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Climate Change Is your farm ready?
Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change with input from
Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
• Changing global climates, past, present and future
• Weather impacts – a time-limited example of climate
• Regional climate – understanding future climate at a county level
• Climate projections with an agricultural twist
• Anticipating the short term impacts – weather
• Provincial programs supporting the agricultural community
• Pragmatic take-home thoughts
• Wind
• Water
• Heat
• Planning cycles and return on investment
Overview
2
Climate Has Been and Will Continue Changing
3
Te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
Climate Model Projections for 2050s
United Nations Panel on Climate change
– Much greater change in the northern hemisphere, much greater uncertainty by 2100
4
Weather is the day to day manifestation of climate
Whereas climate is measured in years and decades, weather impacts are measured by the minute, hour, day, week and month
Impacts of weather
5
Predicting Ontario’s Climate
The United Nations and federal government develop global models at a scale of 100’s of kilometers
Ontario (MOECC and MNRF) have been supplementing these with more refined regional models that better reflect and predict local weather that takes into account local factors
6
Comparison of Observations of
Extreme Storms with RCM and GCM
The granularity in predictions matters
7
Projections and agriculture
8
What is growing in
Guelph today?
• Can you say “now in
Sault Ste. Marie”?
How about Virginia?
• Can you say “will be
in Guelph?
Kapuskasing?
Weather and agriculture
Rural populations served by groundwater under siege
• Warmer climate means wetter over-all but it will fall as sleet in the winter and not recharge the rural aquifers
• Hotter, dryer summers result in higher demands on groundwater
Ice instead of snow
• Impacts on tender fruit, roads, wires
Extreme events overwhelming natural and constructed infrastructure
• Spring rains eroding fields, removing nutrients and soils
• Storage of manure, etc
9
232
232.5
233
233.5
234
234.5
1-Jan-07 31-Jan-07 2-Mar-07 1-Apr-07 1-May-07 31-May-07 30-Jun-07 30-Jul-07 29-Aug-07 28-Sep-07 28-Oct-07 27-Nov-07 27-Dec-07
Date
GW
Ele
vati
on
(m
asl) GW Level
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Below Level 1 May
2007
JULY
SEPT
NOV
Weather and agriculture con’td
10 J F M A M J J A S O N D
% o
f an
nu
al
load
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
co
ncen
tratio
n (z
-sc
ore
)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
load
concentration
Weather and agriculture cont’d
Weather and agriculture cont’d
Anticipate more frequent and severe wind-storms
• Are new buildings adequate?
• What about existing structures?
Overall expect summers to be hotter, winters milder
• Are your buildings and practices ready for multiple +30 degree days?
12
Provincial programs
Guidelines and directives
• Provincial “climate ready” action plan up for review
• Inclusion in the Provincial Policy Statement
• Consideration in the Great Lakes programs
• Evaluating sensitivity and adaptation
• Building into Growing Forward and the Environmental Farm Planning process
• Included in OMAFRA research priorities
13
Provincial programs - models
Downscaling model results through academia
• Keeping them refreshed as the United Nations updates global models
• Making the data available
• Encouraging it’s use and application broadly
14
Ontario Climate Change Projections
by York University (MOECC) Combined downscaled climate data
(http://lamps.math.yorku.ca/drupal/ontariogmap )
Ontario Climate Change Data Portal
(OCCDP) by University of Regina
(MOECC) Dynamically downscaled climate data
(http://ontarioccdp.ca)
Simple Provincial Climate Mapping (MNRF) Statistically downscaled climate projections for Ontario
http://www.ontario.ca/environment-and-energy/climate-change-
regions-and-districts
Working with the wine Industry Potential Impacts of Climate
Change • Increased winter damage
• Impact on Varieties
– Shifts away from whites to high
quality reds
– Shifts to less cold-hardy whites such
as Sauvignon blanc
• Impact on geographic
distribution of viticulture areas
• Impact on Phenology of Pests – Likely increase in pests and due to
milder winters
• Impact on Quality • Accelerated ripening
• Lower acidity and higher sugar and
alcohol levels
• Full maturity of mid to late season
varieties
Wine Industry –Adaptation
• Adapt to the Warmer / Wetter Climate, More Frequent Freeze and Thaw – Develop disease resistant, cold resistant varieties
– Plant new varieties
– Move into new areas (i.e. Huron, Grey in the North)
• Adapt to the Dryness – Develop water conservation measures
– Implement effective irrigation techniques, such as drip irrigation
– Develop canopy management practices to conserve moisture
– Effectively mulch the soil and plant mid row crops in order to absorb more water
• Invest in Crop Insurance
Thanks to Prof Tony Shaw, Brock University, 2014
Historical IDF curves Historical R-factor
Future R-factor
?
1. Future projected IDF curves are available at http://www.ontarioccdp.ca.
Historical soil erosion rates
Future IDF curves1 Future soil erosion rates
Incorporating the future R-factor into the
Universal Soil Loss Equation model will help to
evaluate adaptive management practices.
Soils and Adaptation
?
Pragmatic thoughts #1
Ideally
• Using local (10km) predictions coupled with farm by farm risk assessments, evaluate risks and risk-tolerance to arrive at candidates for adaptation strategies
• Develop and implement strategies
• Consultants exist that can do this with producers, $$
18
Pragmatically
• Back of the envelope evaluations
• Consider
– 1) risks
– 2) exposure
– 3) tolerance
– 4) adaptation possibilities
– 5) adaptation strategies
– 6) implement
– 7) review/update
Pragmatic thoughts #2
Wind
• Are your existing structures sound?
– How’s that backup power?
• Are there exposures to “wind tunnels”
– Are wind-breaks feasible?
• New buildings versus old
– Over-design new, retrofit old, check your insurance
• Practices (cropping, livestock)
– Thinking like a hurricane
19
Water
• Winter sleet/ice
– Access roadways, slopes
– Fruit trees, winter crops
• Drought
– Is your well reliable?
– What is your backup plan?
• Flood/hail
– Control of water around buildings/operations
– Erosion/loss of fields
Pragmatic thoughts #3
Heat
• Are you ready?
– Think about crops, livestock your employee’s and family
• Pestilence
– As the weather warms, new pests will move in
20
Planning/financial
• New builds/buttress
– Over-building in a new build much cheaper
• Existing codes for agriculture do not reflect future climate,
– Upgrading of structures linked to risk tolerance:
• does your insurance cover a do-nothing approach?
• Would your insurance cover if attempted adaptation didn’t work
• Life-cycles
– Short-term practices versus long-term changes, moves or shifts
Next steps
A conversation
• Changing MOE mandate
– Climate critical programs
• Climate change discussion paper pending
– Dialogue on both adaptation and mitigation
– Both a short-term (2020) and a longer term perspective
– Carbon pricing a key component
• OMAFRA as a key player – Engaging the community and
representing you at the table
21
Resources
http://toolkit.climate.gov
www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects.htm
www.yieldgap.org
http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/weather/adverse
weather.html
http://animalagclimatechange.org/
http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/water-and-climate-
risks-facing-u.s.-corn-production-how-companies-and-
investors-can-cultivate-sustainability/view
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