Climate Change, fragility and conflictWhat are the security implications of climate change for the EU?

„Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability.”

„Human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes.”

www.newclimateforpeace.org

“Climate change is a global threat to security in the 21st century.”

3

Compound climate-fragility risks

• Risks and conflict dynamics are already

observable today.

• No simple causal link between climate change

and fragility.

• Climate change converges with other pressures

and shocks and increases the risks to the

stability of states and societies.

Climate change acts as a risk multiplier

Climate change a global threat to security

in the 21st century

• Quellen: Asianet-Pakistan / shutterstock.com, Paco, Charles Roffey/flickr.com

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Seven compound climate-fragility risks

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS

LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION

VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION

TRANSBOUNDARYWATER MANAGEMENT

SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION

UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE

POLICIES

LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION

1. Global pressures are increasing

2. Creating 7 compound risks that threaten states & societies

INCREASING RESOURCE DEMAND

CLIMATE CHANGE

POPULATION GROWTH

UNEVEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & INEQUALITY

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

URBANIZATION

5

7 compound climate-fragility risks

UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF

CLIMATE POLICIES

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT

SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION

VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS

LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION

LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION

LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION

LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS

VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT

SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION

UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF

CLIMATE POLICIES

6

Complex climate-fragility risks

7

Building resilience against climate fragility risks

8

Un Photos, UN Security Council

Foreign policy

• Make climate diplomacy a priorty

• Move beyond crisis management to

preventative action and diplomacy, for example

water diplomacy

• Policy coherence and integration, for example

international frameworks (Paris, SDGs, etc.)

• Prepare the multilateral system (UN system)

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UN Photos, MINUSTAH, Haiti

Development cooperation & humanitarian aid

• Better link development cooperation and

humanitarian aid need to go beyond treating

symptoms

• Provide integrated financing streams

example IcSP

• Link climate change adaptation and

peacebuilding example UN Env. project

10

UN Photos, MINUSMA Peacekeepers, Mali

Defence and security policy

• Move beyond questions of disaster response

and greening military operations

• Broaden strategic thinking: Understand how

climate change could alter the broader contours

of defense policy (incl. geopolitics)

• Incorporate climate planning into defence and

strategic planning, in particular requirements

and early warning systems

• Advocacy

adelphi

Alt-Moabit 91

10559 Berlin

Germany

T +49 (0)30-89 000 68-0

F +49 (0)30-89 000 68-10

www.adelphi.de

office@adelphi.de

•Lukas Rüttinger

•Senior Projekt Manager

•ruettinger@adelphi.de