1

Climate Change Goals for the

Metropolitan Washington Area

Climate Change Steering CommitteeFebruary 27, 2008

Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP

2

Regional Goals & Ways to Get Regional Goals & Ways to Get ThereThere

Propose Short-Term Goal (2012)Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Low Hanging FruitLow Hanging Fruit

Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 20052005 Actions to Reach GoalActions to Reach Goal

Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050)Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050) Policies to Reach GoalPolicies to Reach Goal

3

Projected Emissions and Proposed Reduction Targets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2e E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n M

T)

2005 Base Year

BAU

Reduction Targets70%

20%

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Regional Short Regional Short Term Goal: Term Goal:

20122012

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Long Term and Short Long Term and Short Term GoalsTerm Goals

Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize ClimateClimate

Spur investment in new technologySpur investment in new technology Incentive for technological innovationIncentive for technological innovation

Short Term GoalsShort Term Goals to Insure Immediate to Insure Immediate ProgressProgress Analyze strategies using existing Analyze strategies using existing

technologytechnology Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, Nearer term year is easier to comprehend,

anticipateanticipate

6

Local Government Short Local Government Short Term GoalsTerm Goals

Cool Counties agreement : Cool Counties agreement : Stop Stop emissions growth in 2010emissions growth in 2010

Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by below 1990 by 20122012

7

Proposed Short Term Proposed Short Term Goal: 2012Goal: 2012

Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012

2005-2012 Emissions expected to 2005-2012 Emissions expected to increase by 7%increase by 7%

Achievement of 7% reduction goal by Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would return regional emissions 2012 would return regional emissions to 2005 levelsto 2005 levels

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Low Hanging FruitLow Hanging Fruit

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Individual ActionsIndividual Actions

Individuals contribute an estimated Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e per year7 tons CO2e per year Residential energy use (37%)Residential energy use (37%)

Appliance use, AC and heatingAppliance use, AC and heating Transportation (63%)Transportation (63%)

Personal car use, mass transit, air travelPersonal car use, mass transit, air travel

Source: M. Vandenbergh, “Carbon Neutral Individual,” 2007

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Total use per Total use per householdhousehold

Metric Metric tons tons CO2CO2 %%

HeatingHeating 1.581.58 24%24%

Electricity.Electricity. 0.870.87 13%13%

Transp/Auto/AirTransp/Auto/Air 4.134.13 63%63%

TOTALTOTAL 6.586.58 100%100%

Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions

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Individual GHG EmissionsIndividual GHG Emissions

Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 emissions in the U.S.emissions in the U.S.

Individuals can play an important role Individuals can play an important role in achieving short and long term targetsin achieving short and long term targets

Some behaviors can be modified to Some behaviors can be modified to generate large emission reductions generate large emission reductions (“low hanging fruit”)(“low hanging fruit”)

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TransportationTransportation

Buy more efficient carBuy more efficient car Carpool w/ 2 othersCarpool w/ 2 others Cut shopping trips in Cut shopping trips in

½½ Alter driving habitsAlter driving habits Get frequent tune-upsGet frequent tune-ups Maintain tire Maintain tire

pressurepressure

Subtotal:Subtotal:

20%20%

4%4%

2%2%

2%2%

2%2%

1%1%

31%31%

Reduction

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Household Energy ReductionHousehold Energy Reduction Weatherize houseWeatherize house Install efficient HVACInstall efficient HVAC Reduce inside temp to Reduce inside temp to

6868oo

Install efficient water Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20heater, reduce by 20oo

Install efficient Install efficient appliancesappliances

Change bulbs to CFLChange bulbs to CFL

10%10% 8%8% 4%4% 3%3% 2.5%2.5% 1.0%1.0%

SUBTOTAL: 28.5%

Reduction

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//Illustration of Impact of Consumer Reductions on Overall CO2

Emissions (2012)

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10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

BAU 60% Reduction

CO

2e E

mis

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(mil

lio

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All Else

Consumers

Impact of 60% Reduction in Consumer Emissions

by 2012

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60% Reductions from 60% Reductions from ConsumersConsumers

Assumes 2012 BAU emissionsAssumes 2012 BAU emissions 33 percent are consumers33 percent are consumers Consumers can reduce by 60%Consumers can reduce by 60% BAU is 82.3 million MTBAU is 82.3 million MT Reductions would be 16.3 million Reductions would be 16.3 million

MTMT Equivalent to about 20 percent from Equivalent to about 20 percent from

overall BAU.overall BAU.

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Midterm Goal: Midterm Goal: 20202020

How to get How to get there…there…

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Example: Transportation Example: Transportation Scenario for 2020Scenario for 2020

Transportation EmissionsTransportation Emissions 2005 to 20202005 to 2020 Increase 24.6%Increase 24.6% Reduction Goal:Reduction Goal: Reduce: 20% below Reduce: 20% below

20052005

Reduction MeasuresReduction Measures CAFÉ Standards CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0%Reduce 20.0% 55 mpg by 202055 mpg by 2020 Reduce 5.1%Reduce 5.1% VMT limit (?)VMT limit (?)

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Measures to Reduce Regional GHGMeasures to Reduce Regional GHG

RGGIRGGI

RPSRPS

Biomass Fueled Power PlantsBiomass Fueled Power Plants

Green BuildingsGreen Buildings

Energy ConservationEnergy Conservation

Low Carbon FuelLow Carbon Fuel

Low Emission VehiclesLow Emission Vehicles

Smart Growth/Reduced VMTSmart Growth/Reduced VMT

CAFE/CAL LEVCAFE/CAL LEV

Tree Canopy ConservationTree Canopy Conservation

  

2%2%

3%3%

3%3%

2%2%

5%5%

1%1%

1%1%

2%2%

4%4%  

  

Apply to DC/MD/VAApply to DC/MD/VA

10% RPS, applied to all 10% RPS, applied to all electricity, electricity,

MD 8%MD 8%

40 % buildings 10-30 % 40 % buildings 10-30 % reduction, reduction,

Assume 15%, double counts with Assume 15%, double counts with GBGB

Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012

Above and beyond CAFÉAbove and beyond CAFÉ

Between 2% and 10%Between 2% and 10%

14% based on COG DTP14% based on COG DTP

AssumptionMeasure %

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How to Get 20 % Reduction by 2020

Emission Reduction Opportunities (2005-2020)

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10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

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100.00

2005 Emissions 2020 Emissions/Reductions

CO

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mis

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ns

(mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s)

CAFE/CAL LEV

Smart Growth/Reduced VMT

Low Emission Vehicles

Low Carbon Fuel

Energy Conservation

Green Buildings

Biomass Fueled Power Plants

RPS

RGGI

Uncontrolled

20% Reduction

Goal

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Long Term Goal:Long Term Goal: 2050 2050

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IPCC Stabilization IPCC Stabilization Scenario- 2050Scenario- 2050

IPCC recommends reduction in IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2050 of global CO2 emissions in 2050 of 50-50-8585 %% (of 2000 emissions (of 2000 emissions

Stabilization defined as CO2-eq Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at 445-490 ppm, concentration at 445-490 ppm,

Global mean temperature increase Global mean temperature increase kept at 2.0-2.4kept at 2.0-2.4oo C C

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Proposed Long Term Proposed Long Term Regional Regional

GHG Reduction GoalGHG Reduction Goal

Based on science in IPCC Report and Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent with the Warner consistent with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goalsLieberman bill’s reduction goals

70% below 2005 by 2050

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Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005)

Source: MWCOG estimates.

CO2 Emissions by Sector for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region

Transportation30%

Electricity41%

Fuel Use25%

Others4%

Transportation

Electricity

Fuel Use

Others

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Estimated Washington Region CO2 Emissions, 2005-2030 (Business As Usual)

MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007

Draft CO2e Emissions Projections for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region

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20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2005 2010 2020 2030

CO

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(mil

lio

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Other

Fuel Use

Electricity

Transportation

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List of Actual and Potential List of Actual and Potential Government Programs to Government Programs to Reduce GHG EmissionsReduce GHG Emissions

Federal MeasuresFederal Measures Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE)Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE) Energy Efficient appliance standardsEnergy Efficient appliance standards Establish price and trading for carbon Establish price and trading for carbon

emissionsemissions Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor

vehiclesvehicles Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar,

wind, hydro)wind, hydro) Support nuclear energy researchSupport nuclear energy research

State Measures:State Measures: CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissionsCAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions RGGIRGGI Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of

Energy Efficiency goals)Energy Efficiency goals) Require GHG emissions analysis as part of Require GHG emissions analysis as part of

Environmental Impact analysesEnvironmental Impact analyses

LocalLocal Purchase of alternative/renewable energyPurchase of alternative/renewable energy Increase tree canopyIncrease tree canopy LED traffic lightsLED traffic lights Incentives to build to LEED standards (green Incentives to build to LEED standards (green

buildings)buildings) Education and OutreachEducation and Outreach

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

Federal

State

Local

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RecommendationsRecommendations

Adopt Regional Climate Change Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals:Goals: 20122012Reduce GHG emissions by 7%Reduce GHG emissions by 7% 20202020Reduce GHG emissions by 20% Reduce GHG emissions by 20%

below 2005below 2005 20502050Reduce GHG emission by 70% Reduce GHG emission by 70%

below 2005below 2005