 mitigation levers : reducing emissions + C storage + substitution (bio- products)

= 20 to 60% of the global potential by 2030 (IPCC 2 014)

Two global priorities: restore degraded lands back up and dynamically manage the forest / timber industry

Acting on a plurality of levers: Ex France (CGAAER, 2014)AFOLU = ¼ of the 2030 national goal for mitigation (-40%)- Agro-ecological transition / 12-15 Mt CO2- Preserving farmland and grassland / 8-10 Mt CO2- Reducing food waste / 8-10 Mt CO2- Forest Storage / 3-5 Mt CO2- Bioproducts substitution (wood,bioenergy ..) / 25-30 Mt CO2

But no food security nor mitigation without adaptat ion, and therefore without better water management

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SESAME : a North/South reflection platform (lead : CGDA, CGAAER, AFD…)

Food security /resource management / sustainable territo ry development

Sesame 1 (water) Montpellier, 2013 Sesame 2 (family agriculture) Meknès, 2014Sesame 3 (climate change), Paris, 2015

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3 sub-regions representative of global issues and div ersity

North Mediterranean:• an abundant water resource• agriculture: 2-10% of jobs• stable population

South Mediterranean:• physical water scarcity• agriculture : 20-40% of jobs• average population growth(+ 119 millions 2010 -> 2050)

West Africa:• economic water scarcity• agriculture : 60% of jobs• high population growth(to double by 2050)

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Water and the Mediterranean : a North/South Asymmetry

North (incl. Portugal) :90% of water resource Water demand = 138 km3= 13% of conventional

potential water resource

South (incl. Jordan) : 10% of water resourcesWater demand = 116 km3= 105% of conventional

potential water resource

(Source Margat2012)

South Mediterranean =60% of the water-poor global population

East : shared watersheds

scarcity : 64 million in 2010, 287 million in 2050 ?

20502010

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Serious ecological + socio-economic + food fragilityclimate change

+ Non sustainable waters + Rural poverty + Erosion +Dam siltation

+ Dependance on food imports= high vulnerabilty

Cereal imports, MENA region (Mt)Poverty ratio (2$/day)

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What to do ? What possible answers ?

1/ Store water, develop and enhance irrigation

2/ Retain water and revitalize soils Succeed in implementing the agro-ecological transition (rainfed agriculture and rangeland)

3/ Achieve (sustainable) territorial developmentMute towards climate-smart territories

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1. Store water, develop and enhance irrigation

Irrigation is important for:

� production, income, development, stability� Global average goals : double incomes, trebble production� Tunisia: 8%UAA = 40% national prod.; Spain : 16%UAA = 60% national prod.� Senegal River Valley: fixing population / stopping migration, « one of the

most important issues for economic development »

� adaptation to climate change � Low irrigation rate in West Africa = High vulnerabil ity to Climate Change !� Climate Change = increased need for storage� Climate Change = increased need for water (for irrigat ed systems, for

rainfed, for transition from rainfed to irrigated)� Global investissement needs for adaptation (storage and irrigation) : 225 $

billion by 2030 (IPCC)

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1. Irrigation : large room for improvement in the Mediterranean / Africa

Important water resource can be potentially mobilized , e.g. in:West Africa: e.g. Senegal River Valley (VFS)� M. Ndao : « an immense development potential »� M. Diop : « here, a mere 5 billion m3 are mobilized and 15 are lost to the sea »

North Mediterranean: e.g. Spain/Ebro River Valley. I rrigation is consideredas essential (adaptation, food security, commercial balance, jobs) :

� Supply/demand policies set out to achieve a triple obje ctive for sustainability on : ecology, agro-food and energy

� Demand : localized irrigation ratio raised from 17 to 40%, with drawals decreased from 24000 hm3 to 16000 hm3

� Supply :2030 Storage goals: 9.658 hm3 . Savings on runoff - 35%/ 7.580 hm3 , 21% now2030 Irrigation goals: increase consumptions (30%), i ncrease UAA from 1 to 1.4 Mha, secure 800.000ha shifting to high efficiency s ystems

But also obstacles: funding, lack of awareness on climat e impacts and on the role of AFOLU and importance of water storage (e.g. Fr ance) ...

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1. Irrigation: room for improvement also in the Southern Mediterranean

� « the answer to Climate Change: first improve resource mo bilization » (F Chehat, DG INRA Algéria) : dams, long distance transfers, reuse (800.000 m3 mad e to date), irrigation upgrade, desalination plants for 60 coast al cities.

� Full Supplemental Irrigationand

Deficit supplemental Irrigation

Think of ‘‘water productivity’’ rather than soil productivity !

(M Solh, DG ICARDA)

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1. Irrigation: room for improvement also in the Southern Mediterranean

Egypt (Sharkia Province)Water productivity was increased by 72% on 37000 ha in 3 years

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2/ Retain water Revitalize soils Succeed into implementing agro-ecological transition

Restore degradedlands = Conserve and harvest water, Revitalize soils

A huge issue: global, for Africa and for the Mediterranean:� Adaptation / resilience� Productivity / jobs� mitigation / C storage

Portugal(photos by D Crespo)

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2/ Case: Restoring degraded lands in Portugal

SBLRPP « Sown Biodiverse Legume Rich Permanent Pastures »

More than 500 000 ha revitalized (Portugal, Spain)

Productivity & Carbonsequestration into soils were doubled !

Major Co-bénéfits are offeredto water, biodiversity, landscapes…

(photos by D Crespo)

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2. Water Harvesting

- water evaporated+ water transpirated+ Carbon into soils- flooding risks= + productivity + resilience/adaptation+ mitigation

South MediterraneanPhotos: ICARDA

West Africa

Zaï, stone bunds, half moons

• Yields up to + 120% (Burkina, Fasso, 2007)

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2. Conservation/Revitalization water / soils

Farm at Shoul (Rabat, Morocco)

2005

2012

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2. Conservation Agriculture / Direct sowingDirect sowing techniques for wheat Case: Morocco (Settat)

• Yields : + 30 to + 40%

• Water efficiency : + 60%

• Energy : - 70%

• Carbon Sequestration: 1 to 4 t CO2/ha

• Organic matter + 3 to +14%

But yet only used on 10.000 ha

Direct sowing techniques spread also in Syria and Irak

Source : INRA Maroc

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3. Muting towards Climate-Smart Territories (CST)A necessary paradigm shift

Policies : pro family agricultureproactive, climate smartTerritorial projectsBlue and green, supply and demand

Primarily urban, using silos, versatile, short term, top downBlue water; supply or demand

water : storage (surface, aquifers, soils), mobilisation / sustainablemanagement . Productivity: water, soils and forest/wood

Poor water mobilization (W Africa) Overexploitation (S Med)

Poor valorisation (South)

Water Forest/wood

/ Adaptation, mitigation, developmentHigh productivity/yields, C lockin

/ 2050 : high yield decrease and High GHG emissions, instabilities

Visions &Policies

Living soils, agro-ecology, C lockinErosion, desertification, siltationSoils/ agr.

Land preservation, densification Circular economics

Loss due to urban sprawl (North..)Waste of: food, garbage,azote

Agr. landsWaste

Strcturation / aggregation, access Food processingDiversification for rural economics

Agro-ecological transition

Subsistence farming

Rural poverty, low productivity Losses when harvesting

Environmental impacts

Agriculture Small size

(South)Modern agr

Climate-Smart Territories Situation / BAU scenario

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4. Conclusion : what messages from WWF7 to COP 21 ?

1. Incorporate Food-Security/Adapation/Water issues into the COP21 agreement because:• Climate Change/Water/Agricultural Systems = Food Ccrisis, Instabilities

• AFOLU = part of global climate solution (20 to 60% potential mitigation by 2030) only ifprovided successful adaptation/ food security / betterblue and green Water Management

2. Handle water (blue andgreen) and soils into Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA = adaptation + mitigation + local andglobal food security) • Climate change = new strategic importance of water storage and irrigation and of water

harvesting / agro-ecological transition (« living soils ») : resilience tools, risk management

• Combine water and land productivity progress (+ 60% by 2050) and resource water and soils sustainability (overexploitation of aquifers, erosion/desertification, urban sprawl… problems)

3. New «climate smart » and inclusive Strategies and Policies• Taking into CSA and development objectives into adaptation/mitigation/water strategies • Mobilizing all actors, shifting everywhere toClimate Smart Territories : Family Agricultural

Policies (including food processing) ; Agricultural research and innovation,Territory Projects/ Contracting with actors (rural communities…) / Payments for environmental services ; Investments.

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Thanks for your attention

To know more:

SESAME 1: http://www.agropolis.fr/actualites/2013-sesame-eau-securite-alimentaire-mediterranee-presentations.php

SESAME 2: http://agriculture.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Rapport_SESAME2-agriculture_familiale_Nov_2014_cle443e21.pdf

SESAME 3 (climate change): http://www.fondation-farm.org/spip.php?page=article&id_article=952

Report by CCAAER « the possible contributions of Agriculture and Fore stry in the fight against

Climate Change - CGAAER » (in French - February 2015)

http://agriculture.gouv.fr/contributions-agriculture-et-for%C3%AAt-lutte-contre-changement-climatique