Upload
dangthu
View
219
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
5th INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION GROUP (ICG) MEETING GEOSS ASIAN WATER CYCLE INITIATIVE (AWCI)
MOHD ZAKI M AMINResearch Centre for Water Resources
National Hydraulic Research Institute of MalaysiaMinistry of Natural Resources & Environment
OCT. 15-18, 2009TOKYO, JAPAN
CLIMATE CHANGE : PROJECTION, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT &
ADAPTATION STRATEGY
OUTLINES
CLIMATE CHANGE
PROGRAM INITIATIVE
NAHRIM’S FUTURE
HYDROCLIMATE DATABASE
CLIMATE CHANGE :
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE :
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
ONGOING AND NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROGRAM & PROJECTS
Recommendation from The National Water Resources Study (Peninsular Malaysia), Mac 2000
Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050 To study the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of the country
Recommendation from The Initial National Communication (INC), 2000
Need for a regional climate model to downscale the climate projections of Global Climate Model (GCM) to regional and local scale
MOTIVATION
Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors in Malaysia
Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular Malaysia
Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic regime
RATIONAL
[1/3]CLIMATE CHANGE
PROGRAM INITIATIVE
[2/3] Climate Change Projection Program
Need for a regional climate model to downscale the climate projections of Global Climate Model (GCM) to regional and local scale
2006 (NAHRIM): Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) – developed by downscaling global climate model (Canadian GCM1 – current and future climate data) at coarse resolution (~410km) to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km);
2009 (MMD): PRECIS climate projection – developed by downscaling Global Climate Model at course resolution to Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak at 50km spatial resolution
Annual rainfall decrease (-3%)
Projected temperature Increase 1.9OC in 2050
Annual rainfall increase (+7%)
Projected temperature Increase 1.6OC in 2050
[3/3] Climate Change Projection – Findings [RegHCM-PM & PRECIS]
5 main modules/para-meters:
Precipitation
Evapotrans-piration
Soil Water Storage
Surface Temperature
Streamflow
http:/futurehydroclimate.nahrim.gov.my
2 types of data sets for each module/parameter:
Simulated Past Data (1984 to 1993)Simulated Future Data (2025 to 2034 and 2040 to 2050)
[2] NAHRIM’s FUTURE HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION DATABASE
Max Daily Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall
Annual Rainfall
[3] NAHRIM’s FUTURE HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION DATABASE
To undertake an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on seven (7) identified vulnerable sectors - agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy; and
To formulate corresponding adaptation measures
8
[4] NC2 : Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Based on a regional approach shows a strong linkage between all the sectors and thus within sector impacts and vulnerability affects other sectors.
The water resources sector is found to be moredominant than the other sectors but its vulnerability isdependent on all other sectors too;
Well developed regions with high demands of water aremost vulnerable to climate change. Based on the sectordependence approach, all sectors are found to bedirectly dependent on the Water Resources, Energy andPublic Health Sector;
The common impact and vulnerability of all sectors arerelated to flood and drainage issues such asflooding and water quality.
9
[5] Vulnerability Assessment : Cross-Sectoral Analysis
agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy
Muda RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-17,2007
Golok RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-21,2007
Pahang RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-15,2007Evacuation:>25,000
Muar RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-22,2007
FLOODS PERIOD: DECEMBER 5-31, 2007
2006[1] 3 main Rivers[2] Evacuation:
>100,000[3] Abnormal Rainfall
13
Extension Research on the Impact of Climate Change on the Malaysian Water Resources, Urban and Rural Drainage System, Catchments Management, Highway Drainage, Dam and reservoir Safety and Integrity, Water Supply Allocation and Distribution, Irrigation Water Demand & Efficiency and Hydrology Analysis & Synthesis – Flood Risk Assessment (2011-2015) by means of:
More realizationMore GCM modelFine scale (grid size) resolutionFine scale time (temporal) resolutionBasin based modelingTo Enhance Computational Capacity (Computer System)Capacity Building
[6] Adaptation Strategies:[1] Development of Hydroclimate
Projection Model
Water Supply: • The per capita consumption and
non-revenue water losses should be reduced as a measure to adapt to climate change, especially to prepare for extreme droughts;
• the water supply sector will have to develop good water harvesting techniques for water conservation (increase reservoir capacity and storages);
• To improve weather and flood forecasting system would support and improve water supply management
Irrigation:• the adaptation would be to
improve irrigation efficiency;
• to develop good water harvesting techniques for the projected low rainfall periods especially during main seasons (increase irrigation supply capacity and storages);
• Rainwater harvesting, soil-water management and drainage improvement should be strengthen;
14
[6] Adaptation Strategies:[2] Water Resources
Flood:• Adaptation in Flood
mitigation measures and drainage systems;
• Updated historical records and incorporating future hydro-climate projections in Flood management and design;
• To review structural safety and integrity;
• Improved rainfall, flood forecasting, warning and response system
“No-Regret” solution project -could reduce or absorb any negative impacts of climate change
Water resources project – to be on a regional basis and integrated with all the sectors in competition;
Efforts to integrate water resources management systems should be accelerated.
15
[6] Adaptation Strategies:[2] Water Resources
16
The hard and softengineering shore protection measures need to be combined.
There is a need to improve and modify the drainage system.
To develop comprehensive management plans for areas at risk from sea level rise as part of the Integrated Shoreline Management Plan (ISMP)
Natural processes within the coastal and marine sector have to be in its existing equilibrium.
[6] Adaptation Strategies :[3] Coastal & Marine
[7] ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[1] CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION PROGRAM
Study of the Impact of Climate Change On the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources in Sabah and Sarawak (2007-2010)
Hydroclimate Projection Downscaling For Malaysia Using Hadley Centre PRECIS Model (2009-2010)
Extension of research on the Impact of Climate Change on the Malaysian Water Resources (2011-2015)• More realization• More GCM model• Fine scale (grid size)
resolution• Fine time resolution• Basin based modeling
ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[2] WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM
[1] Integrated Flood ManagementProgram for Pahang and Muar River Basin in Peninsular Malaysia (end 2010)
Pahang River Basin
Johor River Basin
15Min Rainfall Freq. Analysis (AM Data)Site 3117070@JPA Ampang
34.9
44.4
50.1
55.256.8
61.4
65.7
34.1
44.6
51.6
58.360.4
66.9
73.4
32.0
38.0
42.0
46.0
51.0
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
-2.000 -1.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000
Reduced Variate, Y
Rai
ndep
th (m
m)
AM Data:1970-2004GEV:1970-2004EV1:1070-2004UCL-GEVLCL-GEVUCL-EV1LCL-EV1HP1
Existing Design Rainfall
New Design Rainfall
Upper limit of Design Rainfall (for climate change adjustment)
[2] Updating IDF relationship to maintain design standards (1st quarter 2010)
[3] Integrated rainfall and flood forecasting, warning and response system for Johor, Pahang, & KelantanRiver Basin
Aims to increase lead time forecast to 72-hrs & reduce any severe flood impact
ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[2] WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM
[6] Sarawak Integrated Water Resources Master Plan (mid-2010)
[5] National Water Resources Policy and Law in Malaysia (end 2010)
[4] Formulation of the climate change impact on design flood (1st
quarter 2010)