Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects

Climate Change Predictions for MENA

• Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050)• Reduced or steady (low) precipitation• Increased incidence of drought, heat waves• Reduced surface water; increased stress on already

depleted groundwater reserves• Sea level rise of .5 meter by 2100• Reduction in agricultural output• Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on

adaptation• Challenge for hydroelectric generation and

irrigation

In an already arid region, climate change will

• reduce agricultural productivity through desertification and drought, increased soil salinity, inability to irrigate

• increase stress on urban populations and their access to safe water,

• inundate many coastal areas, forcing population relocation and further reducing agricultural output

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Water is: Geography:

climate changeMiddle Eastern ariditylocalized adaptation

Water is:

Science: new desalinization techniquesAdaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinitytraditional water gathering/storing/transportingNewly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc.New health challenges and disease vectors

Water is:

Economics: •Agriculture•Hydroelectric projects•Fisheries•Transportation•Urbanization•Tourism•Restrictions on development

Water is:

Politics•legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture in Israel, Jordan river/Golan)•Food shortages/riots•Inequities in water use/access•disputes over river flows and water sovereignty (Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues)•Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq)•international challenge: how do we solve regional issues with global implications?

Water is:

Society: •food riots in Egypt, •urban centers with too little water, •health problems from contaminated water due to reduced river flows, •new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations

Water is:

Culture: •marsh Arabs, •Bedouin, •urbanization, •changing sustenance farming and fishing villages•disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms

Four case studies:

EgyptTurkey

IraqIsrael-Palestine

Egypt

Egypt’s impact on global emissions

Sea Level Rise Effects on Egypt

Turkey

Istanbul skyline

Southeast Anatolian Project

Iraq

Tigris-Euphrates Flow

Measuring Salinity of Soil

Israel-Palestine

Jordan River

Unequal water access