Climate Change: Evidence and Implication€¦ · Climate Change: Evidence and Implication Thursday, July 25, 2013, 9:20 a.m. Dr. Mark Seeley Faculty Member University of Minnesota

Climate Change: Evidence and Implication Thursday, July 25, 2013, 9:20 a.m.

Dr. Mark Seeley Faculty Member University of Minnesota St. Paul, Minn. Mark Seeley joined the faculty of the University of Minnesota in 1978. He has served as an extension climatologist and meteorologist working closely with the National Weather Service, the Minnesota State Climatology Office, and various state agencies. Since 1992, Mark has been a weekly commentator on Minnesota Public Radio's "Morning Edition" news program and helped Minnesota Public Television produce award-winning documentaries about historical weather events. Seeley is the author of Minnesota Weather Almanac, published by the Minnesota Historical Society Press in 2006. In 2011, he co-authored “Voyageur Skies: Weather and the Wilderness in Minnesota’s National Park” with photographer Don Breneman. His honors include the Sigma Xi Scientific Communication and Education Award in 2001 and 2008, the Extension Dean and Director’s Award for Distinguished Extension Faculty in 2006, the University of Minnesota President’s Award for Outstanding Service in 2012. Session Description: The analysis of data from a number of regional climate networks (some of which go back to the 19th Century) shows some significant change in the climate behavior. There have not only been changes in central tendencies and extremes, but also in pattern and character. These changes have not been without consequences. This session will examine statistical measures of temperature, water vapor, and precipitation to illustrate these changing quantities and patterns, and then link these changes to observed and documented consequences.

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Climate Change: Evidence and Implication Session Outline

Overview 2012 Climate Headlines

• Year-to-Date Temperature Anomalies for Contiguous U.S. • January-December 2012 Statewide Ranks • 2012 Drought Specific Disaster Declarations by County-Most Ever • Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters

Recent Significant Climate Trends in the Western Great Lakes

• Seasonality in Temperature Change • Warm Nights are Increasing • Minnesota State-Averaged Mean Annual Temperature • Seasonal Temperature Trends in MN • Frequency of Temperatures -30 Degrees F and Colder at Pokegama Dam, MN • Historical Ranking and Distribution of Statewide Mean Daily Temperature Over the Past

15 heating Seasons • Trends in Mean Monthly Temperatures at Austin, MN • Trends in Mean Monthly Temperatures at Willmar • Amplified Trends in Average Winter Minimum Temperatures International Falls, MN • Trend in Dewpoints of 70 F or Higher in the Twin Cities • Minnesota Statewide May Through September Mean Temperature - Ranking of the Past

19 Air Conditioning Seasons • Frequencies of July Tropical Dew Points (70 F or Higher) and Associated Heat Index

Values for the Twin Cities Since 1945 Historical Perceptions

• Historical Minnesota Heat Waves • Minnesota State-Averaged Annual Precipitation • Change in Annual Precipitation Normals at Willmar, MN • Change in Annual Precipitation Normals at Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN • Change in Annual Precipitation Normals at Brainerd, MN • Measurable Attributes of Precipitation • Percentage Change in Very Heavy Precipitation • Historical Recurrence Interval of 2 Inch Rains in Northern IA and Southern MN Once

Per Year • NOAA Atlas 14 - Precipitation Frequency Estimates • June 2012 – Excessive Rainfall • St. Louis River at Scanlon, MN

Changing Minnesota Climate Features • Shift in Precipitation Recurrence Intervals? • Wright Flood – July 17-19, 1867 • Historic Droughts • Climate Singularity • Number of MN Counties Designated for Federal Disaster Assistance in 2012 • Can Natural Variability Explain Recent Tropopause Height Changes? • 2010 Minnesota Tornadoes

Climate Consequences

• Some Consequences of Climate Change • Cloud Variations

Scales of Extremes Q & A

Climate Change:Evidence and Implication

Dr. Mark SeeleyDept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of MinnesotaSt Paul, MN 55108

National Association of Mutual Insurance CompaniesAgricultural Risk Inspection School

July 23-25, 2013Bloomington, MN

TOPICS2012 Climate Headlines

Historical Perceptions

Changing Minnesota Climate Features

Climate Consequences

Scales of Extremes

2013 NAMIC Agricultural Risk Inspection School - Seeley Page 1 of 21

Stationary (1)

Cyclical (2)

Variability (3)

Trend Shift (4)

Changnon et el

Perceptions of climate behavior are built into the design of our

infrastructure (1,3)

Climate Science Fundamentals

Three Reasons to Accept That Climate Change is Real

• Measured attributes of the Earth climate system are changing (temp, precip, cloud)-3 data sets

• Models mimic measured climate changes more accurately with parameterized human disturbance (land use, emissions) included

• Observed and measured physical and biological consequences fit with the measured climatic changes


www.cloudappreciationsociety.org

For those who doubt or wish to dismiss the evidence that climate is changing in Minnesota….the data indicate it is happening and already producing

consequences. It is clearly poor judgment to ignore this!

Rabbits in the sky A Poodle in the sky

Snail in the skyPig in the sky


2012 Drought specific disaster declarations by county-most everRecord number of counties, and record subscription to Federal Crop Insurance


Vulnerability and Consequences Remain Key Societal Issues

Implications for land use, building codes, insurance, and infrastructure

Nearly $1.0 trillion in losses from the past 32 years (current dollars)

RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES

•TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNAL CYCLES SHIFTS

•DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR

•MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY), THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION


Figure 3.10Seasonality in temperature change

Warming is weighted towards minimum temperature change


Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the 90th

percentile

Seasonal Temperature Trends in MN

Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M)

Summer (J,J,A) Fall (S,O,N)


Frequency of temperatures -30 degrees F and colder at Pokegama Dam, MN

1887-1936 average 10 nights per year1937-2012 average 3 nights per year

Last two decades less than 1 night per year

Historical ranking and distribution of statewide mean daily temperature over the past 15 heating seasons (Nov-Mar) in MN: 1=warmestWinter Mean Temp (F) Ranking (since 1895)

1997-1998 24.2 6th

1998-1999 23.0 9th

1999-2000 26.0 2nd

2000-2001 15.8 80th

2001-2002 25.0 3rd

2002-2003 19.3 42nd

2003-2004 20.3 29th

2004-2005 21.2 21th

2005-2006 23.2 7th

2006-2007 22.3 12th

2007-2008 16.9 64th

2008-2009 16.4 73rd

2009-2010 21.5 18th

2010-2011 17.1 62nd

2011-2012 27.8 1st

2012-2013 18.6 39th


Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +3.0 +2.1 +2.5February +0.1 +0.2 +0.1March -0.1 -0.1 -0.2April +1.3 +0.2 +0.7May +0.9 -0.8 +0.1 June +1.6 -0.4 +0.5July +1.1 +0.2 +0.7August +1.6 +0.4 +1.0September +1.3 +0.6 +1.0October +1.7 -0.3 +0.7November +2.1 +1.7 +1.9December +2.2 +1.4 +1.8

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Willmar 1971‐2000 normals vs 1981‐2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +3.4 +1.5 +2.9February +0.8 +0.9 +0.8March +0.9 +1.2 +1.0April +0.7 +1.5 +1.1May +0.1 -0.1 NC June +0.5 +0.2 +0.3July +0.7 +0.5 +0.6August +0.4 +0.7 +0.5September +0.9 +1.0 +0.9October +0.5 +0.5 +0.5November +1.3 +2.3 +1.7December +2.1 +1.7 +1.8


Amplified trends in average winter minimum temperatures International Falls, MN

Period of Record1951 - 19801961 - 19901971 - 20001981 - 20101951 - 19801961 - 19901971 - 20001981 - 20101951 - 19801961 - 19901971 – 20001981 - 2010

Ave Min Temp in Deg. FJan -11.0Jan -8.4Jan -8.3Jan -6.6Feb -4.8Feb -0.7Feb -0.6Feb -1.3Mar 8.9Mar 12.3Mar 12.6Mar 12.5

Trend in dewpoints of 70 F or higher in the Twin Cities

Hours with dewpoints of 70 degrees F or higher at Voyageurs National Park

Latitude 45 degrees

Latitude 48.5 degrees


Minnesota Statewide May Through September Mean Temperature Ranking of the past 19 Air Conditioning Seasons (1994-2012)

1=warmestYear Percentile Rank since 1895 (mean temp)

1994 48 (62.8 F)1995 * 36 (63.3 F)1996 * 75 (61.9 F)1997 67 (62.1 F)1998 6 (64.8 F)1999 * 36 (63.3 F)2000 64 (62.3 F)2001 * 22 (63.8 F)2002 * 36 (63.3 F)2003 * 42 (63.1 F)2004 105 (60.3 F)2005 * 30 (63.6 F)2006 * 19 (63.9 F)2007 * 10 (64.6 F)2008 84 (61.7 F)2009 89 (61.4 F)2010 * 31 (63.5 F)2011 * 39 (63.2 F)2012 * 6 (64.8F)

* Indicates dewpoints of 80 F or higher, +preliminary data

Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) and associated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since 1945

Year Hours with DP of Range of Heat70 F or greater Index Values (F)

1949 223 98 - 1121987 223 98 - 1041955 206 98 - 1131999 192 98 – 115 (116*)1957 192 99 – 1142001 182 98 - 1101977 160 100 - 1081983 157 102 - 1101995 110 98 - 1162002 305 98 – 1092004 108 98 - 1052011 243 98 – 118 (*134)2012 186 99 - 117


1883, 1894, 1901, 1910, 1917, 1921, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1983, 1988, 1995,1999, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011,

2012(pattern is episodic but increasing in frequency)

Historical Minnesota Heat Waves:

Red denotes dewpoint driven


Change in Annual PrecipitationNormals at Willmar, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 23.01”1931-1960 24.47”1941-1970 27.63”1951-1980 27.71”1961-1990 28.21”1971-2000 28.23”1981-2010 29.46”

28 percent increase since 1921-1950 period

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” for Minneapolis/St Paul, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)1941-1970 25.93”1951-1980 26.36”1961-1990 28.36”1971-2000 29.40”1981-2010 31.16”

20 percent increase since1941-1970 period


Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Brainerd, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 23.03”1931-1960 24.68”1941-1970 25.59”1951-1980 26.02”1961-1990 26.40”1971-2000 27.55”1981-2010 28.38”

23 percent increase since 1921-1950 period

Quantity

Type (liquid,frozen)

Intensity (9-15”)

Frequency (74-145 days)

Duration (10 days)

Seasonality (shifting)

Landscape relationship

(interception, absorption, runoff, evaporation)

Measurable Attributes of Precipitation


Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in northern IA and southern MN is once per year.

Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 – 2012 and maximum single day value for various communities:Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)Rosemount 42 5.80 (7/23/1987)Albert Lea 39 7.50 (6/15/1978)Waseca 43 5.63 (9/23/2010)Winona 35 4.95 (8/19/2007)Zumbrota 43 6.46 (6/27/1998)Winnebago 41 8.64 (9/25/2005)Bricelyn 39 9.22 (9/14/2004)Amboy 36 9.48 (9/23/2010)Hokah 33 15.10 (8/19/2007)


Access to NOAA-Atlas 14

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/noaa_atlas_14.html

June 14, 2012nearly 9 inches of

rainfall at Cannon Falls.

June 19-20, 20127-10 inches of rainfall in

parts of Carlton, St Louis, and Lake Counties


St Louis River at Scanlon, MN90 fold difference in 5 months

Nov, 2012

Jun, 2012

Shift in Precipitation Recurrence Intervals?

(Three “1000 year events since 2004)

New NOAA Atlas 14 due out in March 2013


Wright Flood

July 17-19, 1867

All-time greatest MN flash flood with 30-36 inches of rainfall

Chippewa River 4 miles wide

Mississippi River rose by 12 ft in 24 hours

All log booms on the Mississippi were flushed (35 million logs)

1829, 1852, 1856

1863-1864, 1871-1872

1894, 1896, 1900,

1910, 1918, 1921-1923

1926, 1929-1934,

1936-1939, 1948,

1954-1956, 1961,

1976, 1980, 1984,

1987, 1988, 1997, 2006,2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012

Historic Droughts(Associated fires)


X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

XXX

X

X = 24 counties included in USDA drought disaster declaration of August 7, 2007

Note: adjacent 32 counties were also eligible for assistance

X= Counties included in federal flood disaster declaration of August 20, 2007 and eligible for FEMA assistance

Climate Singularity

MN Counties designated for federal disaster

assistance in 2012

All are associated with drought

except those with

Which designates for flood or severe

storm


Can natural variability explain recent tropopause height changes?

Increase in mixing depth as the atmosphere warms

48 on June 17, 2010

First ever EF‐5 Tornado in Canada, (Elie, Manitoba) June 22, 2007

First 4 inch thunderstorm rainfallChurchill, Manitoba, Aug 24, 2010


Some Consequences of Climate Change

Longer growing seasons-change in plant hardiness zonesShorter duration of soil and lake freezingLater fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)Change in over winter survival rates of biological organismsChange in fisheries management (stocking, fishing opener, etc)Opportunities for invasive species (insects, pathogens, etc.)Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)Longer mold and allergen season (health care)Amplified moisture variability-impacts on tile drainage, irrigation, surface and ground water systems-growing list of impaired watersMore heat advisories and heat warnings (health care/livestock)Increased risk of soil erosionWork on flood mitigation and storm sewer runoffGrowing list of impaired waters

Looking for cloud nine

Kissing clouds

Mouse cloud

Donut cloud

Michelin Man cloud Duck cloud

Images courtesy of the Cloud Appreciation Society


Recommended resources:

Emanuel, Kerry, Layzer, Judith, and William Moomaw. 2007. What

We Know About Climate Change. By Boston Review Books.

Henson, Robert. 2006. The Rough Guide to Climate Change. 2nd

Edition. Published by Rough Guides, 320 pp.

My web sites:

www.climate.umn.edu

www.climate.umn.edu/seeley

http://www.climate.umn.edu/

http://www.climate.umn.edu/seeley

Documents

Climate Change: Evidence and Implication€¦ · Climate Change: Evidence and Implication Thursday, July 25, 2013, 9:20 a.m. Dr. Mark Seeley Faculty Member University of Minnesota