E ploring Perceptions OfExploringPerceptionsOfClimate ChangeAndClimateChangeAnd

Migrationg

HimaniUpadhyayEarthScienceandClimateChangeDivision

TERI17thDecember2013

“Far from changes in the physical climates d h i h Cli Chand change in weather‐ Climate Change 

has become an idea that travels beyond its origin in natural science, meeting world politics, economics, popular culture,politics, economics, popular culture, religion –often through the interposing role of the media takes new meanings androle of the media‐takes new meanings and serves new purposes” ( k l )(Mike Hulme, 2007)

Climate Change and Migration: Developing a Future Research Agenda

• One year Scoping Study• TERI—CICERO collaboration• Supported by Research Council of Norway (RCN) under the INDNOR program 

• Objectives: • To conduct a scoping and planning exercise which can provide a• To conduct a scoping and planning exercise which can provide aplatform for operationalzing the learning's in the future

• To do the groundwork for framing a future research agenda onclimate change and migration, by highlighting the gaps in currentknowledge and outlining the conceptual issues

Framework

SATI

ON

Definitions/ Terminologies

Data Collection Challenges

Methodological Approaches

NC

EPTU

LIS Terminologies

Implications

Challenges Approaches

Drivers Thresholds Types

CO

N

Climate Change Migration

Social Economic Status Physical O

N

Structure and Livelihoods

Environmental

yAttributes

CulturalPolicyEXU

LISA

TIO

EnvironmentalEffects

Cultural Elements

Policy Challenges

CO

NTE

Learning's• Quantitative Dimensions: Estimates and data issues

• Numbers??• Estimates range from 200 million (Meyers 2005) to 1 billion (Christain Aid, g ( y ) ( ,2007)

• Lambart (2002) has estimated that there will be 20 million people displaced by climate change in China

• IOM predicts upto 1 billion migrants in next 40 years (IOM , 2011)• Disagreement on the figures

• Invalid– based on conjecture and worst case scenario (Raleigh and Jordan ,Invalid based on conjecture and worst case scenario (Raleigh and Jordan , 2010)

• Anecdotal (Castle, 2002; Hugo, 2009)• Lack of empirical evidence and huge variations in numbersLack of empirical evidence and huge variations in numbers

• uncertain of climate change scenarios• unsure of climate change hazards • unsure of how these changes and hazards will effect people on ground• unsure of how these changes and hazards will effect people on ground

• Numbers are distracting , misleading, cause‐effect based and likely inaccurate 

ORMaybe correct?

Dataandmethodologicalchallenges

• Lack of data• Diluted and doubtful numbers for climate change related migrationg

• Lack of understanding on behalf of the institutions and agencies responsible for census dataand agencies responsible for census data collection

• Challenging to identify and collect data on these• Challenging to identify and collect data on these issues as there are no variables which directly represent such a processrepresent such a process

• Conceptualisation in Science and Policy• Conceptualisation in Science and Policy• Adaptation or the failure to adapt• How is climate change emerging as a new driver• Framings in time and space

• permanent, long‐term temporary, transitional, seasonal• internal, trans‐boundary at different boundary scales, y yrural/urban, coastal/inland

Multiplier effect of climate change on existing pull and push factors of migration.

• Contextualization in Science and Policy• Framing of migration decisionsg g• Migration choices• Impacts from and on migration• Impacts from and on migration• What processes shape and are impacted by 

i timigration• Physical, economic, social, political, legal

Perceptionsandunderstandingsofclimatechange andmigration: Conceptualising andchangeandmigration: ConceptualisingandcontextualisingforLakshadweepandthe

M ldiMaldives

• Phase II‐‐ by RCN (under INDNOR)• 2012 ‐‐ 2015• Consortium Partners:

• University College of London (UK)• University of Manchester (UK)• University of Reading (UK)• Centre for Earth Research and Environment Management (India)

• GRID‐Arendal (Norway)

ResearchQuestions• To what extent and in what ways is climate change isunderstood (scientifically, policy wise, and from people’sperspecti es) to be an additional dri er for alread e istingperspectives) to be an additional driver for already existingmigration behaviour? How is it understood (scientifically,policy wise, and from people’s perspectives) to induce new

d ?trends?• What are people’s perceptions of climate change andresponses (including migration) especially those which top‐responses (including migration), especially those which topdown views are generally not aware of? (That is, collectinglife histories, day‐to‐day stories, narratives). Differences inperceptions for those on the frontlines compared toperceptions for those on the frontlines compared topolicy/decision makers.

• What is heterogeneous and what is homogeneous aboutthe migration and climate change backgrounds andexperiences of the people in the case studies?

• What are the policy implications and why? How should itWhat are the policy implications and why? How should itbe contextualised for location?

Methodology• Key informant interviews in preliminary visit • 200 HHS in each island‐‐ so total of 800 HHS –200 HHS in each island so total of 800 HHS QUANTITATIVE 

• 40 one to one interviwes in each island – total of 160  Participatorydinterviews –QUALITATIVE

• Targeting local people (women representation), NGOs and policy makers

data

and policy makers• Collecting demographic data, environmental data, climate data , socio‐economic data, documents,climate data , socio economic data, documents, policies, and practices from the communities including laws (customary or recorded), reports from l l NGO

Non‐Participatory 

d tlocal NGOs data

Phase 1 Of Field Work

ContdContd.• Presenting preliminary academic analyses and interpretationsPresenting preliminary academic analyses and interpretations to the local partners to triangulate those results with the local partners’ understanding. 

• Identify need for further focussed groups and interviews• Ensuring that the local partners have what they need to apply th l f th kthe lessons from the work

• Translating the final results into local languages (Malyalam and Divehi)Divehi)

Phase 2 Of Field Work

Project’soriginalcontribution

• Theory: Deeper conceptualisation. Deeper contextualisation. Does not assume that people respond linearly

• Empirical:p Case studies: individually and comparison. Method for field protocolMethod for field protocol.

• Theory  Practice Exploring the CC and migration narrative with Exploring the CC  and migration narrative with 

ground perspectives and empirical evidence Suggests new perspectives for policy andSuggests new perspectives for policy and 

implementation.

CASE STUDY SITES

Lakshadweep• Is an archipelago of 36 islands ‐‐ total 32sq km in area‐‐10 inhabited islands ‐‐majority of the indigenous population is M liMuslim

• Kavaratti – capital of Lakshadweep, high floating population• Despite various influences traditional subsistence lifestyle is• Despite various influences traditional subsistence lifestyle is reliant on copra and fishing is the mainstay

• Economic opportunities in the mainland do not attract ppmajority of the population

• Ground water ‐‐used for drinking‐‐ is a major concernd l l d• Limited tourism: Local people are pro tourist and tourism

• Resort owners have taken government to court over tendering issues for permitp

• Cost of living is high as food and other important utilities are imported from the mainland

Contd.• Increased temperature,  erratic rains, increased dry spells, changes in sea surface temperature, increased night sea temperature increased erosion sea level risenight sea temperature, increased erosion, sea‐ level rise (50‐50)• People relate to these changes more after the tsunami of 2004

• Corals have degraded• Decreased fish catch famous for tuna which survives on• Decreased fish catch – famous for tuna which survives on bait fishes living in corals

• Climate change or rising sea level and risk of being g g ginundated is not a major concern• Sinking of islands – not a reality at presentCli h i d d lif• Climate change is not a day to day life concern

• If there was a concern—there would be community discussion about it

Maldives• Chain of 26 atolls ‐ ‐Muslim dominated population–tourism is the mainstay

• K. Guraidhoo‐ adjoining to a tourist resort island• Climate Change is not shaping peoples everyday lives and livelihood strategies – not a concern • People are aware and not ignorantHi f fli i h h i• History of conflict with the tourist sector• Environment taking the collateral damage is major concern

• Programs for climate change awareness have been• Programs for climate change awareness have been initiated by the government

• Development aid to the Maldives has decreased but• Development aid to the Maldives has decreased, but support for climate change work has increased.• Political élite potentially see climate change as a way to keep aid p y g y pcoming in and are willing to exploit that

People’sperceptions• People are aware of climate change and its impacts• Believe that “nothing will happen to their island” and if does sink , “they will sink with it” but “do not wish to migrate or eventhey will sink with it  but  do not wish to migrate or even considered to be relocated”• Possibility of literal sinking of the island due to the buildings being so heavy (Maldives) or construction activities (Lakshadweep)

While environmentally motivated migration poses a challenge the issue heavy (Maldives), or construction activities (Lakshadweep)

• People have a strong preference for a simple and relaxed lifestyle• “everyone prefers it here”I f ki hi i h i d i l d l i

raised by people unable /unwilling to leave dangerous/risky circumstances / regions “ b ll i ifi ” (UK• Importance of kinship, community cohesion and island culture is part 

of day to day lives • Can survive with little money

“maybe more or equally significant” (UK Foresight, 2011)

• Religious teachings since childhood have inculcated a loyalty to motherland

• Place attachment, belonging and place identity is over and abovePlace attachment, belonging  and place identity is over and above the risk  from climate change and hazards

• If they have to migrate or are relocated by the government• Preference for Kerala due to similar language culture close to sea• Preference for Kerala‐ due to similar language, culture, close to sea

• Mixed views on migration for survival 

Migratingtoadapt?• Question of survival – can lead to migration • Migration as an adaptation to climate change can be constrained by:

• Variations in risk perceptions• Distant nature of climate change• Failure to link current experiences with future events• Failure to link current experiences with future events

• Migration may ostensibly be adaptation, but cannot be considered successful:• damage to people’s traditions, knowledge, social orders, identities, and material cultures (Adger et al., 2011)

• If adaptation constrains people’s legitimate right to development , then p p p g g p ,it cannot be considered successful (Barnett, 2005)

• A decision to move or stay is specific to specific people (household) , societies and environment systemssocieties and environment systems 

• Place identity‐ careful consideration, and inclusion of person‐place bonds can facilitate planning and policy development that is 

i l l ( d i )appropriate to local context (Baxter and Armitage, 2012)

Echoingthesamevoice• Tuvalu‐ popularly projected as first climate refugees

• Disagree with their media constructed status• Do not consider their islands as disappearing or communities in crisis• Value their local lifestyle, culture and community cohesion on the island  (Mortreux & Barnett 2009 and Farbotko & Lazrus 2012)(Mortreux & Barnett , 2009 and Farbotko & Lazrus, 2012)

• Example – New Zelands’ pacific access category of migrants

• Shishmaref, Alaska: lack of understanding the colonial historyShishmaref, Alaska:  lack of understanding the colonial history and lack of local representation in decision making (Marino, 2012)

• Kirbati –People value stability associated with remaining in one community may experience deterioration in quality in life if they are forced to relocate as a an adaptation to CC impacts (Agyeman et al., 2009) • “Emigration is stage when you know you are loosing the battle we are• “Emigration is stage when you know you are loosing the battle, we are nowhere near that” (cited in Pearce, 2000)

Howdoweaccountforlossofcommunitycohesion importance of local culturecohesion,importanceoflocalculture

valuesandplaceidentity• How do we measure loss and damage to things that are socially constructedHow do we measure loss and damage to things that are socially constructed

• What about social impacts?• Loss of culture, place, community values

• Cannot be monetized or assigned quantitative values• Cannot be monetized or assigned quantitative values• Economic metrics used widely is not applicable here• Loss of house vs loss of homeS t l t ti th• So can money payments ever come close to compensating these losses?

• If it is difficult to compensate loss of place , culture and values then should decision making proceed on rights preca tion ? ill it create nedecision making proceed on rights , precaution ? – will it create new problems

• What will be the modes of delivery and distribution ?• Impact of aid on recipient community• Impact of aid on recipient community

• Loss is distributed unequally just as vulnerability is differentially constructed

• Purpose to restore minimum self sufficiency Vs replacement of losses• Purpose to restore minimum self sufficiency Vs replacement of losses ‐‐Need versus loss debate 

MigrantVs Refugeesg g• Migrant should be understood as "covering all cases where the decision toMigrant should be understood as  covering all cases where the decision to migrate is taken freely by the individual concerned, for reasons of 'personal convenience' and without intervention of an external compelling facto. (UN Convention on the Rights of Migrants )Convention on the Rights of Migrants )

• Refugees : people with “a well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it” (1951 United Nations Convention on Refugees and its 1967 Amendment ,UNHCR, 2006).1967 Amendment ,UNHCR, 2006). 

• A migrant could be anyone relocating voluntarily or otherwise within his own country. 

• A migrant is called a refugee when he is forced to seek refuge and his movement is characterized by a cross border movement