Climate Change in Mega-City Shanghai and its impacts

Zhan Tian, Baode Chen and Jianguo TanShanghai Meteorological Bureau

Outline

BackgroundBackgroundObserved Climate Change in Observed Climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Impacts and Challenges of Climate Impacts and Challenges of Climate Change for Shanghai Change for Shanghai SMB Work on Climate ChangeSMB Work on Climate Change

Background

Shanghai (Chinese: Shanghai (Chinese: 上海上海)) is the largest city in China in is the largest city in China in terms of population and one of the largest urban areas in the terms of population and one of the largest urban areas in the world, with over 20 million people in its extended metropolitan world, with over 20 million people in its extended metropolitan area.Locatedarea.Located on China's central eastern coast near the mouth on China's central eastern coast near the mouth of the Yangtze River, the city is administered as a municipalityof the Yangtze River, the city is administered as a municipalitywith provincewith province--level status.level status.

Location of Shanghai Municipality within China. Coordinates: 31°12′0″N

121°30′0″E

Source: http://Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghaien.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai

Mega Cities in the World in terms of population

Rapid LargeRapid Large--scale Urbanization of Shanghaiscale Urbanization of Shanghai

From 1873 , when instrumental records in Shanghai starting, the annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.4C.

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

年份

气温（℃）上海市区 全球陆地

120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 12230.6

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32

闵 行

宝 山嘉 定

崇 明

龙 华

南 汇

浦 东

金 山

青 浦

松 江

奉 贤

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.8

3.1

3.4

3.7

4

4.3

Positive Temperature trend in the center of city is much larger than its surroundings

During the last 10-year, temperature increased by 0.5C, i.e., a rate of 5C/100y, much larger than the global average (0.74C/100y).

Heat Waves around Shanghai AreaHeat Waves around Shanghai Area

徐家汇热浪分析

y = 0.0193x - 6.4742

y = -0.0271x + 79.431

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

平均气温 露点温度

奉贤热浪分析

y = 0.0154x + 1.3811

y = -0.009x + 44.828

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

平均气温 露点温度

Typical Climate Effects Typical Climate Effects due to Urbanizationdue to Urbanization

Average temperature and dew point during Shanghai heat waves. To qualify, the maximum temperature needs to be greater than 35 C, and the minimum temperature has to be greater than 25 C for three days in a row.

Center of City Suburban Area

Estimation of effects of Estimation of effects of urbanization on surface warming urbanization on surface warming in Shanghaiin Shanghai

OMR ApproachOMR Approach：：OBSERVATION MINUS REANALYSISOBSERVATION MINUS REANALYSIS

High correlation in the inter-annual and inter-decade scales between NNR and OBS

19911991| |

20002000

2001||

2007

Last decade, 2/3 of the surface warming Last decade, 2/3 of the surface warming in Shanghai may be due to changes in in Shanghai may be due to changes in

land surface (urbanization)land surface (urbanization)

Change of Rainfall TypeChange of Rainfall Type

Light rainfall decreased

Heavy rainfall increased

Climatic Changes of Landfall Tropical Cyclones in Climatic Changes of Landfall Tropical Cyclones in China over the past 58 YearsChina over the past 58 YearsBased on the data from the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, Changes of landfall 

TCs in China over the past 58 years (1949‐2006) including tracks, numbers, duration, intensity as well as their probability distributions were examined.

More tropical cyclones More tropical cyclones making landfallmaking landfall

Less tropical cyclones Less tropical cyclones making landfallmaking landfall

Compared with 1949Compared with 1949－－1981, during 19821981, during 1982‐‐2006:2006:

Shanghai electric power consumptionfrom 1985 to 2005

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

电力消费 (亿千瓦小时) 其中，工业电力消费

R2 = 0.9181

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20能源消费

热岛效应强度

热岛效应强度多项式拟合

The relationship between The Urban heat island (UHI) and energy consumption effects from

1985 to 2005

Climate Change Impact on Energy UsingClimate Change Impact on Energy Using

The peach blossom day had advanced 12.3day for 1990s The normal peach blossom day in shanghai is 6 April, now is 25 March.

Climate Change Impact on Shanghai Climate Change Impact on Shanghai PhenologyPhenology

The Death frequency in Shanghai during heat waves

If the mean high temperature during the heat waves is higher than 36.5℃, the death frequency increase largely.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

34.5 35 35.5 36 36.5 37 37.5 38 38.5

平均最高气温 (℃ )

超额死亡率（

%）

0.8 2.2

8.3

15.9

23.827.6

41.9

60.5

87.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 >5

热浪持续时间

超额死亡百分率

The death frequency is also have strong relationship with the heat wave holding days

%

Climate Change Impact on Human HealthClimate Change Impact on Human Health

Now more and more extremely weather events had occurred during the climate change in shanghai

The heavy rain attacked Shanghai at 25 Aug,2008

One hour 117.5 mm ppIt is now recorded in Shanghai’s history

Climate Change Impact on Urban lifeClimate Change Impact on Urban life

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Yangtze Estuary Cityfor Yangtze Estuary City

Risk Vulnerability

Project finished by Fudan University and financially supported by the WWF

The Challenges of Climate Change for The Challenges of Climate Change for MegaMega--City ShanghaiCity Shanghai

Double Challenges:Double Challenges:1.1. Local climatic effects due to rapid largeLocal climatic effects due to rapid large‐‐scale scale urbanization;urbanization;

2.2. Climatic changes associated with the global Climatic changes associated with the global warming;warming;

The related local government agencies, joined by The related local government agencies, joined by universities, research institutions and others, are actively universities, research institutions and others, are actively address the issues of climate change, and making various address the issues of climate change, and making various action plans to face these challengesaction plans to face these challenges

SMBSMB’’ss Work on Climate ChangeWork on Climate Change

Closely following the China’s National Climate Change Programme (CNCCP) and the Action Plan on Climate Change of Chinese Meteorology Administration (CMA):

To carry out scientific research on local climate effects associated with rapid large‐scale urbanization of Shanghai area and climate changes related to the global warming;  

To outline objectives and basic principles, identify areas of actions, as well as make suggestions of polices and measures to address climate change for the local government in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy; 

To provide scientific assistances for the local government’s efforts to enhance society’s capacity to adapt and mitigate climate change.       

Thank YouThank Youfor your attention !for your attention !