Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Winter 2014 January 14, 2012

Class News

•  Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 •  2008 and 2010 Class On Line:

–  http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

•  First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html –  And in particular two subsections

•  Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

•  Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

–  Note specific assignment on Ctools site

Today

•  Who are we? •  Course Description Overview •  Some Questions and Discussion •  Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

What is the Point of View that I Bring?

•  Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing.

•  Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders.

•  Wunderground.com “expert” blogger •  Teaching this course for the eighth time.

–  Changes every year. •  Current research – improving the use of knowledge

about climate change in policy and planning.

Helping with the class

•  I have a student who will be helping with the class – Michele Newstadt

•  Doctoral student in science education •  Graduate of this class

The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

Who are we?

•  Name: •  Major or Interest: •  Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. •  Questions of help guide response:

–  Homework question – last week’s cold period, where do you get your news?

–  When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?

–  Do you think that the planet is warming? •  Is this warming consequential? •  Is this warming manmade? •  Can we do something about it?

What is the Point of View that I Bring?

•  “Complex problems with no known solutions.”

•  There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. –  Blog data base. –  http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page

Syllabus

•  https://ctools.umich.edu/portal/site/4f11c141-a060-4ceb-8013-cb851961192c/page/0b943b09-73c1-42c3-8c28-09df0df8e0b0

From Course Description

•  Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. – Where should we pay attention? – What do we know versus what do we believe?

•  Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements – How big is the problem?

•  How is all of this changing? •  This is not a math-oriented course

Course requirements

•  Because of diverse nature of students and issues associated with climate change and the attributes of real world problem solving discussion is vital.

•  There will be a few readings, and you will write short responses (order of 1 page) submitted prior to the lecture through Ctools.

Course Project

•  Reflective of workplace … –  “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”

•  Groups of individuals with varied expertise –  Instructors will assign

•  Responsive to “news” –  Relationship of news to science

•  Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. –  What are first steps? –  What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?

•  Monitor progress // briefing during the course •  Presentation at end of course

Course News

•  Project –  Grade will be primarily determined on the project

•  Start to think about them – perhaps even today •  Teams that bring together several elements of the project

–  Should be no larger than 4 people. –  Should not be your friends that have the same background.

•  Should be defined by late January –  I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. –  Some guidance in defining projects

•  We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course –  That means I will provide management / customer oversight.

•  Final presentations at the end

Course News

•  Readings and Participation – This semester I will have some modest

requirements during the term in addition to the project.

– Reading and Response – Descriptions of key figures

•  What do I mean?

– 4 or 5 papers to read and discuss •  The world 4 degrees warmer

Climate Change Relationships

•  Consumption // Population // Energy

CLIMATE CHANGE

ENERGY

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION

SO

CIE

TAL

SU

CC

ES

S

Projected Global Temperature Trends

IPCC ‘01

2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change •  Some global climate predictions

The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100!

Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.

The prediction:

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/

See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

IPCC 2007: The last

~100 years

What parameters/events do we care about?

•  Temperature •  Water

–  Precipitation –  Evaporation –  Humidity

•  Air Composition –  Air quality –  Aerosols –  Carbon dioxide

•  Winds •  Clouds / Sunlight

•  Droughts •  Floods

•  Extreme Weather

The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences)

Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs

information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …

Security Food

Environmental National

Societal Success Standard of Living ...???...

ECONOMICS POLICY

“BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE

ENERGY RELIGION ??????

Thanks