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Climate Change
By Pratibha Singh IFS
UP State Biodiversity BoardLucknow , Uttar Pradesh
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Precipitation patterns have changed
Sea Levels have risen
IPCC ConclusionsWarming of the climate system
1. Increasing in global average air and ocean temperatures
2. Rising global average sea level
3. Reductions of snow and ice
Warmest 12 years on record
Source: IPCC . Climate change 2007 : Synthesis report
GEO 4 Unprecedented environmental change is indisputable
– The red areas on these two images show the expansion of seasonal melting of the Greenland ice sheet from 1992 to 2002.– The Yellow line shows the temperature increased by 1ºC from 1900 to 2000
GEO 4 Asia and the Pacific is vulnerable to climate change
Climate change will impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia-Pacific
South Pacific
. The Most vulnerable states ……
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other
changes in the climate system
Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th
century
1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in
Northern Hemisphere
Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about
0.2 ºC per decade
10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s
Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice
over 20th century
Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by
10-15% since 1950s
40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades
Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th
century
0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude
precipitation during 20th century
2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern
Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
The (very!) basic idea
Sunlight shines on the earth
Some bounces off clouds (and other obstacles), but much of it
reaches the ground
The earth warms and radiates the sun’s heat back into space…
But some of this heat is absorbed by “greenhouse gases” in the
atmosphere…
And some of this captured heat radiates back to ground, warming
it up more, etc.…
Without this insulating blanket, the earth would be much less
hospitable to life
The moon has no greenhouse gases, andits surface temperatureis much lower thanthe Earth’s.
Too much of a greenhouse “blanket” is bad for life, too
The runaway greenhouse effect on Venus
Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0 Natural influences only
Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0 Human and natural influences
Global temperature changes, 1900‐2010
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0 Observed temperature change
Global temperatures rose, 1900‐1940
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0
Then fell from 1940 to 1970…
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0
And global temperatures have been rising ever since…
1900 1920 1950 201020001970
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
-0.5
0.5
0.0
Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations and Anthropogenic Emissions of Carbon Dioxide
Carbon CycleThe Earth’s positive imbalance between emissions and absorption results in the
continuing growth in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the
pre- industrial era
Global mean temperature changes
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial
level
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Years Before Present
Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record
Current(2001)
Projected(2100)
0100,000200,000300,000400,000(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2C
once
ntra
tion
(ppm
v)
Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs
Projected Temperatures During the 21st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last
1000 Years
Per capita
By GDP
Co2
concerns
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Water: Water availability, floods and droughtsNumber of people exposed to water stress
Ecosystems: Species number and risk of extinctionCoastal wetlands, areaCoral bleaching Species range shifts and wildfire risk
Food: Productivity of cerealsLocal impacts on small holders
Coasts: Number of people exposed to flooding each yearDamage from floods and stormsAverage rate of sea level rise
Health: Changed distribution of some disease vectorsNumber of people exposed to malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio‐respiratory, and other infectious diseases, Morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts
Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea
level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying
deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one
meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity
projected
present
Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years
Climate change is projected to decrease
agricultural productivity in the tropics
and sub-tropics for almost any amount
of warming
Wood fuel is the only source of
fuel for one third of the world’s
population
Wood demand will double in the
next 50 years
Forest management will become
more difficult due to an increase
in pests and fires
One third of the world’s
population is now subject to
water scarcity
Population facing water scarcity will more than
double over the next 30 years
Climate change
is projected to
decrease water
availability in
many arid- and
semi-arid
regions
Climate change will exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years
Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services
Food and Fiber Production
Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of Biodiversity
Maintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Agricultural Lands CoastalZones
ForestLands
FreshwaterSystems
Arid Lands & Grasslands
Climate change will affect the ability of ecological
systems to provide a range of essential ecological
goods and services
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share
of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and
technological capacity and access to knowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest
countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in
health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing
countries
World Population 6,056,528,577
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-
Changing Planet
The choices are ours…………We need to decide……….
Thankyou!!