Climate Change: it’s a matter of degrees...

Energy and Climate Change SymposiumEnergy and Climate Change SymposiumAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences Stated Meeting,American Academy of Arts and Sciences Stated Meeting,Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor, , University of Michigan October 7, 2007October 7, 2007

Take Home MessagesTake Home Messages

““Degrees” of warming matterDegrees” of warming matter• Mitigation makes a differenceMitigation makes a difference

Committed to further climate changesCommitted to further climate changes• Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Achieving the Millennium Development Goals

becomes harder becomes harder Its not just the averages that matter…Its not just the averages that matter…

• Regional vulnerabilities Regional vulnerabilities • Multiple stressesMultiple stresses• ExtremesExtremes

Portfolio Approach:Portfolio Approach:• Adaptation Adaptation andand Mitigation---integrate and need Mitigation---integrate and need

MORE OF BOTHMORE OF BOTH

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

IPCC, 2007

A world vulnerable to Climate Change Most impacts are will be negative, especially for the poorest, most

vulnerable nations. Achieving the MDGs will be much more difficult.

Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, and ecosystems will be challenged in virtually every region of the globe.

International, regional, and national institutions are ill-prepared to manage climate change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response strategies are a global priority.

Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed.

– A “mitigation only” strategy won’t work because it’s already too late to avoid substantial climate change.

– An “adaptation only” strategy won’t work because most adaptation measures become more costly and less effective as the magnitude of the changes to which one is trying to adapt gets larger.

The Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and

2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger.

2. Achieve Universal Primary Education

3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women

4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5

mortality rate.

5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the

maternal mortality rate

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have

halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability

8. Develop a global partnership for Development

The Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and

2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger.

2. Achieve Universal Primary Education

3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women

4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5

mortality rate.

5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the

maternal mortality rate

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have

halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability

8. Develop a global partnership for Development

The Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and

2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger.

2. Achieve Universal Primary Education

3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women

4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5

mortality rate.

5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the

maternal mortality rate

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have

halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability

8. Develop a global partnership for Development

1 hour ozone (ppb)

Projected changes in extremes

Adaptation Research is LaggingAdaptation Research is LaggingNRC Report on CCSPNRC Report on CCSP** (9/12/07)(9/12/07)

Understanding and predicting Understanding and predicting physicalphysical climate change is progressing wellclimate change is progressing well

Declining observing capabilityDeclining observing capability Inadequate human dimensions funding:Inadequate human dimensions funding:

• $30 million; lack of collaboration$30 million; lack of collaboration Inadequate progressInadequate progress

• in assessing impacts on human well being in assessing impacts on human well being and vulnerabilitiesand vulnerabilities

• in providing knowledge to support decision in providing knowledge to support decision making and risk analysesmaking and risk analyses

• in communicating results and engaging in communicating results and engaging stakeholders in a two-way dialoguestakeholders in a two-way dialogue

*Evaluating Progress of the US CCSP Program: Methods & Preliminary Results

Adaptation options include: Adaptation options include: management, management, technology, institutions, monitoring, & R&Dtechnology, institutions, monitoring, & R&D

Prioritize lands to preservePrioritize lands to preserve Design of migration corridorsDesign of migration corridors Infrastructure to withstand new “extremes”Infrastructure to withstand new “extremes” Linking of reservoirs to enhance supplyLinking of reservoirs to enhance supply Seed banks, mass propagation techniquesSeed banks, mass propagation techniques Emergency response plansEmergency response plans Early warning alert systems / surveillanceEarly warning alert systems / surveillance Incentives / Disincentives / insuranceIncentives / Disincentives / insurance

Assessments should bepolicy-relevant, providenear-term guidance…. ANDidentify missing information most important to future decisions.

Meanwhile, climate-change science is actually being cut! Budget authority in constant FY2007$

Kei Kozumi, AAAS, 2-07

“So as to better inform policy, agencies should continue to make investments to improve our ability to observe, model, assess, and adapt to impacts of climate change, particularly on a regional scale, and to assure the availability of critical long-term climate data.”

Among the President’s FY ’09 Priorities….

But, there is hope…..

U.S. DOE Energy RD&D Spending FY1978-FY2008 Admin. Request

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

mill

ion

2000

$

Fission FusionEfficiency RenewablesFossil (including CCT demo) Electricty T&DHydrogen (non-fossil)

US federal investment in energy-technology research, development, and demonstration

US DOE energy RD&D spending, FY1978-2008

Courtesy Kelly Gallagher, Kennedy School of Gov’t, 2-13-07

U.S. emissions trajectories to 2050

ASES, January 2007

Old Proverb:  It is easier to close the jaws of an alligator when they are small.

Electric Power Research Institute, 2007

There are intersections between mitigation and adaptation…

and water is a linchpin….

Wise integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies needed!

– Sustainable land and water use policies are vital for agriculture, forestry, energy production and biodiversity preservation

– Advanced building designs can maximize energy efficiency & improve indoor air quality

– Renewable energy sources can be a new income source (biomass/wind)

– infrastructure can be constructed to withstand increasing floods and storm surges and with more efficient resource use

ConclusionsConclusions Past is not prologue…Past is not prologue…

• Infrastructure, energy and natural resource Infrastructure, energy and natural resource management and planning based on the last 100 years management and planning based on the last 100 years of climate will be wrongof climate will be wrong

Adaptive Management will be neededAdaptive Management will be needed• In all sectors and regions to cope with changing In all sectors and regions to cope with changing

averages, extremes, and composite stressesaverages, extremes, and composite stresses

Investment is not commensurate with the Investment is not commensurate with the urgency of the problem…urgency of the problem…• Need integrative science assessments and serious RD&D Need integrative science assessments and serious RD&D

in mitigation and adaptationin mitigation and adaptation

Some key references:Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and

Managing the Unavoidable, United Nations Foundation, February 2007 http://www.unfoundation.org/SEG/

“Climate Change 2007”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2000 http://www.ipcc.ch/

Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm

Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, OTA, 1993, Vols. 1&2http://www.gcrio.org/library/1993/otareport/index.htm

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet