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Climate Change ResilienceClimate Change Resilienceforfor
Developing Country AgricultureDeveloping Country AgricultureParticularly Africa Particularly Africa
Gary ToenniessenGary ToenniessenMarch 2, 2009March 2, 2009World BankWorld Bank
Climate Change Resilience & Climate Change Resilience & AgrAgr..1.1. Making climate science more usefulMaking climate science more useful
to agricultureto agriculture2.2. Strengthening agricultural researchStrengthening agricultural research
for climate changefor climate change3. Managing climate risks & building3. Managing climate risks & building
safety netssafety nets4. Designing carbon markets to foster 4. Designing carbon markets to foster
agricultural development & povertyagricultural development & povertyreduction reduction
1.) Making climate science more1.) Making climate science moreuseful to agricultureuseful to agriculture
•• More useful projections of climate impactMore useful projections of climate impact& adaptation options (Stanford U)& adaptation options (Stanford U)
•• Improved collection, analysis & sharingImproved collection, analysis & sharingof weather information includingof weather information includingseasonal forecasts (ICPAC)seasonal forecasts (ICPAC)
•• Capacity building Capacity building (U of Colorado, RUFORUM)(U of Colorado, RUFORUM)
Stanford Crop Impact ModelStanford Crop Impact Model
Summary of data presented in: Lobell, D.B. et al, Science 319:607-610, 2008
2.) Strengthening agricultural 2.) Strengthening agricultural research for climate changeresearch for climate change
•• Build on existing coping strategiesBuild on existing coping strategies•• Increase biodiversity and collect atIncrease biodiversity and collect at
the margins (Crop Diversity Trust)the margins (Crop Diversity Trust)•• More resilient & robust crop varietiesMore resilient & robust crop varieties
(AGRA, IARCs, NARS)(AGRA, IARCs, NARS)•• Small holder water management &Small holder water management &
irrigation (MDG, IWMI)irrigation (MDG, IWMI)•• Livestock management (IUCN)Livestock management (IUCN)•• Capacity building (AGRA, RUFORUM)Capacity building (AGRA, RUFORUM)
Breeding drought tolerant rice by using Breeding drought tolerant rice by using MAS to locate genes contributing to the MAS to locate genes contributing to the component traits on rice chromosomescomponent traits on rice chromosomes
1
RM84RM220RM272
RM23RM5
RM246
RM128
RM302RM265
RM472
OSR19
RM225
RM527
RM3
RM340
RM30
RM141
6RM233A
RM8
RM174
RM324
RM262
RM183RM263
RM6
RM250
RM213
2RM122
RM13
RM194RM437
RM163
RM305RM188
RM178
RM87
RM334
5RM60
RM231
RM545
RM7
RM282
RM16
RM135RM55
RM265RM227
3RM335
RM261
RM185
RM471
RM177
RM252RM241
RM317
RM349RM280
4
RM293
RM243
RM237
RM232
RM303
RM528
RM289
RM50RM562
RM510
RM446
RM587
RM129RM584
RM314RM111
OSR6OSR1
RM167RM120
RM202
RM209RM229
RM21
RM206
RM254
RM224
11 OSR28
RM41
RM566RM321
RM257RM242
RM201
RM215
RM205
9RM222RM216
RM239
RM271RM258
RM228
RM333
10RM51
RM82
RM125RM180
RM11OSR22
OSR4RM351
RM118
RM172
7
OSR30
RM52
RM38
RM25
RM223
RM149
RM264
8
RM19RM247
RM101
RM313
RM309
RM270
RM17
RM4A
12
RM234
RM467
OSR33
RM332RM407
RM210
RM281
RM137
RM331
RM342A
RM179
RM20A
RM287
RM256
RM18RM463
RM211
From Binam From BR24 Binam or BR24/IR64 From IR64
RM14
RM411
RM598
RM506
RM515
RM524
RM297
RootRootdepthdepth
Requires Requires -- Population segregating for traitPopulation segregating for trait-- Managed drought environmentManaged drought environment
Linked DNA markers can substitute for Linked DNA markers can substitute for visual scoring of traits difficult to measure visual scoring of traits difficult to measure
(e.g., deep primary root )(e.g., deep primary root )
Deep primary root Shallow roots onlyDeep primary root Shallow roots only
& Can score for multiple genes simultaneously& Can score for multiple genes simultaneously
““Drought superior Drought superior –– the firstthe first””
Drought Tolerant Hybrid RiceDrought Tolerant Hybrid Rice
East India (Jharkhand & Bihar)East India (Jharkhand & Bihar)Drought tolerant rice Drought tolerant rice –– AshokaAshoka f 200f 200
PartnersPartners: IRRI, Birsa Agr. Univ. & Gramin Vikas Trust: IRRI, Birsa Agr. Univ. & Gramin Vikas Trust
High yields with High yields with adequate rainfalladequate rainfall
Resilient to droughtResilient to droughtwhen rains failwhen rains fail
3.) Managing climate risks and 3.) Managing climate risks and building safety netsbuilding safety nets
•• Weather indexed crop insurance (FSD)Weather indexed crop insurance (FSD)
•• Contingency planning and funding forContingency planning and funding forfood shortfalls due to climate (WFP)food shortfalls due to climate (WFP)
•• Markets to move food from surplus toMarkets to move food from surplus todeficit locations (AGRA)deficit locations (AGRA)
From Data to DollarsFrom Data to Dollars
Weather Indicator MapsWeather Indicator Maps
Generated Using:Generated Using:
Weather DataWeather Data
Crop Growth DataCrop Growth Data
Geographic BoundariesGeographic Boundaries
X
Vulnerable Vulnerable Population Maps Population Maps
& Profiles& Profiles
VAM InformationVAM Information
X
Operational Costs per Operational Costs per Effected BeneficiaryEffected Beneficiary
WFP Operational DataWFP Operational Data
WeatherWeatherInformationInformation
Estimated Estimated # in Need# in Need
Response Cost Response Cost Estimate by Estimate by
CountryCountry
Total Response Total Response Cost by RegionCost by Region
World Food ProgramWorld Food Program
4.) Carbon markets for agricultural 4.) Carbon markets for agricultural development & poverty reductiondevelopment & poverty reduction
in Africain Africa
•• Influence policy & establish anInfluence policy & establish anenabling environmentenabling environment
•• Achieve readiness and build capacity Achieve readiness and build capacity to implement to implement
•• Build strong AfricaBuild strong Africa--wide negotiating positionwide negotiating positionAfrican Climate Solution & BioAfrican Climate Solution & Bio--carbon Initiativecarbon Initiative
Commit to mitigationCommit to mitigationAdopt REDD at CopenhagenAdopt REDD at CopenhagenAllow AFOLU by 2013Allow AFOLU by 2013
•• Help African countries take lead & submitHelp African countries take lead & submit•• Support US policy allowing AFOLU offsetsSupport US policy allowing AFOLU offsets
in developing countriesin developing countries•• Promote REAL (Promote REAL (Reduced Emissions &Reduced Emissions &
Adaptation in LandscapesAdaptation in Landscapes))
Carbon MarketsInfluence Policy / Enabling Env.
(COMESA / WWF)
•• Legal frameworks (WWF, ELI)Legal frameworks (WWF, ELI)•• National carbon accounting (Clinton, U of C)National carbon accounting (Clinton, U of C)
Measure, monitor, certify, ITMeasure, monitor, certify, IT•• Smallholder sellerSmallholder seller’’s fund (COMESA, PTA)s fund (COMESA, PTA)•• National pilot projects (WWF)National pilot projects (WWF)
Technology transfer (ICRAF)Technology transfer (ICRAF)Smallholders generate credits Smallholders generate credits Optimize benefits for rural livelihoodsOptimize benefits for rural livelihoods
Cabon MarketsAchieve Readiness & Build Capacity
GLOBAL CROPGLOBAL CROPDIVERSITY TRUSTDIVERSITY TRUST
ClintonClintonFoundationFoundation
ThankThankYouYou
COMESACOMESA