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Climate change strategy with preliminaryidentification of possible adaptation measures3rd Consultation workshop on the Pilot project on Climate Changeadaptation: Building the link between the Flood Risk Managementplanning and Climate Change assessment in the Sava River Basin
Roko Andricevic
Sveuciliste u SplituFakultet gradevinarstva, arhitekture i geodezije
5. lipnja 2013.
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 1 / 19
Climate change impacts and adaptation measures
Climate change is underway - evidence of climate change fromobservations
Extreme events will occur in new locations with increase of frequencyand/or intensity of extreme events
The past may not be a good guide to the future
Hot summer 2003 was 1 in 500 year event and by 2040 due to therising temperatures this is expected to be 1 in 10 year event!
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 2 / 19
Decision-making under uncertainty
Undertaking climate variability and risk assessment aims to determine thesensitivity of project (e.g., FRMP) options to relevant climate relatedhazards, identify exposure and identify key risks
Primary purpose of climate change vulnerability and risk assessment isto inform adaptation planning
Uncertainty in climate projections - uncertainty in climate variables,future society, scale of future emissions, land use and scientificknowledge on climate system interactions
The challenge of uncertainty within FRMP
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 3 / 19
Decision-making under uncertainty
Downscaling climate projections to catchment scale (e.g., SRB)
should not be seen as increasing confidence in data
problem of wrong interpretation
irreducible uncertainty in assessing potential future impacts
11Wilby and Dessai, 2010Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 4 / 19
Dealing with uncertainty
Propagation of uncertainty through modeling process
Uncertainty in future simulated monthly flow regimes derived from six climate
scenarios and four hydrological models for the river Boyne in Ireland for three
time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2070s) using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty
Estimation (GLUE) method 2
2Hall and Murphy, 2012Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 5 / 19
Considering adaptation measures
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Definition
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climaticstimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Definition
Actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climateconditions, such as the construction of flood walls to protect property fromstronger storms and heavier precipitation, or the planting of agricultural crops andtrees more suited to warmer temperatures and drier soil conditions
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 6 / 19
Adaptation measures
The key objective, in the face of uncertainty, is to define andimplement design changes (adaptation measures) which bothprovide a benefit to current climate conditions as well as resilienceto potential future climate change
Adaptation options which reduce vulnerability to past and presentclimate variability
Modifications to existing plans and designs
Adaptive management vs. flexible management
Robust adaptation
Adaptation measure that result in benefits, which exceed the costsDynamic measures to allow changes or to withdraw the adaptationstrategy as new climate change information evolveRobustness to uncertaintyStrategies that can reduce climate change vulnerability by adding extrasafety margins at low costs
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 7 / 19
Suggested Implementation Steps for FRMP
1. Vulnerability Analysis
Climate sensitivity analysis
Evaluate exposure to climate hazards
2. Hazard assessment maps
3. Risk assessment maps
4. Identification of adaptation options
5. Integration of adaptation action plan with measures into the FRMP
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 8 / 19
1. Vulnerability Analysis
Having sensitivity to a particular climate variable or hazard analyzed andintegrated into GIS with exposure data, the vulnerability is calculated asfollows:
V = S x E
where, S is degree of sensitivity that asset has (e.g., selected criteria likepopulation density, economic activity, land use etc.) and E is exposure tobaseline climate conditions with a degree of uncertainty (uncertainty bands).Therefore, the vulnerability could be classified as:
high exposure - high frequency events(Q5,Q10,...)medium exposure - medium frequency events(Q50,Q100,...)low exposure - rare flood events(Q500,Q1000,...)no exposure - areas not affected by flooding(e.g., mountain peaks, etc.)
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 9 / 19
1. Vulnerability example - 2013 flooding event
sensitivity to populationsensitivity to economicactivitiessensitivity to infrastructuresensitivity to land use
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 10 / 19
2. Hazard assessment mapping
Estimation of hazard defines an impact caused by the flooding waterexpressed by water level and velocity
3
3Bureau of Reclamation, 1988Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 11 / 19
Hazard example
Estimation of hazard by the flooding water expressed by water level andvelocity
Why to use water level and watervelocity...
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 12 / 19
3. Risk assessment mapping
According to WFD and EFD the risk is suggested to be defined as:
Risk = f (hazard , vulnerability)
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 13 / 19
3. When hazard and vulnerability result in structuraldamage
Risk = f (hazard , vulnerability)
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 14 / 19
4. Identification of adaptation options
Project
FRMP
Climate Hazard
- floodingevent
- increase offrequencyand intensity
- rising ofgroundwater
- increasedprecipitation
Vulnerability
- populationdensity
- economicactivity
- specialstructures
- protectedareas
- culturalheritage
Impacts
- damages topopulation
- agriculturalareas
- soil erosion
- water quality
Adaptation
- Retention anddiversion of water
- Dam,embankment,barrage
- Storage water forirrigation
- Upgradinginfrastructure
- Spatial planning
- Greening ofurban areas
- Environmentalmanagement
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 15 / 19
5. Adaptation action plan with the measures -Building adaptive capacity
Research and analysis
- Aimed to reduce uncertainties prior to costly risk management measures
- Better understand climate related factors
- Develop higher resolution data on future climate variability
- develop cost-benefit analysis for risk management measures under uncertainty
Data collection and monitoring
- Monitor impacts of climate related factors on existing performance from remotesensing to in-situ data
- Gain access to the new developments in climate change science (e.g., GEMS)
Changing standards and codes
- Incorporate climate-resilience into countries procurement practice
- Include climate-related risk and management in Environmental ImpactAssessment Studies
- Perform Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment within spatial planningdocuments
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 16 / 19
5. Adaptation action plan with the measures -Delivering adaptation actions
Awareness raising
- Undertake training and capacity building programmes
- Organize workshops and public forums on climate change
Spreading of risk
- Diversification of asset types and technologies for new development
- Diversify locations of new developments
- Use other financial options like Alternate Risk Transfer Mechanism including riskbonds and swap options
Aviod negative impacts
- Avoid locations where risks will be unmanageable in spatial documents
- Require climate-resilient design standards in new developments
- Implement changes to management and operating rules for existing projects
- Implement engineering and technical solutions against climate change forexisting developments
- Built climate-related risks into contingency and disaster plans for new projects
- Identify and develop new projects that are favored by future climate conditions
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 17 / 19
References
EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG Climate Action (2013)
Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climateresilient
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/docs
Wilby and Dessai (2010)
Robust adaptation to climate change Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers:Making vulnerable investments climate resilient
Royal Meteorological Society
Hall and Murphy (2012)
In: Water Supply Systems, Distribution and Environmental Effects
Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 18 / 19
Thank you for your attention
Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 19 / 19