CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA POST-COPENHAGEN: WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Simon Carter Program Manager, Climate Change Adaptation
International Development Research Centre Nov. 26, th 2009
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Outline of talk How is Africa affected by climate change? Can
Africa adapt to climate change? How? What is needed to support
adaptation?
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Why are African nations asking for developed countries to
commit to deeper emissions cuts? Reduction of GHG by developed
countries of 40% compared to 1990, by 2020 How is Africa affected
by climate change?
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Climate change is happening now Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report, 2007
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What people are experiencing and less predictable Extreme and
unpredictable weather Rising sea levels Shrinking water resources
Soil degradation Livelihood stress Physical insecurity Food
insecurity Getting hotter and drier
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Increasing impacts: drought in Kenya Source: Oxfam (2006):
Making the case. A national drought contingency fund for Kenya.
2009 Famine Early Warning System. Numbers of people directly
affected by drought
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Emissions are increasing faster than anticipated Source:
Raupach et al, 2007
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Future scenarios and possible impacts of continued emissions
growth Can only be estimated, using models Multiple models can be
compared to identify robust patterns Very conservative (eg IPCC
scenarios)
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Five degrees warmer? Percentage change in length of growing
period, 2090s compared with present, for the average of the three
AR4 SRES scenarios scaled to a global temperature increase of 5C,
means of 14 GCMs. CropYield (kg per ha) % Yield Change 2000s 2090s
+5C Maize954706-26 Beans656305-54 B. decumbens 13861368 Source:
Thornton and Jones, 2009
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(Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group II Chapter
9) Increased exposure to water stress by 2055
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Can Africa adapt? Not to five degrees of warming Uncertainty is
very great pace, extent, costs Underlying, non-climatic factors
limit peoples adaptive capacity limited success in addressing these
factors No solutions paradigm shift needed
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People are adapting - and we know a lot about how to support
their efforts
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Vulnerability: Who? Where? To what?
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Existing livelihoods are changing
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Adaptation can be enhanced, in familiar ways
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Launched 2006 by DFID & IDRC CAD $65 million 46 projects
across continent Action research and capacity building Climate
Change Adaptation in Africa program (CCAA)
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Capacity development through Participatory Action Research
Desired conditions Present conditions Planning: Define desired
conditions and actions to achieve them Monitoring: describe present
conditions and follow implementation of actions
Reflection/evaluation: compare present conditions to the desired
ones, assess the value and effectiveness of actions Learning:
Adjust actions to reach desired conditions more effectively;
gaining knowledge through iteration Action, monitoring Reflection,
evaluation Planning Learning
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Adapting to drought in northern Kenya
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Strengthening adaptive capacity in Rural Benin
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Felix Levoavy, farmer, member of the local reflection group in
Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar Adapting to change in
Madagascar
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Paulette Marisoa, farmer, member of the local reflection group
in Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar