Climate Change, Conflict, and Children

Richard AkreshUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

March 2015

Introduction and Motivation Research Questions:

What is the evidence linking climate variability to conflict?

What is the evidence measuring the short and long-term impacts of children’s exposure to conflict?

Introduction and Motivation How is conflict defined?

Interstate wars, civil conflicts, genocides, ethnic cleansing, political and neighborhood violence, localized rioting or disputes have all been examined under the rubric of conflict research

Conflicts vary in their duration with some lasting days and others decades, how many individuals are exposed and/or displaced, whether deaths are concentrated among soldiers or civilians, and their underlying reasons for occurring

Figure 1: Distribution of Articles, by Region

Africa

Asia

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Figure 2: Distribution of Articles, by Type of Conflict

General Civil Conflict Inter-Ethnic Interstate Riots0

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ClimateChildren

Research Overview: Climate-Conflict Links Seminal research showing link between reduced

rainfall and civil wars in Africa

However, climate change models much less certain about future rainfall changes than about temperature changes

Subsequent work showing link between hotter temperatures and conflict

If historical relationship holds, climate change models showing 1 degree Celsius hotter temperatures lead to 54% increase in conflict

Research Overview: Climate-Conflict Links Debate is still on-going

Relationship might not hold for smaller scale conflicts or other time periods

Recent research examines link between more localized climate variability and more localized violence

Research Overview: Conflict-Children Impacts Most of literature measuring impacts of conflict on

children focused on: Health (stunting, mortality, birthweight)

Education (years of schooling)

Mental health (depression)

Other (labor markets, political beliefs, gender violence)

Figure 4: Distribution of Conflict and Children Papers, by Outcome

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Education Physical Health Mental Health

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Research Overview: Conflict-Children Impacts Individuals exposed to conflict in utero or early

childhood suffer negative health/education effects Evidence much thinner when focusing on long-term

impacts or measuring precise timing during a child’s life of when conflicts matter most

In contrast with other types of negative shocks, exposure to conflict not correlated with gender bias against girls

Little known about mechanisms through which conflict impacts education/health, how households cope with conflict shocks, impact of conflict on other outcomes including intergenerational transmission of shock

Gaps in the Conflict-Children Literature Measuring conflict exposure correctly Exposure outside of in utero and first 1000 days of

life may matter All children impacted not just girls: What is different

about conflicts compared to other types of shocks? Mechanisms? Coping strategies Untangle how different types of conflicts have

similar/different impacts Other outcomes besides education/health

EXTRA SLIDES

Figure 3: Breakdown of Conflict Data Used in Climate Change-Conflict Research Papers

33%

13%

8%6%

8%

12%

21%UCDP/PRIO

CRU

SCAD

ACLED

Local Police Department

National Crime Records

Other