Vienna23rd June

2009

Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation: the Case of Ireland

John SweeneyJohn Sweeney & Suresh Kumar, ICARUS, NUI Maynooth,& Suresh Kumar, ICARUS, NUI Maynooth,yy , , y ,, , y ,Nick Holden & Tony Brereton, UCDNick Holden & Tony Brereton, UCD

(with acknowledgements to R. Fealy, C. Murphy)(with acknowledgements to R. Fealy, C. Murphy)

NUI MAYNOOTHOllscoil na Éireann Má Nuad

General Conclusions relating to Agriculture from the General Conclusions relating to Agriculture from the IPCC 4th Assessment ReportIPCC 4th Assessment ReportIPCC 4th Assessment ReportIPCC 4th Assessment Report

• Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is likely to have a beneficial effect on crop yields, especially in the mid l tit d i h th f t h t dlatitude regions where other factors such as water and pests/diseases are not limiting.

• In the tropics reduced rainfall is likely to pose serious• In the tropics, reduced rainfall is likely to pose serious threats to agricultural productivity and even small temperature increases will increase vulnerability in thesetemperature increases will increase vulnerability in these areas.

• Changes in agricultural crop productivity will be highlyChanges in agricultural crop productivity will be highly sensitive to changes in drought and floods frequencies. Livestock production in hotter areas is likely to suffer as a result of heat stress on cattle.

Global and Irish mean temperatureGlobal and Irish mean temperatureGlobal and Irish mean temperatureGlobal and Irish mean temperature1.5

1.0

C

0.5

61-1

990)

oC

0.0

nom

aly

(196

-0.5

pera

ture

an

-1.0

Tem

p

-1 5-1.51890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ireland_anomaly 10 year moving average(global) 10 year moving average(Ireland)

Frequency of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ daysFrequency of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ daystt D bli Ai tD bli Ai tat at Dublin AirportDublin Airport

30 25

25

30

20

25

Hot Days Cold Days

15

20

f Day

s

15

f Day

s

Hot Days Cold Days

10

15

No.

of

10No.

of

5 5

‘Hot’ day = mean temperature > 18oC ‘Cold’ day = mean temperature < 0oC

01940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

01940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Hot day = mean temperature > 18oC Cold day = mean temperature < 0oC

The average annual number of hot days in eastern Ireland has doubled, and cold days have halved over the past 40 years

Frequency of ‘frost’ daysFrequency of ‘frost’ daysValentia & BirrValentia & Birr

30

35

70

80

20

25

Day

s 50

60

Day

s

10

15

20

No.

of D

30

40

No.

of D

5

10

10

20

01940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

01955 1965 1975 1985 1995

• Frost Day = minimum temperature < 0oCA typical winter in the south west now has less than half the frosts of 20 years ago

Smaller reductions have occurred in the midlands

G hi l & S l diffG hi l & S l diffGeographical & Seasonal differencesGeographical & Seasonal differencesMalin Head Winter & Roches Point/ Rosslare Summer Precipitationp

350

400(Northwest Ireland)

300

350

(m

m

200

250

atio

n (m

m)

100

150

Prec

ipita

(Southeast Ireland)

0

50

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Malin Hd (djf) Roches Pt (jja) Rosslare (jja)

Winters in the north west are getting wetterSummers in the south east are getting drier

Statistical Downscaling•Involves establishing relationships between mesoscale data, such as upper air observations and local surface observationsobservations.

•The relationship is initially established using present p y g pday observational data, which are then ‘forced’ using GCM output in order to derive climate scenarios for future time-slicesfuture time-slices.

•Transfer functions are derived for point locations for b th t d f t d l th diff iboth current and future model runs; the difference is then applied to the observed data.

•Statistical downscaling assumes that the derived relationships will remain robust enough in a changing climate situationclimate situation

Warming relative to 1961-90

M J fi di dMean January figures are predicted to increase by 1.5oC by mid century with a further increase of 0.5oC-1.0oC by 2075.

By 2050 the extreme south andBy 2050, the extreme south and south west coasts may have a mean January temperature of 8.0oC. By h i i N h I l d dthen, winters in Northern Ireland and

in the north Midlands will be similar to those presently experienced along the Cork/Kerry coast.

July temperatures will increase byJuly temperatures will increase by 2.5oC by 2050 and a further increase of 1.0oC by 2075 can be expected.

fMaximum July temperatures of the order of 22.5oC will prevail generally with areas in the central Midlands experiencing maximum Julytemperatures of 24.5oC.

Rainfall relative to 1961-90

Overall increases in precipitation areOverall increases in precipitation are predicted for the winter months of December- February. On average th t t 11% Th t tthese amount to 11%. The greatest absolute increases are suggested for the north west.

Marked decreases in rainfall during the summer and early autumn ymonths across eastern and central Ireland are predicted. Nationally, these are of the order of 25% withthese are of the order of 25% with decreases of over 40% in some parts of the south-east.

Regional projections which are based on a Regional projections which are based on a single Global Climate Model need to besingle Global Climate Model need to besingle Global Climate Model need to be single Global Climate Model need to be

cautiously interpretedcautiously interpretedy py p

GC f• GCMs handle feedbacks such as clouds and water vapour in slightly different ways

• GCMs ability to simulate current climate varies geographically, often they are best for the region in which they were developed

• GCMs may be effective for some seasons or some climate parameters but less so for others

Multi model downscaling reduces some of the uncertainties associated withMulti model downscaling reduces some of the uncertainties associated with single GCM use.

Global Climate Models used in Global Climate Models used in statistical downscaling for Irish statistical downscaling for Irish

ti t titi t tisynoptic stationssynoptic stations

• HadCM3 UK• CGCM2 Canada• CSIRO Mark 2 Australia• CSIRO Mark 2 Australia

• A2 and B2 SRES Emissions Scenarios

Seasonal weights derived from the CPI score for each Seasonal weights derived from the CPI score for each

f th GCM t d th i ht d blf th GCM t d th i ht d blof the GCMs to produce the weighted ensemble meanof the GCMs to produce the weighted ensemble mean

0.600

0.500

0.400CCCM

0 200

0.300 CSIROHadCM3

0 100

0.200

0.000

0.100

djf mam jja son

SynopticSynoptic Stations used forfor Downscaling

Ensemble mean temperature for the 2050s produced from the weighted Ensemble mean temperature for the 2050s produced from the weighted ensemble of all GCMs and emissions scenarios (bars). Upper and lower ranges ensemble of all GCMs and emissions scenarios (bars). Upper and lower ranges

(li ) h l f h i di id l GCM d i i i(li ) h l f h i di id l GCM d i i i(lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios. (lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios.

Ensemble A2 scenario (Ensemble A2 scenario (■■) and B2 scenario () and B2 scenario (▲▲))

Ensemble mean with GCM and SRES ranges 2050s3 0

(( ) () ( ))

2.5

3.0

2.0

es C

1.5Deg

ree

1.0

0.5

0.0djf mam jja son

Ensemble mean precipitation for the 2050s produced from the weighted Ensemble mean precipitation for the 2050s produced from the weighted ensemble of all GCMs and emissions scenarios (bars). Upper and lower ranges ensemble of all GCMs and emissions scenarios (bars). Upper and lower ranges

(lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios(lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios

Ensemble mean with GCM and SRES ranges 2050s

(lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios. (lines) are the results from the individual GCMs and emissions scenarios. Ensemble A2 scenario (Ensemble A2 scenario (■■) and B2 scenario () and B2 scenario (▲▲).).

Ensemble mean with GCM and SRES ranges 2050s30.0

20.0

10.0

ge

0.0djf mam jja son

% c

hang

20 0

-10.0

-30.0

-20.0

-40.0

30.0

Percent change in simulated monthly StreamflowBoyne Mean EnsembleBoyne Mean Ensemble

2020s

40

2050s

402080s

40

202020

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

ge

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

ge

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

e

-20

% C

han

-20

% C

hang

-20

% C

hang

e

-40-40-40

80

-60-60-60

-80-80

-80

Impacts of Climate Change on Impacts of Climate Change on p gp gIrish AgricultureIrish Agriculture

• Changing crop viability• Changing livestock viability• Changing farm management practices• Changing farm management practices• Regional and national interactionsg

• Land area 6.9M Ha• 4.3M Ha is used

for agriculture

LanduseLandusefor agriculture

• 0.72M Ha for forestry.y

• 80% of agricultural area is devoted to pasture hay andpasture, hay and grass silage (3.4M Ha)

• 11% to rough grazing (0.5M Ha)

• 9% to crop9% to crop production (0.4M Ha).B f d ilk• Beef and milk production currently account yfor 56% of agricultural output at producer prices.at producer prices.

Soil IssuesSoil Issues

• Moisture deficits• Seasonal and

regional ranges insoil moisture deficits

• Site specific soil pmoisture regimes– Tillage and soil g

workability– Soil behaviour

with time of cultivationTrafficability on– Trafficability on grassland soils

– Poaching of soils

Growing Season EfficiencyGrowing Season EfficiencyBirr

• 1961-90 1290 day degrees1961 90 1290 day degrees above 6oC2041 70 1850 d d• 2041-70 1850 day degrees above 6oC

>40% increase in Thermal Growing Season Efficiency

90

6060

mm

30

m

0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

61-90 Precipitation 61-90 PET 2041-70 Precipitation 2041-70 PET

Soil Moisture ChangesSoil Moisture ChangesSoil Moisture ChangesSoil Moisture Changes

• No marked change in time of onset of i d i tspring drying out

• Soils may be saturated while growth hasSoils may be saturated while growth has commenced for several weeks

• Severe late summer soil moisture deficitsSoil moisture deficits persisting about a• Soil moisture deficits persisting about a month later than today in the autumny

Models used for Agricultural Models used for Agricultural ggImpact AssessmentImpact Assessment

• Johnstown Castle Grass Model (pasture)• Decision Support System for Agricultural

Technology Transfer (DSSAT 3 5)Technology Transfer (DSSAT 3.5)– CERES (Barley)– CERES (Maize)– SUBSTOR (Potato)– SUBSTOR (Potato)– CROPGRO (Soybean)

Soil Parameters used in the DSSAT ModelSALB Albedo, fraction SLCL Clay (<0.002 mm), % SBDM Bulk density moist g cm-3 SLDR Drainage rate fraction day-1SBDM Bulk density, moist, g cm SLDR Drainage rate, fraction day SCEC Cation exchange capacity,

cmol kg-1 SLHB pH in buffer

l ll hSCOM Color, moist, Munsell hue SLHW pH in waterSDUL Upper limit, drained, cm3 cm-3 SLLL Lower limit, cm3 cm-3 SLB Depth, base of layer, cm SLNF Mineralization factor, 0 to 1 scale S ept , base o aye , c S e a at o acto , 0 to sca eSLCF Coarse fraction (>2 mm), % SLNI Total nitrogen, % SLOC Organic carbon, % SLRO Runoff curve no. (Soil

Conservation Service)Conservation Service)SLSI Silt (0.05 to 0.002 mm), % SLU1 Evaporation limit, mm SMHB pH in buffer determination SMKE Potassium determination method,

method, code codeSMPX Phosphorus determination

codeSNH4 Ammonium, KCl, g elemental N

Mg-1 soilcode Mg soilSNO3 Nitrate, KCl, g elemental N Mg-

1 soil SRGF Root growth factor, soil only, 0.0

to 1.0 SSAT U li it t t d 3 - SSKS S t h d li d ti itSSAT Upper limit, saturated, cm3 cm

3 SSKS Sat. hydraulic conductivity,

macropore, cm h-1

Maize Spring Barley Potato

Details of the Five Crops Being SimulatedMaize Cultivar: Short season Planting: Seed, DOY75;

2

Spring BarleyCultivar: High Lat. Spring Planting: Seed,DOY75,

2

PotatoCultivar: Desiree Planting: Seed, DOY 75;

27.1 seeds m-2, rows 50cm apart, depth 4cm Fertiliser: 200 kg N ha-1 in

225 seeds m-2, rows 15cm apart, depth 2cmFertiliser: 50 kg N ha-1 in

5.1 seeds m-2, rows 86cm apart, depth 20cm, sprout 8cm g

three equal applications DOY 65, 125 and 155. Harvest date: at maturity

gtwo equal applications, DOY 65 and DOY105. Harvest date: at maturity

p , pFertiliser: 200 kg N ha-1 in two equal applications DOY 65 and DOY 145Harvest date: at maturity Harvest date: at maturity DOY 65 and DOY 145. Harvest date: DOY 315

Pasture C l i

Soybean C l i G 000

Cultivar: Permanent pasture (Perennial ryegrass dominant)

Cultivar: Group 000Planting: Seed, DOY75, 21.5 seeds m-2, )

Planting: Simulation started DOY315 Fertiliser: 500 kg N ha-1 in

,rows 91cm apart,depth 4cm Fertiliser: None Harvest date: at maturityFertiliser: 500 kg N ha in

monthly applications fromDOY35 H t d t Fi t h t

Harvest date: at maturity

Harvest date: First harvest DOY75and at 28 day intervals subsequently

Modelling AssumptionsModelling AssumptionsModelling AssumptionsModelling Assumptions

• Increase in CO2 to 581ppm by 2055All f i d th t d t• Allowance for increased growth rates due to enhanced CO2 (1.05-1.2 for barley, 1.02-1.08 for potato)

• No pest/disease effectsNo pest/disease effects• No limitations in field access or planting dates• Dominant soil type at each location used• Models: Decision Support System forModels: Decision Support System for

Agricultural Technology Transfer (DSSAT)

Barley yield in Ireland under baseline (1961–1990) climate, and the change for the 2041–2070 and 2061–2090 scenarios

Main areas of barley (A) and potato (B) as a percentage of area Main areas of barley (A) and potato (B) as a percentage of area farmed The eight sites here each crop is most commonl gro n arefarmed The eight sites here each crop is most commonl gro n arefarmed. The eight sites where each crop is most commonly grown are farmed. The eight sites where each crop is most commonly grown are

labelled.labelled.

Site 1 Site 2

678910

678910 Non-irrigated, barley

yield (t ha-1) nitrogen (kg ha-1) response

0123456

0 50 100 1500123456

0 50 100 150

(kg ha ) response curves for eight sites with high rates of spring barley production0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150

Site 3 Site 4

78910

78910

barley production [baseline ( ) and 2055 ( )].

1234567

1234567

Baseline

2055

00 50 100 150

00 50 100 150

Site 5 Site 6

8910

8910t h

a-1

Similar yields for baseline and future

2345678

2345678 baseline and future

climates irrespective of higher fertiliser inputs. Drier sites have the

01

0 50 100 150 01

0 50 100 150 Site 7 Site 8

10 10

Drier sites have the lowest yields.

Conclusion: Fertiliser

3456789

3456789

Conclusion: Fertiliser input reductions may not decrease yields as climate changes

012

0 50 100 150 012

0 50 100 150 Kg N ha-1

climate changes

12

8 Irrigated

4 Non-irrigated

t ha-

1

4 Non irrigated

00 25 50 75 100 125

Nitrogen rate (kg ha -1)

The nitrogen response with and without irrigation for: barley averaged over theThe nitrogen response with and without irrigation for: barley averaged over the eight sites where the crops are most commonly grown. [Baseline = black. 2055 = grey.]

Yields insensitive to nitrogen application rates. Conclusion: With some irrigation, yields can be maintained with significantly lower fertiliser inputs.

Potato yield in Ireland under baseline climate, and the change for the 2041–2070 and 2061–2090 scenarios

Site 1 Site 2

678910

678910 Non-irrigated, potato

yield (t ha-1)

0123456

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

M

0123456

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

nitrogen (kg ha-1) response curves for eight sites with high

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Site 3 Site 4

78910

78910

g grates of potato production [baseline ( ) and 2055 ( )].

0123456

0123456

( ) and 2055 ( )].

Baseline00 50 100 150 200 250 300

00 50 100 150 200 250 300

Site 5 Site 6

8910

8910t h

a-1 2055

1234567

1234567

Little change at wetter western sites marked

00 50 100 150 200 250 300

00 50 100 150 200 250 300

Site 7 Site 8

910

910

sites, marked decline at drier eastern sites.

2345678

2345678

Conclusion: Gains from extra CO2 are negated by

01

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 01

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Kg N ha-1

are negated by drier conditions

20

15

10Irrigated

t ha-

1

5

00 50 100 150 200Non-irrigated

Nitrogen rate (kg ha -1)

The nitrogen response with and without irrigation for potato averaged over the eight sites where the crops are most commonly grown. [Baseline = black. 2055 = grey.]sites where the crops are most commonly grown. [Baseline black. 2055 grey.]

Marked response to irrigation. Some response also to increased Nitrogen input. Conclusion: Potato yields will fall as summers dry Irrigation is the best option to redressConclusion: Potato yields will fall as summers dry. Irrigation is the best option to redress this, though increased fertiliser inputs may also help.

Adaptation lessonsAdaptation lessonsAdaptation lessonsAdaptation lessons• Water stress avoidance will enable reductions in fertiliser

use for key crops. Application rates could be halved by 2055 F t b l i ld ill i i th2055. For most areas, barley yields will increase in the medium term, even without irrigation.

• Potato growing areas in Donegal and Cork will only bePotato growing areas in Donegal and Cork will only be able to maintain yields in the absence of irrigation by increasing fertiliser inputs to high levels. Wexford and th d i SE i i l it d t t tthe drier SE appears increasingly unsuited to potato cultivation. Even with 310mm of irrigation in the north Co. Dublin area soil conditions will limit yieldsCo. Dublin area soil conditions will limit yields considerably.

• Infrastructure to store winter rainfall will be needed in f th SE h i i ti i fit blareas of the SE where irrigation is profitable.

Adaptation lessonsAdaptation lessons• Summer soil moisture deficits pose the greatest threat for future

Irish agricultural production, especially in western parts

• Where water is available and needed, substantial reductions in fertiliser use can be achieved

• Where water is unavailable and needed, yields may be partially maintained by increased fertiliser application

Modelling Livestock Agricultural Systems

Grass yield in Ireland: winter and summer relative change withy gthe 2055 scenario. Black: <25%; red: 25 to 100%; blue: 100 to200%; yellow 200 – 300% and white >300%

Sequence of events during dairy system simulation in Dairy_sim

Inputs to Dairy simInputs to Dairy simInputs to Dairy simInputs to Dairy sim

• Farm location (climate: synoptic weather stations)stations)

• Farm layout (sub divided into paddocks by y ( p ythe user)

• Herd data (stocking rate lactation yield• Herd data (stocking rate, lactation yield, live weight post calving, daily feed d d)demand)

• Farm management (fertiliser, silageFarm management (fertiliser, silage management)

Dairy sim was parameterised using the NDB system

Location: Fermoy, Ireland Total Nitrogen applied: 360 kg N ha-1

Paddocks: 20 Area of farm used for 1st cut silage: 9 ha

Farm area: 20 ha Area of farm used for 2nd cut silage: 7 ha

Closing Date: 26 November Date of closing for 1st silage cut: 1 AprilClosing Date: 26 November Date of closing for 1 silage cut: 1 April

Stocking rate: 2.6 cow ha-1 Date of closing for 2nd silage cut: 28 May 1 1Milk yield: 6400 l cow-1 yr-1 Date of cut 1: 27 May

Live weight: 610 kg Date of cut 2: 15 July

The National Dairy Production Blueprint (NDB) as described by O’Donovan (2000) as the basis for dairy unit rotational grazing management in Ireland

NDB Dairy_sim

Comparison of calibrated Dairy_sim system with NDB

Number of paddocks 20 20

Turnout Early March 29 February

Close mid-late November 26 NovemberClose mid late November 26 November

Winter 100 days 98 days

Close for first silage cut 1 April 1sApril

Date first-cut silage 28 May 28 May

Proportion of area for 1st cut silage 0.45 (variable) 0.45

Date Second-cut silage 15 July 15 JulyDate Second-cut silage 15 July 15 July

Proportion of area for 2nd cut silage 0.35 0.35

Concentrate (kg cow-1) 500 543

Milk (l cow-1) 6359 6400

Silage (t DM cow-1) 1.4 1.53

13 (non irrigated)Total Herbage production (DM t ha-1) 12-15

13 (non-irrigated) 15.8 (irrigated)

Silage yield (DM t ha-1-) 5.4 4.8

Silage fed housed (kg DMcow-1) ------ 1400

Silage supplement at pasture(kg DM cow-1) ------ 205

Nitrogen (mineral+organic)(kg N ha-1) 360 360

Concentrates*

( 1)

Grazed herbage

1st Silage cut

2nd Silage cut

Silage fed**

(kg DMSilage stored (t

System( t cow-1) herbage

(t DM ha-1)cut

(t DM ha-1)cut

(t DM ha-1)(kg DM

cow-1day-1)stored (t DM cow-1)

Li i dObserved 0.6 5.8 7.2 3.8 10-12 1.8

Limited Simulated 0.5 6.4 8.7 - 11 1.7

ExtensiveObserved 0.6 6.8 7.1 4.7 10-12 1.4

Simulated 0.5 7.3 7.4 4.5 11 1.5

Observed 0.6 7.7 7.2 5.0 10-12 1.2Moderate Simulated 0.6 8.3 7.7 4.3 12 1.3

IntensiveObserved 0.6 9.6 7.3 4.8 10-12 1.5

Simulated 0.6 8.1 7.5 4.3 13 1.5

* Concentrates fed within each of the separate grazing systems were not determined at the farm. The value reported is the average across all 4 systems.** The exact silage fed within each treatment was not recorded, but the range of feed rates for the whole farm was estimated by the

Observed and simulated feed and grass results for the 4 systems tested at Solohead farm

g , g yfarm manager

Dairy simDairy simDairy simDairy sim

• Run for 5 locations (30 year simulation) t ti f li t i i I l drepresentative of climate regions in Ireland

• Adjusted to obtain a neutral silage balanceAdjusted to obtain a neutral silage balance and minimum days of winter housing

Location: Fermoy Claremoris Clones Kilkenny RosslareLocation: Fermoy Claremoris Clones Kilkenny Rosslare

St ki t ( h -1) 2 6 2 5 2 45 2 35 2 6Stocking rate (cows ha-1): 2.6 2.5 2.45 2.35 2.6

Area of 1st cut silage (ha): 9 7 8 9 10g ( )

Area of 2nd cut silage (ha): 7 9 8 7 0

Housing (days): 98 93 90 80 72

Silage deficit (years in 10): 4.3 4.3 5 4.3 3

Modification of strategic management parameters (compared to the NDB devised at Fermoy) necessary to achieve an optimum production system at various regionalFermoy) necessary to achieve an optimum production system at various regional locations in Ireland on a 20 ha farm

Bringing in the CO2 Bringing in the CO2 g gg genhancement effectenhancement effect

Mean National Grass Herbage Production with 28 Day Regrowths

16000.0

14000.0

10000.0

12000.0

(kg

DM

ha-

1)

8000.0

rass

Her

bage

(

baseline2055a2055b2055c

4000.0

6000.0

Cum

ulat

ive

Gr

2000.0

0.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

28-Day Interval

National average of cumulative 28-day regrowths in baseline years and 2050. Average based on simulations at 5 locations with (a) no CO2 response; (b) uniform 20% increase in growth with elevated CO2; and (c) fractional CO2 responsein growth with elevated CO2; and (c) fractional CO2 response.

Bringing in the soil Bringing in the soil g gg glimitationslimitations

Baseline 2020 2050

Drainage Stress Excess Total Stress Excess Total Stress Excess Total

Well 97 0 97 100 0 100 123 0 123

Moderate 68 0 68 82 0 82 116 0 116Moderate 68 0 68 82 0 82 116 0 116

Poor 68 221 289 118 208 290 116 196 312

Soil limitation (in days per year) due to water stress, water excess and total on grass growth (80th percentile value shown)grass growth (80th percentile value shown)

Baseline 2020 2050Drainage Day Duration Day Duration Day Duration

Field access for grazingField access for grazing

Well 1 365 1 365 1 365Well 1 365 1 365 1 365

Moderate 1 365 1 365 1 365

Poor 134 142 130 154 123 164Poor 134 142 130 154 123 164

Field access for machinery

Well 148 109 140 133 130 149

Moderate 148 109 140 133 130 149Moderate 148 109 140 133 130 149

Poor 156 112 143 135 137 147

D f d d f il bl fi ld f i d hi (80thDay of year and days of available field access for grazing and machine access (80th percentile value shown)

Stockingrate (cow

s/far

1st cut paddocks

2nd cut paddocks

Total DM

(t/farm)

Grazed D

(t/farm)

Main sila

DM

(t/fa

Baled sil

DM

(t/fa

Housing

days (/f a

Silage excess D(t/farm

)

Change ing rm)

s s M DM age

arm)

lage arm

)

arm)

DM

Malin Head

MIN 10 0 2 63 37 13 0 16 2

Change in system properties betweenMIN 10 0 -2 63 37 13 0 -16 -2

MAX 17 1 2 88 64 50 3 20 9

MEAN 13 0 0 75 47 28 1 2 5

between baseline and 2050

ST DEV 2 0 1 8 7 11 1 9 4

Birr

MIN 13 0 -2 58 38 4 0 -1 -12

recommended for optimum adaptation to

MAX 18 1 0 91 55 39 6 3 7

MEAN 15 0 -1 69 49 18 2 1 -2

ST DEV 2 0 1 11 5 12 2 2 7

pclimate changes

Valentia

MIN 11 -1 -3 61 39 6 1 -15 -9

MAX 18 1 2 76 59 29 12 11 9MAX 18 1 2 76 59 29 12 11 9

MEAN 15 0 0 70 47 17 6 -2 1

ST DEV 2 1 2 4 8 7 4 9 7

Kilkenny

MIN 13 0 -2 59 35 12 0 -8 -6

MAX 16 1 1 75 58 25 10 9 5

MEAN 15 0 -1 68 47 18 3 4 -3

ST DEV 1 1 1 6 7 5 3 6 3

Climate Change and Agriculture in IrelandClimate Change and Agriculture in Ireland• In east Leinster and east Ulster

water stress in grass, barley, t t d t l t t

• In the extreme northwest cool temperatures and relatively wetpotato and to a lesser extent

maize will occur on a much increased frequency. Summer

temperatures and relatively wet conditions will produce lower grass, maize and soybean yields, b t d b l d t t i ld

q ysoil moisture deficits will be problematical for dairying, losses from which may be partially

but good barley and potato yields. On poorly drained soils agriculture will be slightly more productive y p y

compensated by reductions in fertiliser inputs. Late summer feed deficits may require

than at present. Dairying will not be heavily impacted.

• In south and south west Munsterfeed deficits may require supplementation or the introduction of a mid season housing period

In south and south west Munster warm temperatures and relatively moist conditions will lead to good grass barley and maize yields andhousing period.

• In the midlands less stresses are apparent in summer and good i ld f b l i

grass, barley and maize yields and provide potential for new crops such as soybean. Potato yield is limited The relative advantages ofyields of grass, barley, maize,

potato and, later in the century, soybean can be expected. Scope

limited. The relative advantages of this region for dairying will be maintained though summer d ht ill b

y p pfor reduced fertiliser inputs will be greater in areas of poorly drained soils.

droughts will become more common than at present.

• Adaptation to climate change for Irish p gagriculture will centre either on maximising outputs or minimising inputs Generally theoutputs or minimising inputs. Generally the potential for considerable reduction in nitrogen application rates will occur.

• For the key dairying sector a range of• For the key dairying sector, a range of response options exists which should mean

f fthe continuing viability and profitability of this sector.

In ConclusionIn ConclusionIn ConclusionIn Conclusion• Irish agriculture will be capable of adapting to g p p g

climate change and most of the current crops will remain viable.will remain viable.

• Extensification will be facilitated by climate h ichange in many areas.

• Summer water will become the determinant ofSummer water will become the determinant of productivity. But who else will be looking for water in the summers of mid century?water in the summers of mid century?

• Changed occurrences of pests/diseases may g yalter conclusions significantly