Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in ... · Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in the UK Mark Broadmeadow1 Tanja Wohlleber1, Scott Wilson2,

Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in the UK

Mark Broadmeadow1

Tanja Wohlleber1, Scott Wilson2, Duncan Ray3 and Yvonne Grieves3

1Environmental and Human Sciences Division, Alice HoltResearch Station, Forest Research

2Consultant Forester and Forest Ecologist

3Ecology Division, Northern Research Station, Forest Research

www.forestresearch.gov.uk/climatechange

COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006

Overview• Background• Modelling suitability of quality hardwood species in a

changing climate– approach– suitability maps– importance of soil mapping: beech case study

• Climate change adaptation: provenance selection in ash– analysis of existing experiments

– new ‘climate change provenance trial’

• Conclusions


Predicted climate of the 2080s

summer

winter

Low (B2) scenario

High (A1Fl) scenario

High (A1Fl) scenario

Low (B2) scenario

temp rainfall

+50

+30

+10-10

-30

-50

Source: Hulme et al. (2002). UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006

The Gulf Stream ‘We state with medium to high confidence that although the strength of the Gulf Stream may weaken in the next 100 years, is is unlikely that this would lead to a cooling of the UK climate over this timescale’

UKCIP, 2002

I stand by every word we carefully agreed in UKCIP02. Don't let people subvert good science.

Mike Hulme, 30 April 2004

Source: Hulme et al. (2002). UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.


2050s-2060s mean air temperature -after collapse of ‘Gulf Stream’

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate PredictionCOST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006

1961-902050s Low2050s High2080s High

Climate matching - Little Wittenham


360 ppm CO2

700 ppm CO2

Impacts - direct effects of rising CO2

•Faster growth rates - ~50% in young trees; •timber quality affected; •lower water use;•increased leaf area.


Oak chronology at Alice Holt - the effect of rising carbon dioxide levels

in recent years?


Modelling future species suitability- Ecological Site Classification (ESC)

•ESC is a knowledge-based model; productivity distribution data are used to inform decisions;•ESC was developed to support the UK forestry industry in commercial species selection;

•there are limitations to the analysis:–rising atmospheric CO2 levels are not accounted for;–changing incidence of pests and diseases not accounted for;–changing frequency of storm events not accounted for.


ESC methodology

Accumulatedtemperature(day degrees > 5oC)

Moisture deficit (mm)

Windiness(DAMS)

Continentality(Conrad index)

Soil moisturequality index

Soil fertilityquality index

GYC

ƒSMR

ƒMD

ƒD

ƒC

ƒSNR

(m3 ha-1 yr-1)

Suitability criteria for sessile oak

verypoor

poor medium rich veryrich carbonate

verywet

wet verymoist moist fresh slightly

drydry very

dry


Esc yield - sycamore


Esc yield - silver birch


Esc yield - downy birch


Esc yield - ash


Nothofagus1961-90 2050s High2050s Low


ESC yield for beech - UKCIP02 2050s scenarios

1961-90 2050s Low 2050s High


ESC yield for beech - UKCIP02 2080s scenarios

1961-90 2080s Low 2080s High


Denny woodNew Forest


Podsol: Stourhead Penridge

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

c


Gley: Epping forest

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Loam: Friston

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Masting in beech: a draw on resources?

• Beech mast at Covet wood (kg ha-1)– 2002: 1777– 2003: 27– 2004: 2358– 2005: 187– 2006: ~2000 (mark 1 eyeball)


The influence of provenance selection

Dunnottar - Scotland Grimsthorpe - England Slovenia


Ash provenance trial


Seedling vigour and climatic origin

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

300 400 500 600 700

potential evapotranspiration (mm yr-1)

heig

ht g

row

th (%

of m

ax.)

UKcontinental


Oak provenance trial sites


Flushing date, frost damage and

seed origin

y = 1.5287x + 39.306R2 = 0.744

105

110

115

120

125

130

42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58origin latitude

2004

flus

hing

dat

e

y = -0.1866x + 30.174R2 = 0.6616

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

105 110 115 120 125day of flushing

Mea

n A

pril

Tem

p (o C

)


Climate change provenance trials


Final thoughts• Growth rates will increase in response to rising CO2 levels

and then decline in response to drought.• The timing and magnitude of the response will be

determined by soil type.• Native species will continue to grow, but………..

• What will be the role of timber in a sustainable new world?• Should we return to managing woodlands with the

production of quality timber a key objective?• Are native populations of broadleaf species likely to be

adapted to the climate of the future?• Can we afford to ignore the genetic resource at our

disposal?


Documents

Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in ... · Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in the UK Mark Broadmeadow1 Tanja Wohlleber1, Scott Wilson2,