Ram Ratan Simaiya Subject Expert (Agriculture)

State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change, Environmental Planning & Coordination Organization,

Bhopal

Climate Change Physical Science, Adaptation,

Mitigation and Vulnerability

Climate change

• Climate is usually defined as the "average weather" in a place. It

includes patterns of temperature, precipitation (rain or snow),

humidity, wind and seasons.

• Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in

average surface temperatures on Earth. An overwhelming scientific

consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the

human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other

greenhouse gases into the air.

Climate change and variability

Green House Gases

Green House

Gases

Global

Warming

Potential

Present Amt in

Atmosphere Source

CO2 1 404 ppm Fossil fuel burning

CH4 25 1865 ppb Wetlands, landfills,

paddy fields

N2O 298 322 ppb Agriculture

HFC 1430 54 ppt Industry

SF6 22800 6.70 ppt Industry

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

Country wise Emission Rankings

• India is 3rd largest emitter of the world after China and US

• India's per capita GHG emission 1.7 MT per annum is well below the

world average 7.5 MT

• India has declared to reduce its GHG intensity by 33-35% by 2030

• Focus on adaptation in agriculture, forest, water and livelihood

Climate Change : Indian Scenario

Rainfall

No long term trend noted. Regional variations seen, increase in summer rainfall and decrease in number of rainy days

Temperature

0.6oC rise in ST during 100 years. Earlier projections showed increase of 3.50 to 5oC by 2100. However, recent IPCC Report indicates a slow down in warming in recent decade.

Extreme events

Heavy rainfall events to increase and number of rainy days to decrease. No clear trend on cyclones, heat wave, cold wave, etc.

Sea level rise

Rise of 2.5 mm/year since 1950.

Glaciers

Retreating noted in Himalayas

Major challenges in MP due to climate change/

variability

1. Drought

2. Excess rainfall

3. Frost and hailstorm

4. Chilling Injury / Cold Waves

• Trend analysis of rainfall data from 1961-2002 indicated a declining pattern in all agro-climatic zones (MP

SAPCC, 2012).

• The recent analysis of IMD data (1971-2012), one district (Sheopur) has shown highly significant decreasing

trend, whereas 5 and 7 districts have shown moderate and mild decreasing trend respectively for annual

rainfall.

• During kharif season, 2 and 10 districts have shown moderate and mild decreasing trend respectively.

• During rabi season, only 2 districts each with moderate and mild decreasing trends. Mainly in south east region

of the state.

Rainfall

Rainfall (annual)

kharif (Rainfall)

Rabi (Rainfall)

Climate Change in context of MP

• Maximum temperature has been rising highly significantly in the entire state during annual (except 4

districts) and rabi (except 5 districts) season.

• No trend was detected in 15 districts during kharif season.

Maximum Temperature

Max. Temp. (annual)

Max. Temp. (June-September)

Max. Temp. (October-March)

• Minimum temperatures have been rising significantly in entire state during annual and rabi and most part

of the state during kharif seasons (No trend in 10 districts).

• Duhan et al., (2013) reported that the annual, maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 0.6, 0.6

and 0.62 °C, respectively over the past 102 years (1901 to 2002).

Min. Temp. (annual)

Min. Temp. (June-September)

Min. Temp. (October-March)

(Source: 0.50 CRU monthly)

Minimum Temperatures

Climate Scenarios

* Projections Based on PRECIS considering A1B scenario

Projected Changes * 2021-2050 2071-2100

Daily Max. Temp 1.8-2oC increase 3.4-4.4oC increase

Daily Min Temp. 2.0-2.4oC increase >4.4oC increase

Monsoon

Precipitation

• Increase in precipitation by 1.25 times the current observed rainfall in most parts of MP; • No change in Morena, Shivpuri, Gwalior and Bhind; • Increase in precipitation in eastern parts of Hoshangabad, northern part of Betul, north eastern parts of Betul and Southern part of Sehore

• More than 1.35 times increase in precipitation wrt observed climate in most parts of MP. • With major parts of Hoshangabad and Damoh, Mandla and northern parts of Balaghat will experience rain in excess of 1.45 times the observed climate now. • The extreme northern and western part of the state will also experience excess rainfall but less than most of the other areas

Winter Precipitation • Decrease in precipitation • Substantial increase in precipitation in Central and South western part of MP increasing from between 1.45 to 1.85 times

Features of rainfed ecosystems

Frequent droughts •Arid region ( rainfall is less than 500 mm,):

drought is almost an inevitable phenomenon in most of the years • Semi-arid regions (mean rainfall 500-750

mm): droughts occur in 40 to 60% of the years • Dry sub-humid regions (annual rainfall

750-1200 mm): contingent drought situations occur due to break in monsoon conditions. •Very high incidence of drought (>20%) is observed in a few districts in Rajasthan and Gujarat. • The incidence is relatively low in the Western ghats, Eastern and North-Eastern India

Probability of drought occurrence in different parts of India

National Circumstances & Challenges

• India: 2.4% of world surface area

17.5% of world’s human population

17.5% of world’s cattle population

• Poverty: 30% of the population lives in poverty

• Housing : 20% of population without proper housing

• Electricity: 25% without electricity

Per capita consumption 1/10th of developed world

• Drinking Water: 92 million without safe drinking water

• Human Development Index: 0.586

Global rank of 135/188

• India’s priority: Poverty eradication

Sustainable growth 15

Components of Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Conclusion

• Climate change presents the single biggest threat to development, and its widespread, unprecedented impacts disproportionately burden the poorest and most vulnerable.

• Urgent action to combat climate change and minimize its disruptions is integral to the successful implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.

• The global nature of climate change calls for broad international cooperation in building resilience and adaptive capacity to its adverse effects, developing sustainable low-carbon pathways to the future, and accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its

impacts

Thank You