Climate change and Agriculture - Sorghum ID...2nd European Sorghum Congress Milano, 7 and 8 November 2018 outline • Our Climate is changing – An unchallenged reality – The role

2nd European Sorghum Congress Milano, 7 and 8 November 2018

06/11/18

LABORATOIREDESSCIENCESDUCLIMATETDEL’ENVIRONNEMENT

•  ClimateChange:Whatarewecertainabout?Whataretheremaininguncertainties?

•  Howcanclimatologistsandtheagriculturalworldworktogethertoanticipateandadapt?

Climate change and Agriculture

NathaliedeNobletDirectricedeRechercheauLaboratoiredesSciences

duClimatetdel’EnvironnementCo-coordinatricedulaboratoired’excellenceBASC–

Biodiversité,Agrosystèmes,Société,[email protected]


outline

•  Our Climate is changing –  An unchallenged reality –  The role of Human actions –  What has happened at the scale of our countries (example: France)

•  Don’t mix up: climate change and climate variability are not the same

•  Climate has already imprinted the farming sector

•  What futures for our climate? –  In the world? –  In France?

•  How can you and climatologists work together ? è the

development of climate services


We’ve already reached 1°C of global warming

IPCC,SR1.5,2018



We are warming at a rate of ~+0.2°C/decade

IPCC,SR1.5,2018



IPCC,SR1.5,2018


AC3A–Août2014 6

Allexpectedconsequencesofawarmerclimatehavebeenobserved

IPCC,2013

Climate change: an unchallenged reality


Climate change: an unchallenged reality

ObservedClimateextremessincethemid20thcentury[cycloneshaveonlybeenobservedsince1970]

IPCC,2013


Climate change: attribution to human causes

Timeevolutionofsurfacetemperaturechange–overcontinents

Timeevolutionofsurfacetemperaturechange–overtheglobe

IPCC,2013


Climate change: attribution to human causes

IPCC,2013


Climate change: what happened in France?

Global mean annual temperature increases ∆temp. compared to

1961-1990

And so does the mean annual temperature in France … even more

http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/-Impacts-du-changement-climatique,2907-.html



Figure6fromthebook«Lesimpactsdu

changementclimatiqueenAquitaine»

Changesinmeanannualtemperaturebetween1900and2006



Number of summer days – T ≥ 25°C

+4 days / decade, Paris

+6 days / decade, Toulouse

Number of frost days – T < 0°C

-5 days / decade, Nancy

-3 days / decade, Paris

http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/-Impacts-du-changement-climatique,2907-.html


Climate change ≠ climate variability

Years

Time evolution of a climate variable

Variability

Change


Climate change ≠ climate variability

Years

Time evolution of a climate variable

Variability

Change

The planet can be warmer but

we can still experience some cold

years!


The imprint of climate change in the farming sector Common Wheat: yields

ObservedyieldsinAquitaine,Poitou-Charentes,France.DatafromFranceAgriMer.

Brissonetal.2010


The imprint of climate change in the farming sector Corn - Maize SowingdatesEvolution des dates de début de semis du Maïs dans quatre UE

30-mars

9-avr

19-avr

29-avr

9-mai

19-mai

29-mai

8-juin

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Année

Dat

e

Mirecourt Colmar Le Pin Auzeville

ObservedfromanumberoffarmsinPoitou-Charentes

DatafromCoopdeFrancePoitou-Charentes.

Grainhumidityatharvest

Observedyieldsince1960inPoitou-Charentes.DatafromFranceAgriMer

Yield


The imprint of climate change in the farming sector Dates of flowering and end of dormancy

Evolution de la période de floraison (F2) de la poire Williams depuis 1962

11-mars

21-mars

31-mars

10-avr

20-avr

30-avr

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

BergeracAngersSt Epain (Tours)

sources: JM.Bore, INRA AngersC.Lavoisier, La MorinièreM.Peschescot, Domaine de Castang

PearWilliams:floweringdates

INRAPhenoclim

AppletreesinAngers(Goldendelicious)floweringdates

AppletreesinNiort:endofdormancy

DatafromCTIFL/INRA

DatafromMeteoFrance/SQR


The imprint of climate change in the farming sector

Phenology –harvest dates

-30 days (earlier by ~1 month) in 50 years

ChâteauneufduPape&Tavel

http://phenoclim.org/fr

Quality

DucheneetSchneider,2004

Sugar-Riesling(Alsace)

SugarLanguedoc:+1°/decadeCôtesduRhône:+0.6°/decadeValdeLoire:+0.5-1°/decadeAlsace:+0.9°/decade

Grapevine


Climate change: the future, at global scale Socio-économicscenarios(demography,societalchoices,technicalprogress)

èdifferenttrajectoriesofglobalwarming

Whateveroursocio-economicchoices,whatwillhappen

duringthistimeperiodisalready‘written’

IPCC,2013


Climate change: the future, at global scale

ClimatechangeiscorrelatedwiththeamountofCO2intheatmosphere

Whenwereachcertainlevelofwarmingdependonthescenario

Neverreached;2050;2040

2100;2065

IPCC,2013



RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP2.6

Theevolutionofclimateextremesisproportionnaltothelevelofwarming

Strongincreaseinthenumberofwarmdays

Strongdecreaseinthenumberofcolddays

10%warmestdaysin1961-1990

10%coldestdaysin1961-1990

IPCC,2013



RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP2.6

Rainfallamountsfrom5consecutiverainydaysincreasewithglobalwarming

Intensityofprecipitationofthe5%rainiestdaysincreaseswithglobalwarming

Theevolutionofclimateextremesisproportionnaltothelevelofwarming

IPCC,2013


Climate change: the future, western Europe

Temperaturechange

Meanseasonalvalues(left)andextremes(right;10%warmest

temperatureperseason)

Summer

Winter


Climate change: the future, western Europe

Rainfallchange

Meanseasonalvalues(left)andextremes(right;5%wettest

eventsperseason)

Summer

Winter


Climate change: the future, France

ScienceetAvenir,Juillet2015,N°821


How can we work together? è Climate Services

All the information and services which allow to: -  estimate and qualify the past, present

and future climate, -  estimate the vulnerability of economic

activities, environment and society to climate change,

-  And supply elements to undertake measures of mitigation and adaptation


An example of climate services: Olympic Games

NASA

ChangesinFebruarytemperaturesince1924Blackdiamonds=olympicgamescities

0.4 °C

3.1 °C

7.8 °C

2014

1960

2000

1924 First 7 O

WG

Meanofmaximumtemperaturein

February,fromallOlympiccities

Scottetal.(2018)



Design of 2 indicators to anticipate future potential

1. Probability that mean daily temperature remain below 0°C 2. Probability that snow depth will remain above 30cm, with

or without snow farming



Scottetal.(2018)


Climate services for Agriculture: the case of corn

ThefutureofCorn

2varieties:Meribel(early)dkc7583(late)

Caubeletal.(2017)



Dates EarlyVariety LateVariety

Changescomparedto1980-2009(days)

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

MidiPyrénéesChangeinsowingdates

earlier12days

earlier21days

earlier30days

earlier12days

earlier21days

earlier30days

MidiPyrénéesChangeinlengthofthegrowingseason[fromemergencetomaturity]

+1day +1day +4days -2days -3days -4days

IledeFranceChangeinsowingdates

earlier6days

Earlier8days

Earlier16days

Doesnotcompleteitsgrowth

cycle


cycle

mid-April

IledeFranceChangeinlengthofthegrowingseason[fromemergencetomaturity]

-8days -15days -19days Doesnotcompleteitsgrowth

cycle


cycle

146days

Caubeletal.(2017)



Frequencyofdays,duringgrainfilling,withmaximumtemperature>35°C

Caubeletal.(2017)



Frequencyofdays,duringgrainfilling,withlowsoilwater

Caubeletal.(2017)


Concluding remarks

•  Climate change –  We’ve already reached +1°C since ~1850 –  Global warming is correlated to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 –  Hot temperature extremes, extreme rainfall events increase with

warming –  Changes over continental areas are larger than global mean

•  Agriculture –  The imprint of climate change is already visible (large-scale

crops, grapes, fruit trees) –  We can build tools to anticipate what will happen è climate

services –  Example of corn:

•  Earlier sowing dates with warming •  It will be possible to grow late season variety in northern France •  But extreme (lethal?) temperatures will be more frequent during grain

filling period •  Number of days with insufficient soil water during grain filling may

double before the end of the 21st century

Documents

Climate change and Agriculture - Sorghum ID...2nd European Sorghum Congress Milano, 7 and 8 November 2018 outline • Our Climate is changing – An unchallenged reality – The role