Climate Change: The Non-Zero Sum Game

of the CO2 Monster

Willie Soon May 20th, 2010

AABE Climate Change Policy Panel Columbus Ohio

(1) ClimateGate and IPCC: Magical CO2 control knob does not exist

IPCC Conference

CO

2 C

on

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

v)

YEAR

CO2 is rising rapidly!

CO

2 C

on

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

v) Air T

emp

erature

An

om

aly (°C

)

YEAR

…But global temperature isn’t rising!

Real world data do not support the ocean heat Real world data do not support the ocean heat accumulation in the computer models!accumulation in the computer models!

Bob Tisdale (February 2nd, 2010-corrected version)

Model predictionsModel predictions

Real-world data

“Writing in 2005, Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al. suggested that GISS model projections had been

verified by a solid decade of increasing ocean heat (1993 to 2003). This was regarded as further

confirmation the IPCC’s AGW hypothesis. Their expectation was that the Earth’s climate system would continue accumulating heat more or less monotonically. Now that heat accumulation has stopped (and perhaps even reversed), the tables have turned. The same criteria used to support

their hypothesis, is now being used to falsify it.” William diPuccio, May 5th, 2009

“No amount of experimentation

can ever prove me right; a single

experiment can prove me wrong.”

Albert Einstein

(2) The CO2 Monster: CO2

is not an air pollutant

Center for the study of CO2 and Global Change

““So who in the ocean is affected by this So who in the ocean is affected by this [acidification; [acidification; ‘Osteoporosis of the sea’‘Osteoporosis of the sea’]?]?

— Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans — Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, December 2, 2009, and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, December 2, 2009, testimony on “The Administration’s View on the State of Climate testimony on “The Administration’s View on the State of Climate Science” Science” (1:30-1:55 of her recorded testimony (1:30-1:55 of her recorded testimony http://globalwarming.house.gov/pubs?id=0014http://globalwarming.house.gov/pubs?id=0014))

Any plants or animals that have a shell or Any plants or animals that have a shell or skeleton made of calcium carbonate [or skeleton made of calcium carbonate [or chalk]. The hard parts of many familiar chalk]. The hard parts of many familiar animals such as oysters, clams, corals, animals such as oysters, clams, corals, lobsters, crabs lobsters, crabs … are made of calcium … are made of calcium carbonate. ” carbonate. ”

Normal CO2 (400 ppm)

High CO2 (~7 times larger)

Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Normal CO2

(400 ppm)

High CO2 (~7 times larger)

Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

(3) The Sun and the climate change story

RefrigeratorRefrigerator Perry Perry “Climate” “Climate”

King Kong “SUN”King Kong “SUN”

Willie Soon Willie Soon “CO“CO22””

Solar versus COSolar versus CO22 radiative forcing over the past 150 years radiative forcing over the past 150 years

Here is how the IPCC claims that COHere is how the IPCC claims that CO22 dominates! dominates!

0.2

1.7

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

Sun CO2

Only thedifference

NE

T r

adia

tive

for

cin

g at

th

e to

p o

f at

mos

ph

ere

(W/m

2 )

IPCC (2007)

Solar versus COSolar versus CO22 radiative forcing over the past 150 years radiative forcing over the past 150 years

Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!

341 341.2

32 33.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sun CO2

Baseline

Baseline+Change

Est

imat

ed r

adia

tive

for

cin

g at

th

e to

p o

f at

mos

ph

ere

(W/m

2 )

IPCC (2007)

The Sun is shining on Washington DC?

Solar versus COSolar versus CO22 radiative forcing over the past 150 years radiative forcing over the past 150 years

Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!

341 341.2

32 33.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sun CO2

Baseline

Baseline+Change

Est

imat

ed r

adia

tive

for

cin

g at

th

e to

p o

f at

mos

ph

ere

(W/m

2 )

IPCC (2007)

(4) CO2 emission control agenda: NOT a zero-sum proposition

Bill Gates’s Annual Letter (January 25, 2010): “The final communiqué of the Copenhagen Summit, held last December, talks about mobilizing $10 billion per year in the next three years and $100 billion per year by 2020 for developing countries, which is over three quarters of all foreign aid now given by the richest countries. I am concerned that some of this money will come from reducing other categories of foreign aid, especially health. If just 1 percent of the $100 billion goal came from vaccine funding, then 700,000 more children could die from preventable diseases.”

The COThe CO22 Monster Monster: Why It is Not the BIG BAD WOLF!: Why It is Not the BIG BAD WOLF!

• ClimateGate+IPCC proved conclusively the thorough corruptions of climate science in the service of a confused mix of socio-political agendas related to energy, economics, environment and ecology

• A “magical” CO2 knob for controlling weather and climate simply DOES NOT EXIST.

• CO2 is not an “air pollutant” – It is food for plants and marine life!