Climate Change, Sea Ice, and Tourism

Exploratory ResearchA. Lovecraft, A. Mahoney, H. Eicken, S. Colt

steve.colt@uaa.alaska.eduEPSCoR all-hands meeting, May 25, 2011, Fairbanks

• Arctic sea ice system is changing rapidly:• overall retreat• unpredictable

• Overarching research question: How can Arctic communities best plan for increased tourism as coastal sea ice diminishes?

• How can pan-Arctic social and sea ice trends and knowledge be “downscaled” to regional and community scales?

Starting Points (fall 2010)

• Persistent directional change of exogenous parameters• temperature, ice extent, ice volatility,

length of “summer season”

• Local effects driven by national/international policies• GHG mitigation (or lack)• Rush for resources

• Conflicting goals

Diminishing sea ice: a “wicked problem”?*

*Chapin et al. 2008

• Much tourism is ice-dependent• Ice and ice-related species may be the draw

(demand side)• Access may depend on navigable water

(supply side)

• Tourism is one activity (among several) expected to increase

• Tourism offers both opportunities and challenges• Potential local livelihoods• Economic and fiscal benefits

Tourism: one important component of changing social-

ecological system

• ? Tradeoff between volume and “quality”

• ? Tradeoff between local ownership and proven global business capabilities and deep pockets

• ? Tradeoff between local tourism jobs with lower wages and leaving to find high-wage jobs in global cash economy

• ? Tradeoff between tourism volume and subsistence

• Who owns the brand?• eg for authentic cultural tourism

Opportunities and challenges within tourism

Primarily attracted by

Ice-dependent tourism in the Arctic

Can be either http://www.vantagetravel.com http://

www.tundratoursinc.com

sea ice and open water accessible from shore

sea ice in navigable

concentrations

• wildlife• landscap

e

• ship-based • land-based

Requires:

Ship-based sea ice tourism

• Sea ice must be be present to see ice-dependent species

– e.g. polar bear, walrus

• Too much sea ice will prevent safe access to Arctic waters

• Cruise success dependent on prevailing ice conditions

Min/max August sea ice concentration for period 2000-2010

Minimum MaximumData from

nsidc.org

Land-based sea ice tourism

• Landfast sea ice provides habitat for many species

• Accessible/viewable from beach

• Narrow landfast ice provides– Closer proximity to

offshore leads– More dynamic /

aesthetic ice conditions

Landfast ice* and open water** dataMonthly mean lead positionsMonthly mean landfast ice extent

Barrow&

Kaktovik

•Narrow landfast ice•Open water nearby

*Mahoney et al. 2007, J. Geophys.

Res.**Eicken et al.,

2006, MMS Final report

Ice retreating from coasts during tourist season

Chance of sea ice within 100km of coast on given day of year

- estimates derived from passive microwave data (nsidc.org)-probably over-estimating ice concentration near coast

• Consider important differences in “sensitivity” of communities to changes in sea ice• Sensitivity is “the degree to which a system is affected,

either adversely or beneficially, by climate related or other stimuli” (Trainor et al. 2009, 102)

• Example: Wales, on the Bering Strait, could become stopping point for northbound cruise ships

• Examine:• vulnerability of communities to sea ice loss,• sensitivity to change• potential adaptations to capture economic benefits from

tourism

Our proposed research

1. What are sensitivities of communities to sea ice loss?

2. Which ice-related attributes drive tourism demand?

3. How will global ice trends shift tourism demand?• Loss of ice in Japan = boon to North Alaska?

4. Can we predict ice extent and location at local and regional scales useful for tourism planning?

5. What institutions do/can/should exist to best manage tourism for benefit of Arctic people?

Five questions to organize inquiry

• Single communities face [mostly] exogenous parameters

• Regions – can plan and share risk

• State/federal – set policies, make most rules

• International – ecosystem scale, international markets and sources of demand for resources

Multiple scales – an important part of the problem and inquiry

• Use GIS to compare (overlay) shifting patterns of ice, ecosystem attributes, socioeconomic status and activity

• Look for alignments and conflicts

• Geography PhD project (!)

Addressing the multiple scales

• Expand team

• Full proposal development

• Submission(s) to NSF

Next steps

Chapin, F. S., III, S. F. Trainor, O. Huntington, A. L. Lovecraft, E. Zavaleta, D. C. Natcher, A. D. McGuire, J. L. Nelson, L. Ray, M. Calef, N. L. Fresco, H. Huntington, T. S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, and R. L. Naylor. 2008. Increasing wildfire in the boreal forest: Causes, consequences, and pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem. BioScience, 58 (6), 531-540.

Literature Cited