Climate Change and Disaster Risk 1

Implications for policy and practice

Session 2World Bank Institute

Maarten van Aalst

Climate Change and Disaster Risk 2

Global warming

and global disaster impacts

What will global warming mean for disaster impacts?

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The poorest people and poorest countries are most vulnerable

Source: ISDR/CRED

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Developing countries most vulnerable

(1) Susceptibility to impacts

Closer to margin of tolerance for temperature and precipitation changes (more drought- and flood- prone areas)

Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure and therefore higher losses of human life

Coastal vulnerability 49 out of 50 countries with shore protection costs due to climate change above 0.5% of GDP are less developed countries

Economic structure Larger share of the economy in climate sensitive sectors, such as agriculture

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Developing countries most vulnerable

(2) Lower capacity to adapt

Know-how and Education

Institutional Capacity

Availability of Technology

Wealth

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Climate change is a socio-economic concern

Climate change is not just an environmental issue

Economic development and poverty alleviation are at risk

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OECD: Exposure of donor-funded development activities

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Risks to development

Direct physical threats

Risk of underperformance

Risk of maladaptation(development that creates or exacerbates vulnerabilities)

In addition, projects may fail to take advantage of opportunities related to climate change

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From macro to micro

Kiribati: 33 atolls, rarely more than 3 meters above sea level

2100 Worst Case Scenario with Storm Surge

2100 Worst Case Scenario

Present Times

Economic damages in the absence of adaptation: 17-34% of GDP by 2050

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Impacts on livelihoods right now

A dying pandanus forest due to saltwater intrusion after a storm surge

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Integrated climate risk management

The way to address these concerns is not to separate management of risks related climate change from other issues (for instance through stand-alone projects)but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, sector programs, projects and other activities.

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Climate risk management as an opportunity

Enhanced climate risk management

Guards investments and livelihoods in a changing climate,

but also enhances resilience to current climate variability and extreme weather events,

and improves the impact of development efforts and sustainability of local livelihoods right now.

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Climate risk management at the national level

Climate risk management should be integrated in regular plans, programs and policies (including budgetary processes)

Attention is needed for measures as well as policies and regulations (including enforcement)

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Climate risk management: reaching out Climate risk management requires a long-

term process linking bottom-up consultation with top-down planning

Involvement of private sector, communities and NGO’s is vital