Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Pilot Study
THEMATIC CENTRE l Drought, Water and Coasts
Climate change impactson the hydropower sector in Trentino, Italy
Three pilot studies werecarried out under theOrientGate Thematic Centreon Drought, Water andCoasts: on climate changeadaptation in the new waterregime in Puglia Region, Italy(Pilot Study 3); on the effectsof climate change on thewetland ecosystems ofAttica Region, Greece (PilotStudy 4); and on waterresources and the use ofhydroelectricity in theAutonomous Province ofTrento, Italy (Pilot Study 5).
Establishing theresearch team
The Autonomous Provinceof Trento contributed tothe OrientGate projectwith a study of theimpacts of climatechange on waterresources, with particularreference to the use ofwater for the productionof hydroelectric power tomeet the needs of thewhole of the province. Thestudy was carried out bythe Civil DefenceDepartment incollaboration with theAgency for Energy and Water Resources andthe Department of Civil,Environmental andMechanical Engineeringof the University of Trento.
Study sites
Given the complexity of the area, the research was concentratedin two sample river basins: the basin of the Noce, where there areimportant glacial areas and various large plants exploitinghydroelectric power; and the basin of the Brenta, where there areneither glacial areas nor hydroelectric plants with large reservoirs.
Objectives
The study was designed to identify and analyse indicators of theavailability for water resources, both in natural conditions and in theevent of anthropogenic exploitation, focusing in particular on thepotential for hydroelectric power production. The study aimed toevaluate areas of vulnerability in order to achieve the sustainableuse of hydropower in the context of climate change and thediversified use of water resources.
The ultimate goal was to propose criteria for improving policiesrelated to the development of hydroelectric power and toincorporate the results when drawing up and establishing prioritiesfor area planning.
Stakeholder involvement
As the project addresses questions of a wide-ranging andmultidisciplinary nature, during the development of the pilot studythere was a direct exchange of ideas with key stakeholders, includingtechnical staff in the public administration, climate researchers,university professors, scientists and politicians. Taking theircontributions into consideration, the project content was adjusted inorder to ensure that the output responds to the real needs of thosewho will make use of it.
Climate expectations
The climate scenarios used in the study are based on regional-scalesimulations produced by the Centro Euro Mediterraneo suiCambiamenti Climatici. Two possible future scenarios in relation tothe concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) werechosen from the four so-called representative concentrationpathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange in its Fifth Assessment Report. The first involves thestabilisation of GHGs (RCP4.5), while the second assumes acontinuous increase (RCP8.5). According to the scenarios, acontinuing rise in temperatures can be predicted for Trento, bothannual and seasonal, with a far more marked increase in summer, in both the short term (2020–2050) and the longer term (2040–2070).
As far as precipitation is concerned, there is expected to be alimited annual decrease, with greater variability over the seasons. Asignificant decrease is expected in summer, and to some extent alsoin spring, while an increase is predicted in winter.
Hydrological scenarios
In order to develop reliable scenarios, climatic and hydrologicalmodelling had to be combined. Hydrological modelling makes itpossible to reconstruct runoff towards surface watercourses startingfrom meteorological forcing, measured on the ground or madeavailable through weather simulation models. The GEOTRANSFhydrological model was adopted for use in the study. Developedby the University of Trento’s Department of Civil, Environmental andMechanical Engineering, the model was calibrated and validatedusing historic datasets of streamflow measurements, starting fromrecorded temperature and precipitation datasets. The model wasthen applied to climatic forcing, with reference to future scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2020–2050 and 2040–2070.
Impacts on water resources and hydroelectricity The most evident impact of climate change in the future is related to
seasonal variations in the water cycle. Warmer summers with less rain
could mean more significant episodes of water scarcity. The rise in
temperatures will encourage the progressive depletion of glaciers and
will bring forward the beginning of the snow melting period earlier in
the spring. In autumn and winter more rain is expected, while snow will
accumulate at higher altitudes due to higher temperatures.
The greater availability of water in the winter will not, however,
compensate for the significant decrease expected in the summer,
thus there will be a slight decrease in annual runoff. This will have an
impact on water resources used for hydroelectric power generation,
and a slight fall in withdrawal volumes is estimated over the year.
Putting results into practiceThe hydropower sector faces important climate-related challenges
that threaten its sustainability. While the drive to exploit alternative
energy sources has led to a significant increase in the number of
small hydropower plants, the uncontrolled development of this
energy source can have a huge impact on ecosystems and lead to
greater conflicts between sectors competing for water resources.
The pilot study evaluated the impacts of climate change,
particularly in terms of the seasonal availability of water and
changes that will exacerbate problems related to the management
of water resources in competing sectors, such as drinking water
supply, agriculture and hydropower, especially in the summer.
Although more research is needed, the pilot study results have yielded
valuable input that allows policy makers to promote the ecologically
sustainable management of water resources in the future.
11
33
6622
22
44
55
ContactsLead partner, project coordinatorAntonio Navarra Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) l Via Augusto Imperatore 16 l 73100 Lecce, Italy l Email: [email protected] l
www.cmcc.it
Giulia GalluccioEuro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) l Corso Magenta 63 l
20123 Milan l Italy l Tel.: (39-02) 520 36988 l
Email: [email protected] l
www.cmcc.it
www.orientgateproject.org
Pilot Study 1: Adapted forest management at LTER Zöbelboden
Pilot Study 2: Climatechange adaptation measures in Romanianagriculture
Pilot Study 3: Climatechange adaptation in the new water regime in Puglia Region, Italy
Pilot Study 4: Effects of climate change on thewetland ecosystems of Attica Region, Greece
Pilot Study 5: Water resources and the use of hydroelectricity, Italy
Pilot Study 6: Vulnerabilityassessment in Budapestand Veszprém
Pilot study 5 coordinatorRoberto BarbieroAutonomous Province of Trento l Piazza Dante 15 lTrento l 38100 Italy l Tel.: (39-0461) 494 875 l
Email: [email protected] lwww.provincia.tn.it
Pilot study 5 scientific coordinatorSerenella SaibantiAutonomous Province of Trento l Piazza Dante 15 lTrento l 38100 Italy l Tel.: (39-0461) 494 860 l
Email: [email protected] lwww.provincia.tn.it
