IFPRI

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Climate change impacts on water and food in Pakistan

and options for adaptation

Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Tim Sulser, Andrew Bell, Mohsin Iqbal

The IMPACT Model Models global demand, yield, and trade of 38 agricultural economies at country-level resolution IMPACT-WATER model incorporates water availability across 126 basins as a driver Draws on supply, demand, and trade data from FAOSTAT, UN, World Bank, IFPRI Runs scenarios for growth in urban area, population, income, or changes in yield or yield elasticities, etc.

Climate affects water and food through changes in temperature and precipitation

Change in max temperature (degree C) Change in annual rainfall (mm)

2000 2050 2000 2050

Azad Kashmir 27.7 +1.4 to 3.2 765 -139 to +18

Baluchistan 38.6 +1.3 to 2.6 151 -3 to +55

F.A.T.A. 34.4 +1.7 to 4.1 482 -45 to +33

F.C.T. 38.6 +1.4 to 3.4 911 -105 to +12

N.W.F.P. 30.2 +1.5 to 3.5 609 -80 to +26

Northern Areas 17.0 +1.5 to 3.2 194 -14 to +51

Punjab 41.6 +1.4 to 2.6 299 -32 to +77

Sind 41.6 +1.2 to 2.7 171 +12 to +90

Scenarios: MIR-A1, ECH-A1, CSI-A1, CNR-A1

Source: IFPRI, 2012

Impact of CC on runoff

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Impact of CC irrigation

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Wheat yields (reference scenarios)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Global wheat prices (reference scenarios)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Rice yields (reference scenarios)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

CC increases PAK net cereal imports

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Parameters

INC AG RES:

SRF_PAK1

INC AG RES w/EFF:

SRF_PAK2

INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR

EXP: SRF_PAK3

PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4 (PAK3 +

PAK_BE)

Livestock n growth

+ 30% + 30% + 30% n.c. n.c. + 30%

Livestock yield growth

n.c.

+ 30% from 2015

+ 30% from 2015

n.c. n.c. + 30% from

2015 + 50% from

2030 + 50% from

2030 n.c. n.c.

+ 50% from 2030

Food crop yield growth

+ 60%

+ 60% + 60% n.c. n.c. + 60% + 78% from

2015 + 78% from

2015 n.c. n.c.

+ 78% from 2015

+ 90% from 2030

+ 90% from 2030

n.c. n.c. + 90% from

2030

Irrig effic n.c. +20% +20%

Storage +50% gradually until 2050, total 5.3 MAF

Irrigated area growth

n.c. n.c. + 25% n.c. n.c. + 25%

Rainfed area growth

n.c. n.c. - 15% n.c. n.c. - 15%

Six Adaptation scenarios

n.c. = no change

Average Yield Impact, Alternative Adaptation Scenarios, 2050, compared to CC Scenarios

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

PAK1 PAK2 PAK3 PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4

Rice Wheat Maize Cotton

Note: results are average of 4 CC and 1 noCC scenario runs. Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

PAK wheat trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

PAK rice trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

KCAL consumption in 2010 and 2050 (NoCC and CC scenarios)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

KCAL consumption in 2050 (NoCC, CC, and adaptation scenarios)

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012

Adaptation for irrigation

Notes: IWSR values were averaged across four climate change scenarios and the NoCC case, for No Adapt and the two water-based adaptation scenarios.

Conclusions

Climate change impacts in Pakistan affect crop yields and food production negatively

Cereal imports need to increase significantly as a result of climate change

Investments in agricultural research and water can reduce the adverse impacts of CC

Under the most far-reaching scenario, combining large investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation efficiency, PAK could become a net wheat exporter

Conclusions

Irrigation water supply is relatively insensitive to storage augmentation, in part as only 5.3 MAF is added gradually over 40 years

The most effective water-based adaptation is to invest in irrigation efficiency improvement, for which Pakistan has great potential

Strong agricultural and water investments in PAK alone can improve PAK calorie availability under CC and thus help reduce malnutrition levels, but adverse CC impacts drive up prices globally; thus caloric improvement remains limited as higher global prices affect food affordability in PAK as well