Climate Change in India MOEF

7/28/2019 Climate Change in India MOEF

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An Introduction to

Climate Change and India: A 4x 4 Assessment

A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s

Subodh Sharma

MoEF

Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

16th November, 2010. Ashok Hotel, New Delhi


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Outline

The Context

About INCAA

The 4x4 Assessment

Approach Emerging results


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Context

Human Induced Climate change is recognized

as a challenge and threat.

Future projections of climate change indicate

adverse impacts and wide ranging implications.

The concerns of India are even higher Need for assessments of impacts on various

sectors at the regional (state) level especially

on climate sensitive regions


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INCCA

INCCA, network based programme is mandated to

Assess the drivers and implications of climate

change through scientific research

Prepare climate change assessments once everytwo years (GHG estimations and impacts of

climate change, associated vulnerabilities andadaptation)

Develop decision support systems

Build capacity towards management of climatechange related risks and opportunities


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INCCA Programmes


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The 4x4 Assessment Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India

- Himalayan Region

- North Eastern Region

- Western Ghats

- Coastal region

Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on

- Agriculture

- Ecosystems and biodiversity

- Water resources and- Human health affected by climate variability

For 2030s


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The RegionsThe Himalayan Region

The North Eastern region


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The RegionsWestern Ghats

Coastal Region


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The Sectors

WaterAgriculture

Forest & Biodiversity

Health


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ApproachStudied the observed climate and simulated the same using

PRECIS having a resolution of 50 km x 50 km

Developed climate change scenarios for 2030s (average of2021-2050) using PRECIS run on A1B scenario

Changes are deduced w.r.t. the average of the period 1961-

1990s (also referred to as 1970 or baseline)

Using these climate change scenarios, have run biophysical

models and/or developed criteria for determining the impacts

Also used expert judgment to ascertain the likely impacts

where modeling not yet possible


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A1B Scenario

Assumptions

Uniform improvement in Energy Efficiency Reduction in the cost of Energy Supply with use

mixed use of Conventional, Renewable Energy

and Gas Resulting in a balanced mix of technologies,

supply sources with technology improvementswith no energy source being dominant

A sustainable socioeconomic and technologicaldevelopment.


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Institutional

arrangement

Health

Climate ChangeAssessment 2030s

Climate ChangeScenarios

Impacts

Regions Sectors Institutions

Himalayan Region

Western Ghats

Coastal Areas

North-Easternregion

Sea Level Rise

Water

NaturalEcosystems &Biodiversity

Agriculture

IITM

NIO

JU

IITD

GBPIHED

NIO

NRAA

IITM

IITR

CGWB

CARI

JNU

INRM

IISc

GBPIHED

GBPIHED

YSPU

IARI

CMFRI

IIPH

NIMR

Institutions = 18Experts/ Scientists = 43


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Climate Scenario

Made for 2030s using PRECIS run on A1B A

region climate model with 50kmx50kmresolution

The parameters studied

- Temperature

- Precipitation

- Extreme events Sea Level rise included in the committed

projections of global sea level rise


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Salient Findings

Projected Climate Change Parameters in 2030swith respect to 1970s

Extreme

Precipitation

Extreme Temperature

Precipitation

Temperature

North-Eastern

Region

CoastalRegion

WesternGhats

Himalayanregion

Features

Intensity

No. of Rainy days

increase Slightincrease No change decrease

Key

No particular trend


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Emerging Results Temperature Projections

A warming trend is projected for all the 4regions under focus in 2030s


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Emerging Results Projections for Precipitation

The precipitation levels are projected to increase in all

the 4 regions

The number of rainy days are projected to decrease,

however intensity is set to increase


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Sea Level Rise and

coastal inundation

860'0"E

860'0"E

8610'0"E

8610'0"E

8620'0"E

8620'0"E

8630'0"E

8630'0"E

8640'0"E

8640'0"E

8650'0"E

8650'0"E

870'0"E

870'0"E

8710'0"E

8710'0"E

8720'0"E

8720'0"E

8730'0"E

8730'0"E

8740'0"E

8740'0"E

1910'0"N 1910'0"N

1920'0"N 1920'0"N

1930'0"N 1930'0"N

1940'0"N 1940'0"N

1950'0"N 1950'0"N

200'0"N 200'0"N

2010'0"N 2010'0"N

2020'0"N 2020'0"N

2030'0"N 2030'0"N

2040'0"N 2040'0"N

2050'0"N 2050'0"N

210'0"N 210'0"N

2110'0"N 2110'0"N

2120'0"N 2120'0"N

2130'0"N

25

Kilometers

Sea level to rise in

consonance with theglobal sea level rise

Significant coastal

inundation seen witha 1m sea level rise,

especially in the low

lying areas

Coastal inundation (shown in red) map of Paradip region for a 1.0 m sea-level


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Transmission windows for

Malaria

Net Primary Productivity

Water resources

Agricultural productivity

North-Eastern

region

Coastalregion

WesternGhats

Himalayanregion

Features

increase Slightincrease No change decrease

Key

Salient Findings

Trends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B

No particular trend


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Emerging results -

Agriculture

There is a general decreasein productivity of crops

however cash crops likecoconut may increase.

Some species of marinefisheries are likely to have

higher catch compared toothers as their area ofspawning shifts to higherlatitudes

The livestock productivityis likely to be affectedadversely with increase in

extreme temperatures

Irrigated rice Rainfed rice


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Projected changes - WaterWater yield

Himalayan region: is likely

to increase

North Eastern region:

Reduction

Western ghats:Variablewater yield changes

projected across the

region

Coastal region:A general

reduction in water yield


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Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Forests:Changes in vegetationtype and decrease in NetPrimary productivity is projected

Grass land:Enhanced CO2levels are projected to favor C3plants over C4 grasses, but theprojected increase intemperature would favour C4

plants

Coral reefs:Increase intemperature will lead tobleaching of corals

Mangroves:Sea-level riseleading to increase the salinitymay favour mangrove plantsthat tolerate higher salinity

Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical

deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreenbroadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreenconifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduousforest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7:Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixedforest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11:Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14:

Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice

Projected changes in Forest vegetation


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Projected Changes in Human Health

Likely increase inmorbidity due to risein extremetemperatures

Likely increase inmorbidity andmortality due toincrease in waterborne diseases(enhanced flooding

and SLR) Reduced crop yieldsmay raisemalnutrition cases(climate)

Increase in incidence

of malaria due toopening up oftransmissionwindows at higheraltitudes (climate)

1970s 2030s

Transmission windows of Malaria


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The Programme for the Day


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Thank You!

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Climate Change in India MOEF