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CLIMATE CHANGE AND CAPE TOWN:
WHAT KEEPS ME AWAKE AT NIGHT?
UCT SUMMER SCHOOL
Helen Davies
Environmental Management Department
25 January 2017
Outline
2
Framing the policy: projected climatic changes &
impacts and energy & emissions picture
Climate change policy approach
What keeps me awake at night?
Implementation to date
Closing the gap
Framing the policy: projected climatic changes &
impacts and energy & emissions picture
Most likely projected climatic changes – Cape Town
4
Future impacts of changing climate on Cape Town
5
Future impacts of changing climate on Cape Town
6
Source: Cape Town State of Energy 2015
7
GHG emissions per capita (energy only, all fuels)
(tCO2e/capita) 2007: 7,32 2012: 5,55
Between 2001 and 2012
Total energy consumption growth 26,8%
Annual average energy consumption
growth rate
2.18%
Average annual population growth rate 2.6%
Average annual economic growth rate 4%
Current fuel
sources
Liquid fuel Fuel imports
Electricity (mirrors
national mix)
Eskom coal-based 91%
Eskom nuclear based 4%
Renewable energy (REIPPP) 5%
Cape Town's contributions to global anthropogenic climate
change
Cape Town's contributions to global anthropogenic climate change
8
GHG emissions per capita (energy only, all fuels)
(tCO2e/capita) 2007: 7,32 2012: 5,55
Carbon emissions by sector, Cape Town, 2012*
Carbon emissions by energy source, Cape Town, 2012*
Climate change policy approach
City’s climate change policy approach
work differently &
collaboratively
10
potential
opportunities
lagged effect of GHG
emissions
socio-economic issue -
environmental consequences
already feeling
impacts
natural environment & resource
efficiency – build resilience
2030 – 2/3 world's
population in cities
City’s climate change policy approach cont.
Contribute to global efforts to
reduce GHG emissions
Prepare for change at local level to
reduce risks & build adaptive
capacity
Lev
ers
Own operations Influencing others
Fiscal reform Planning
Stimulating
green economy
Ecological infrastructure &
EBA
Legislation
Awareness
raising Pricing
Spin offs:
• Improved energy security
• Reduced costs
• Improved air quality
Spin offs:
• Improved quality of life
• Sustainable development
• Long term fiscal efficiency
11
ADAPTATION MITIGATION
Networks – City not a bubble
Implementation to date
Adaptation projects
Transport
Infrastructure & networks at risk
Sustainable design and construction of roads
South Peninsula Transport Corridor risk
assessment & intervention
Spatial planning
Framework of Resource Efficiency Criteria for Development in the City of Cape Town
Integration of climate change into Integrated Development Plan (IDP)
Water
Water conservation and water demand
management programme
Feasibility studies for alternative water
supplies
13
Adaptation projects cont.
Human settlements
Incorporating national
building standards incl.
adaptation measures
into human settlements
Biodiversity
City’s Local Biodiversity Strategy & Action Plan &
BioNet
Invasive species unit
Atlantis land bank
14
Adaptation projects cont.
Stormwater & disaster management
Modelling flooding & sea level rise impacts for Salt River and Eastern
catchments
Increased stormwater pipe diameter
WSUD principles – Cape Town SDF & Urban Design Policy
Ecosystem based adaptation
Flood risk reduction plan for all informal settlements
Coastal management
Integrated Coastal Management Policy and Plan
Coastal setback lines
Coastal Protection Zone Bylaw
Coastal overlay zones
Greenways Golf Estate coastal erosion
Glencairn railway line revetment study
15
Mitigation projects
City building energy
efficiency retrofits
City street light
energy efficiency
retrofits
Rooftop PV installations & feed in
tariffs
Fleet greening – own cars &
MiCiti
16
Mitigation projects cont.
SWH supplier
accreditation
programme
Electricity
savings
campaign
Commercial
energy
efficiency
forum
Low cost
housing
ceiling retrofits
17
Mitigation projects cont.
Darling Wind
Farm &
Atlantis
Special
Economic
Zone to
support
‘Greentech’
companies
Waste to
energy
projects
Framework of
Resource
Efficiency
Criteria for
Development
in City of
Cape Town
Transport
Oriented
Design
&
Travel
Demand
Management
Plan
18
International networks & commitments – City role
19
Value add?
National networks Durban Adaptation Charter
Covenant of Mayors
What keeps me awake at night?
21
How do we fundamentally change how we work to catalyse action at scale and
with urgency? i.e. transformative change
People Technology / approaches
Finance Networks
MIND THE GAP
People: We all view the world with different lenses
22
Which word do you see 1st?
Have to make the time to understand others’ challenges & collectively find solutions
People: Understanding uncertainty
23
Is climate change real?
Timing of change – when?
Magnitude of change – how big?
Change in frequency – how often?
Rather
Use of scenario planning & narratives
People: Managing in the face of uncertainty
24
Understand change management
Build networks & relationships
Access technical support
Cost benefit analyses – LT approach
Examples from elsewhere – networks
Resilience = good development
Technology & approaches
Untested vs. tested
Financial management frameworks
Fear of white elephants
Life cycle costing
Retrofit vs. replace when obsolete
Finance: City budgets
City budget
City budget
?
Finance: City budgets cont.
City budget
City budget
Vs.
Finance - options
preventative vs reactive ?
buffer to absorb shocks
spending to save?
what tradeoffs?
who has what mandate / responsibility?
how to prioritise?
Upfront questions:
use of existing budgets (City and National): more
efficient, reshuffle
changes informed by CBA and policy alignment
external funding – reveune, grants, loans,
green bonds
Networks – City co-dependent
Risks
Adaptive capacity
Strengths / mandates
Roles
Business
Civil society
Academia
NGOs
Other spheres of government
Industry
Educators
Closing the gap
1. Bring everyone along 2. Enable innovation 3. Develop & use alternative forms of
financing 4. Only possible in collaboration with
others
