Climate Change & Public Health NJDEP Clean Air Council 2009 Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology

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Climate Change & Public HealthNJDEP Clean Air Council 2009


Leonard Bielory, M.D.

Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council

Professor

Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences

UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School



Professor



2008: Melting Iceberg’s2008: Melting Iceberg’s2008: Melting Iceberg’s2008: Melting Iceberg’s

“How it threatens

your health”

But the polar bear might not be the only threatened species

But the polar bear might not be the only threatened species

Climate change and air pollutionClimate change and air pollutionClimate change and air pollutionClimate change and air pollution

Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent, Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent, a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning.a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning.

The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (COgreenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO22, methane, nitrous oxide), methane, nitrous oxide)

GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower layers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth Systemlayers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth System

Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant in particular Oin particular O33 formation formation

Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent, Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent, a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning.a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning.

The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (COgreenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO22, methane, nitrous oxide), methane, nitrous oxide)

GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower layers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth Systemlayers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth System

Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant in particular Oin particular O33 formation formation

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate Change

Source: NASASource: NASA

Source: geology.comSource: geology.com

Global change factorsGlobal change factorsGlobal change factorsGlobal change factors

131319001900 2100 210020002000

2020

1515

1414

1616

1717

1818

1919Earth’s Average Surface Temp (OC)Earth’s Average Surface Temp (OC)

YearYear205020501950195018601860

IPCC (2001) estimate:

+ 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100

IPCC (2001) estimate:

+ 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100

Central estimate:

2.5 oC increase

Central estimate:

2.5 oC increase

Band of historical

climatic variability

Band of historical

climatic variability

WHO estimated mortality (per million WHO estimated mortality (per million people) attributable to climate change by people) attributable to climate change by

the year 2000the year 2000

WHO estimated mortality (per million WHO estimated mortality (per million people) attributable to climate change by people) attributable to climate change by

the year 2000the year 2000

Nature 2005;438:310-317.Nature 2005;438:310-317.

CLIMATE

CHANGE

CLIMATE

CHANGE

Temperature Rise 1

Sea level Rise 2

Hydrologic Extremes

Temperature Rise 1

Sea level Rise 2

Hydrologic Extremes

Urban Heat Island Effect

Air Pollution & Aeroallergens

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Water resources & food supply

Mental Health &

Environmental Refugees

Urban Heat Island Effect

Air Pollution & Aeroallergens

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Water resources & food supply

Mental Health &

Environmental Refugees

Heat Stress

Cardiorespiratory failure

Asthma, COPD, Allergies

Dengue, Malaria

Encephalitis, Hantavirus

Rift Valley Fever

Cholera, Campylobacter

Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis

Leptospirosis

Diarrhea, malnutrition

Toxic Red Tides

Overcrowding, Forced Migration

Infectious diseases

Human Conflicts

Heat Stress

Cardiorespiratory failure

Asthma, COPD, Allergies

Dengue, Malaria

Encephalitis, Hantavirus

Rift Valley Fever

Cholera, Campylobacter

Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis

Leptospirosis

Diarrhea, malnutrition

Toxic Red Tides

Overcrowding, Forced Migration

Infectious diseases

Human Conflicts

11 3°C by yr. 2100 3°C by yr. 210022 40 cm “ “ 40 cm “ “IPCC estimatesIPCC estimates

11 3°C by yr. 2100 3°C by yr. 210022 40 cm “ “ 40 cm “ “IPCC estimatesIPCC estimates

Patz, 1998Patz, 1998

Health Effects of Climate ChangeHealth Effects of Climate Change

Climate Change and Respiratory HealthClimate Change and Respiratory HealthClimate Change and Respiratory HealthClimate Change and Respiratory Health

Increased number of deaths and acute Increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat wavesmorbidity due to heat waves

Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of events due to higher concentrations of

ground level of Oground level of O33

Change in frequency of respiratory diseases Change in frequency of respiratory diseases from transboundary long-range air pollution from transboundary long-range air pollution

(e.g related to fires, aerosols)(e.g related to fires, aerosols)

Altered spatial and temporal distribution of Altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectorsallergens and some infectious disease vectors

Increased number of deaths and acute Increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat wavesmorbidity due to heat waves

Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of events due to higher concentrations of

ground level of Oground level of O33

Change in frequency of respiratory diseases Change in frequency of respiratory diseases from transboundary long-range air pollution from transboundary long-range air pollution

(e.g related to fires, aerosols)(e.g related to fires, aerosols)

Altered spatial and temporal distribution of Altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectorsallergens and some infectious disease vectors

Source: Environment and human Health Committee of the European Respiratory Society ( ERS) Climate change and respiratory disease: a position statementSource: Environment and human Health Committee of the European Respiratory Society ( ERS) Climate change and respiratory disease: a position statement

Climate Change & Allergic Airway DiseaseClimate Change & Allergic Airway Disease

Stafoggia M, 2008Stafoggia M, 2008

Risk of dying on days with temperature of 30°C (lag 0-1) vs of 20 °C in people age 65+

Risk of dying on days with temperature of 30°C (lag 0-1) vs of 20 °C in people age 65+

4 italians cities 1997-20044 italians cities 1997-2004

• “The severity and duration of summertime regional air pollution episodes are projected to increase in the Northeast and Midwest US by 2045-2052 due to climate-change-induced decreases in the frequency of surface cyclones.” (IPCC, 2007)

• By 2050, warming alone may increase by 68% the number of Red Ozone Alert days across the Eastern US. (IPCC, 2007 -Bell 2006

• “The severity and duration of summertime regional air pollution episodes are projected to increase in the Northeast and Midwest US by 2045-2052 due to climate-change-induced decreases in the frequency of surface cyclones.” (IPCC, 2007)

• By 2050, warming alone may increase by 68% the number of Red Ozone Alert days across the Eastern US. (IPCC, 2007 -Bell 2006

Medina-Ramon M, 2006Medina-Ramon M, 2006

Percentage change in respiratory hospital admissions and air pollution across 36 US cities 1996-1999

Percentage change in respiratory hospital admissions and air pollution across 36 US cities 1996-1999

Change per 5 ppb O3 ( 8-h) and 10 ug/m3 PM10 (24-h)Change per 5 ppb O3 ( 8-h) and 10 ug/m3 PM10 (24-h)

50 eastern US cities, summer months

Bell ML, 2007

50 eastern US cities, summer months

Bell ML, 2007

Hospital admissionsHospital admissions

MortalityMortality

Ozone effect: increase (%) from 1990 to 2050 in cause specific hospital admission and total mortalityOzone effect: increase (%) from 1990 to 2050 in cause specific hospital admission and total mortality

Potential human health benefits from reductions in ozone and particulate matter air pollution associated with implementing GHG mitigation measures (2001-2020)(Source: Cifuentes et al. 2001)

Potential human health benefits from reductions in ozone and particulate matter air pollution associated with implementing GHG mitigation measures (2001-2020)(Source: Cifuentes et al. 2001)



Is this the solution?Is this the solution?Is this the solution?Is this the solution?







Professor





Professor



Improving Air Quality & Reducing Climate Change

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Climate Change & Public Health NJDEP Clean Air Council 2009 Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology