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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE PROOF” IN SPAIN. OUTLINE. Overview of Spanish Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Climate change on previous River Basin Management Planning efforts Current results on assessment of climate change impact on water resources - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER
MAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE
PROOF” IN SPAIN
Overview of Spanish Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Climate change on previous River Basin Management
Planning efforts
Current results on assessment of climate change impact on
water resources
Legal requirements and methodology for making next River
Basin Management Plans “climate proof”
OUTLINE
Aim: Integration of adaptation to climate change into the planning strategy of the different socio-economic sectors and ecological systems in Spain (mainstreaming)
July 2006:Formal approval at CCPCC
Need to evaluate impacts of climate change on water resources within the framework of the National Program of Adaptation to Climate Change in Spain.
SPANISH CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
COMUNICATION
PARTICIPATION MONITORING
CAPACITYBUILDING
COORDINATION COMMISSION FOR
POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE (CCPCC)
NATIONAL CLIMATE
COUNCIL (CNC)
Biodiversity
WaterAgriculture
…
Fishing
Health
EnergyTourism Forestry
ASSESSMENT OF SECTORS AND SYSTEMS
ASSESSMENT INCLIMATIC AREAS
…PlateauPyrenees
Mediterranean coastal area
North coastal area
Socioeconomic Conditions
ClimaticConditions
RegionalClimate
Scenarios
Socioeconomic Scenarios
SCENARIOSINTEGRATION (including Regional
Plans)
INTEGRATION (including Regional
Plans)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN Coordination: OECC
INTER-MINISTERIAL
GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(GICC)
River Basin Management Plans approved in 1998 did not
consider the effect of climate change in water resources
The effect of climate change on water resources was
considered for the first time in the elaboration of the
technical documentation for the National Hydrologic Plan
(PHN) in year 2000
PREVIOUS RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS
Temperature increase of 1ºC
RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Temperature increase of 1ºCPrecipitation reduction of 5%
WEAK SCENARIO STRONG SCENARIO
OTHER IMPACT STUDIES
Percentage of runoff
decrease under several
climate scenarios
ASSESSMENT REPORT OF PRELIMINARY IMPACTS IN SPAIN DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASED PRESSURES ON WATER RESOURCES
Reduction of natural water resources
Increase of water demands
Increase of human intervention on hydrologic cycle
IMPORTANT EFFECTS ON RELATED SECTORS
Environment, agriculture, tourism, energy or industry
In some cases water resources may be a limiting factor for development
CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN WATER RESOURCES
New legislation, RD 907/2007 about River Basin Management
Plans: It is mandatory to consider the effects of the climate
change in the plans
Draft Technical Guide: River Basin Management Plans must
consider water resources under the climate scenarios
foreseen by the Ministry of Enviroment
NEW RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS
PRINCIPAL ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Research about the potential effects of Climate Change in:
Water resources in natural regime Water demand (irrigation, urban supply and industry) Available resources in water distribution systems Ecological status of water bodies
The Spanish Center for Hydrographic Research (CEDEX) is working on it, with the management of the DGA
(Directorate of Water)
INPUT FOR RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS
ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME
Recent results:
PRUDENCE project
Revision and updating of
former assessments
HYDROLOGY OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
PRUDENCE regional model show very large variability and do not reproduce observed hydrological variables well
USE OF A HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL:
The SIMPA model was developed by CEDEX and it was used
for the elaboration of the White Paper on Water in Spain
Model boundary conditions: climate scenarios developed by
the National Meteorological Service (INM)
Model results are hydrological monthly time series for all
Spanish river basins (streamflow in rivers, recharge of
groundwater bodies…)
ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME
- Rainfall-Runoff model - Global for Spain
- 1 km2 grid - Monthly scale
PRECIPITATION
ACTUAL ET
SURFACE RUNOFF STREAMFLOW
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL: SIMPA
Climate change impact assessment on water demand for
different uses
Direct assessment: Development of several models
describing the relationships between climate variables and
water consumption in different sectors
Indirect assessment: Effect of impacts in other sectors on
water demands (population changes, hydropower,…)
Adaptation proposals: demand management, new and more
efficient infrastructures, crops change…
WATER DEMAND (Irrigation, urban supply and industry)
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT MODEL: AQUATOOL
WATER AVAILABILITY IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS
METHODOLOGY FOR WATER AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
Climatic Variables
SIMPA
Monthly Streamflow
Water Availability
AQUATOOL
Water Resources System
Climate
Change
Scenarios
RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS
REDUCTION OF NATURAL FLOW REDUCTION OF AVAILABILITY
Evaluation of climate change impact on ecological status of
water bodies is the most difficult activity.
It requires deep knowledge of the species distribution in
lakes, rivers and reservoirs and on the relationship between
them and environmental conditions.
Use of Bioclimatic Envelope Models, BEMs
ECOLOGICAL STATUS OF WATER BODIES