• Climate Change Adaptation – Technology application and case studies

• Disaster Management in Taiwan – with risk planning and management

• Disaster / Risk • Natural Disasters

– Identification / Analysis / Management

• Climate Change Adaptation• Water Sector as an example

https://goo.gl/4UevNA

http://www.ilovebicycling.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/fix-flat-tire.jpg

http://bangkok.coconuts.co/sites/bangkok.coconuts.co/files/styles/article_header/public/field/image/fire1_0.jpg

http://blogs.c.yimg.jp/res/blog-d6-1e/yuji873/folder/55307/61/29692661/img_3?1425106567

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7042/6778980460_b5e8847a80_b.jpg

May 2009https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com /2014/11/ap1801010487.jpg?quality=80&str ip=all&w =640

Scale/ Loss of Functionality/Social impact

Global, Individual Local Gov. Central Gov. National Gov. International

Frequency

Spatial extent Prolonging time Damage

– A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources

– Wikipedia

http://nextnature.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nextnature_disaster_530.jpghttp://www.anamericaninibiza.com/images/tornado3.jpghttp://sunriseorphanage.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/leyte-disaster-06-185.jpghttp://www.itsnature.org/Photos/images/large/disaster5.jpg http://www.traveltails.com/images/beer_disaster.jpghttp://www.entertainmentwallpaper.com/images/desktops/movie/disaster_movie02.jpghttp://moneyradio.org/images/disaster.jpg

http://www.unescap.org/unis/com m on/images/press/disaster.jpg

http://www.disasterawarenesshelp.com/wp-content/uploads/18_6_orig.jpg http://www.alon.tw/image/creative/transformer.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RISSBcGWLr8/VQl28wCW7eI/AAAAAAAAA0s/hSDHinVXCZc/s1600/Ant%2Bcartoon.jpg

http://img14.deviantart.net/3e0b/i/2013/206/b/3/game_of_bones_king_snoopy_of_king_s_landing_by_ccovillar-d6f7p7o.jpg

http://www.novosolutions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/disaster_preparedness.gif

Risk Management(Protection)

Crisis Management(Recovery)

mitigation

response

monitoring

warningpreparedness

recovery

reconstruction

Impactassessment

disaster

http://grwconsultants.com /images/bcp_disaster_wallpaper-01_6v9k.jpg 17

•– Reactive– Less coordination– Low

efficiency/effectiveness– High loss/damage

•– Proactive– Monitoring/Warning– Well-Preparation

18

• Define Risk– Hazard– Exposure– Vulnerability

• Risk Analysis– Loss estimation– Risk Map

http://www.matrixsafety.com.au/content_images/1/RiskManagement.jpg

• Risk is potential of losing something of value. – Values (such as physical health, social status, emotional

well-being or financial wealth) can be gained or lost when taking risk resulting from a given action or inaction, foreseen or unforeseen.

• Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty. – Uncertainty is a potential, unpredictable, unmeasurable

and uncontrollable outcome;

• Risk is a consequence of action taken in spite of uncertainty.

Negative eventsØMan-induced: Fire, chemical, terrorismØ Natural: Hurricane, earthquake, flood, droughtØ Societal: Public health/safety, information/cyber

Probable eventsØMay/may not occurrence Ø Linked with occurrence probabilityüUncertaintyüFuture time span

21

Ø Probability of single event occurrencen Airplane crash probability is about 1 to 5,074,091n The death rate for lung cancer

Ø The consequence of an eventn The number of casualty in a earthquake with

scale of 9.0

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophyhttp://plato.stanford.edu/entries/risk/

"Pacific typhoon tracks 1980-2005" by Nilfanion via Wikimedia Commons (Public Domain)）

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7372263

http://gis.geo.ncu.edu.tw/921/teach/b5-1.jpg

http://web.fg.tp.edu.tw/~earth/learn/esf/magazine/images/970303f7.gif

24

• Repeated occurrence at the same place– Geological: Earthquake/Landslide– Meteorological: flood/drought/ tornado

• Damages may be recovered– In relative short period– May be damaged as the next event hit

http://images.pearsoned-ema.com/jpeg/large/9780132318648.jpg

Risk is effect of uncertainty on objectives

• coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk

• process of finding, recognizing and describing risks– involves the identification of risk sources, events, their

causes and their potential consequences. – can involve historical data, theoretical analysis,

informed and expert opinions, and stakeholder's needs.

– structured statement of risk usually containing four elements: sources, events, causes and consequences

• Process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk– Risk analysis provides the basis for risk evaluation

and decisions about risk treatment– Risk analysis includes risk estimation

• Hazard – source of potential harm

• Vulnerability– intrinsic properties of something resulting in susceptibility

to a risk source that can lead to an event with a consequence

• Exposure– extent to which an organization and/or stakeholder is

subject to an event • Consequence

– outcome of an event affecting objectives • May be certain/uncertain ; positive/negative, qualitative/

quantitative. • Resilience

– adaptive capacity of an organization in a complex and changing environment

30

• Natural hazards – hurricane, earthquake, landslide, flood, drought,

tornado, frozen, heat…….

• Technological hazards – Industrial, chemical/poison, fire, food, cyber

information ……

• Societal hazards – War, epidemic, violence, terrorism, arson ….

1.Hazard potential

31

2.Exposure

3.Vulnerability

4.Resilience

Natural Hazard

Risk

32

• Hazard (Potential)– Environmental factors– Triggering events

• Exposure– Population– Physical (building/infrastructure)– Services/Functions

• Vulnerability– Severity– Receptors (Category, Resilience, Preparation)– Adaption (social vulnerability)

• Risk– Integrate all above with probability concepts

33

http://www.freefoto.com/images/21/11/21_11_79---Country-Road--B3081--Dorset-_web.jpg

http://wfn.typepad.com/.a/6a0105364cdc73970c010536c9be59970b-800wi

http://www.bl.uk/learning/images/medieval/patterns/Pattern%2010-%20motorway%20l.jpg

Hazard is the inherent properties of a substance, object or activity with a potential for adverse, or harmful, effects to occur.

1.Hazard

2.Exposure

3.Vulnerability

4.Resilience

34

35http://frigg.ivt.ntnu.no/ross/slides/basic-risk.pdf

Hazard/Exposure Trigger event Vulnerability/Damage

36

http://ww w.azote.se/repository/temp/f6e9e3e6h6b9h9e3b3f33f36h6f6f3b3e6f3b3h6f6e3h3h6b3b9/largew/jlb00551.jpg

http://i.eh ow.com /im ages/G lobalP h oto/Ar ticles/2 25 47 80/ j0 4 066 9 7- m a in _F ull.jpg

Exposure is a quantitative measurement of the extent to which a given hazard is present.

http://www.incredibleindiatravels.in/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/crowded-bus-300x199.jpg

1.Hazard

2.Exposure

3.Vulnerability

4.Resilience

http://www.chula.ac.th/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/03/Building_0456.jpg

37

http://www .g eog r. un i- g oett in ge n.d e/kus/pics/ vn3 /vn19 99-b rem er-old-m an- m ediu m 1.jpg

http://www.design.md/_files/1165-photo_07-08-02_4925_kostea.jpg

Vulnerability is the relationship between event scales and impact consequences

1.Hazards

2.Exposure

3.Vulnerability

4.Resilience

38

• The capacity to recover after impacts• Socio-economic factors

– Financial status, Social support, Insurance– Resources accessibility（Finance, physical/non-physical)– Social capitals (Profession, education, prestige)– Social network– Ability for self-Safety

• Elderly, Handicapped, homeless, single parents

1.Hazrads

2.Exposure

3.Vulnerability

4.Resilience

http://i.pbase.com/g6/18/755218/3/77196702.B2zrsUF0.jpghttp://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LE389_1110CP_G_20151110051617.jpg

39

http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/rjo0566l.jpghttp://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/jmo1856l.jpg

üThe probability that an adverse effect will occur to someone.

• UNESCO– Risk(total) =

(Hazard) x (Elements at Risk) x (Vulnerability)

• UN DHA– Expected losses due to a

particular hazard for a given area and reference period.

41

• Damage= Severity＊Exposure＊Vulnerability(for single event)

• Risk= EAD = – X : Loss from a specific event– f(x): probability density of x to occur

• Expected loss with some specific period– Expected Annual Damage (EAD)

• May be misleading for extreme event– Low occurrence probability– The meaning of “Annual expected loss 100b”

• 100 b for every year• 1000 b for the next ten years• 10000 b for the next 100 years

43

Hazard

DamageAssessment

Probability Simulation

Exposure

Physical Exposure

Vulnerability

Disaster

Risk

VulnerabilityExposure

Probability

Hazard

• Avoidance• Reduction• Transferring• Retention

http://fw 008 613 -4- fly wheel.netdna- s sl.c o m/wp-c on t en t/u pload s /20 15/05/Core_Metabolic_P erso nal_Risk _Re du ctio n - 960 x500 .jpg

–Avoidance• No development on flood-prone regions

–Prevention• Reduce the hazards• Preparedness• Monitoring/Warning

–Protection• Dike/Pumping• Flood gate

http://www.chp-inc.com /wp-content/uploads/2014/09/risk-reduction.jpg

–Pure and simple transfer–Hedging–Pooling

http://previews.123rf.com/images/michaeldb/michaeldb1009/michaeldb100900051/7897962-Cartoon-person-moving-transferring-data-cubes-boxes-in-a-red-wheelbarrow-Stock-Photo.jpg

–Deductible–Captive insurance–Self insurance–Self assumption

• With reserves or funding• Without reserves/funding

RiskManagement

Risk control

Risk analysis

Maintenanceimprovement Preparedness

Disasterresponse

Technicalmeasures

Non-technicalmeasures

Planningdisasterrelief

Earlywarning andevacuation

Emergencyhelp-rescue

Humanitarianassistance

Recon-struction

Hazard estimationVulnerability analysisRisk assessment

Riskfinancing

InsuranceHedging Detention

Force

Semi-force

Liberty

Sources:Munasinghe and Swatt, 2005.

Time series and trends of the annual mean temperature in Taiwan.(The Science Report of Taiwan Climate Change 2011)

The annual total number of rainy days (daily rainfall≧ 0.1mm) in Taiwan. (The Science Report of Taiwan Climate Change 2011)

Sources:Munasinghe and Swatt, 2005.

The Surveyor's Role in Monitoring, Mitigating, and Adapting to Climate Change: FIG Task Force on Surveyors and Climate Change. REPORT, FIG PUBLICATION NO 65Book · September 2014

A SpammerIn the Climate Wheel

Human Activities

Climate Change Process

Major Threats

Main Climate Characteristics

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

-- NCDR Taiwan 2014/03

Other Disasters(Short term)

Pattern/Characteristics Change (Long term)

Extreme Climate hazards

• Disaster• Infrastructure• Water resources• Land use• Costal zones• Energy supply & Industry• Agr. Production & Biodiversity• Health

• Changing rainfall patterns– Increasing flood/drought risks

• Increasing typhoon Numbers/Strength – Impact the contingency and recovery capacity of

disaster prevention systems

• Transportation– Highway, bridge

• Protection:– Dikes, pumping plant

• Lifeline & Critical infrastructure– Power and water– Communication– Energy

• Changing hydrological patterns– Intensity – Temporal

• More demands (agr/domestic)• Deteriorating water quality in streams

• Extreme climate– Increase sensitivity/vulnerability of the ecosystem– Damaging land resource use safety

• Damaging protecting structures • Erosions in costal areas• Impact on natural attractions and resources

• Demand/Supply balances– Demand patterns change– Increasing energy cost– Damaging the economy

• Rain/temperature changes– Quantity/Quality impacts– Food security

• Loss in Biodiversity – Changing habitat /ecosystems

• More serious infectious disease epidemic– Rising temperature

• Increasing mortality in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases

• Burdening the public health system

Sources:Munasinghe and Swatt, 2005.

68

• Scenario– Plausible combinations representing possible

future situations– Used to assess the consequences of possible

feature conditions

• Analogue climate change scenarios– scenarios based on past climate

• Scenarios based on climate model output • Arbitrary climate change scenarios

– devised arbitrarily based on expert judgement

70

• Changes in key variables selected to test the sensitivity of a system to possible changes in climate. – Usually uniform annual changes in variables (T or PPT)

• Most useful for testing the sensitivity of systems to changes in individual variables and combined changes.

Preparedness according to

economy status

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/2001_%E8%87%BA%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E7%B4%8D%E8%8E%89%E6%B0%B4%E7%81%BD%E4%B9%8B%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E8%B7%AF_September_Flood_in_Taipei,_TAIWAN_-_10.jpg

• Disaster:• Hazard:• Vulnerability:• Exposure:• Probability:• Risk: (Hazard)*(Exposure)*(Vulnerability)

– Unit: $– A single event? or for a specific area and period?– Summation of (H*E*V*Pr.) for all probable event.

• Disaster: Flood• Hazard: Rain/ Inundation• Vulnerability: Loss vs. Depth • Exposure: People / Building / Infrastructure/• Probability: occurrence likelihood of the event• Risk: (Hazard)*(Exposure)*(Vulnerability)

– Unit: $– A single event? or for a specific area and period?– Summation of (H*E*V*Pr.) for all probable event.

73

Hazard (Severity of Dangerousness)

ØPotential for Negative impact(Loss/Damages)n Casualty, physical, environmental, economical,

service/functionality, image/dignityn Flood/Drought/Earthquake

ØHazard may not necessarily cause lossesn Population/socio-economic activityn Potential to loss

ØHazard expressionn Intensity/severity distribution

ü Spaceü TIme

74

Flood hazard potential map

• Extent to which an organization and/or stakeholder is subject to an event

• Stakeholder: Objects that may be affected– Population– Buildings– Infrastructures– Socio-economic system functionality

• Intrinsic properties of something resulting in susceptibility to a risk source that can lead toan event with a consequence– Category

• Residential: Single/Multiple family• Commercial: Service (Wholesaler/Retailer)• Industrial: Manufacturing• Infrastructure

– Damage characteristics• Loss vs. intensity

• Residential: Single/Multiple family• Industrial：Manufacture, Wholesale, Retail, Service• Vehicle, public work, infrastructure

大規模批發業

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

淹水深度(m)

損失

(萬

NT$)

Wholesaler

Flooding depth

大規模零售業

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3 3.3

淹水深度(m)

損失

(萬

NT$)

Retailer

Flooding depth

79

• Bio-Physical– Relationship between event scales and

impact consequences• Social

– Resilience

– A weakness in a system which increases the likelihood of a failure

• a software, hardware, or procedural weakness that may provide an attacker the open door to enter a system.

80

Hazard HouseholdExposure

汐止區域淹Risk 大規模批發業

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

淹水深度(m)

損失

(萬

NT$)

Vulnerability

81http://sites.google.com/site/flowmappingexamples/_/rsrc/1232358328148/colour-maps/glasgow_raster_vector_mig2.png

02yr 50yr10yr 25yr 100yr 200yr 500yr

83

83

85

• Damage=Severity＊Exposure＊Vulnerability– Single event, historical/future

• Expected loss with some specific period– Natural Disaster – Expected Annual Damage (EAD)– Multiple events, future planning

• Risk= EAD = – X : Loss from a specific event– f(x): probability density of x to occur

Expected Loss

87

由潛勢到風險

Overlaid Potential Maps Flood Risk Map

• To justify the economic feasibility of a disaster mitigation project

• B/C analysis• Benefit = Impact Reduction due to the project

93

• Based on Losses– Regional planning– Disaster preparations

• Based on Hazards– Insurance premium– Tax deduction

AAFL (NT＄)

AAFL

Ratio of infant (<5 Yr. old)Ratio of Elderly (>65 Yr. old)Ratio of Financial support (>65+<14) / (>14+<65)Ratio of Elderly live aloneRatio of aboriginalRatio of ForeignersEducation (Ratio of illiteracy under 15)Income levelDistance to Police stationsDistance to Fire Dept. Stat.Distance to Medical servicesDistance to Shelter

http://i.pbase.com/g6/18/755218/3/77196702.B2zrsUF0.jpghttp://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LE389_1110CP_G_20151110051617.jpg

Resilience

Vulnerability

98

• Resilience Map for flood risk– Indicator for social vulnerability (Resilience)– Spatial variations– For flood risk management decisions

• Areas with High risk / Low resilience– More concerns – Allocating the flood risk management budgets– Social stability and sustainable development

Flood R.T.=2yr

Flood R.T.=10yr

Flood R.T.=50yr

Flood R.T.=100yr

Flood R.T.=200yr

Flood R.T.=500yr

Flood LossRT=2

Flood LossRT=10

Flood LossRT=50

Flood LossRT=100

Flood LossRT=200

Flood LossRT=500

Flood LossRT=500

• AAL: Average Annual Loss– Project economic feasibility assessment

• AAH: Average Annual Hazard– Discriminating insurance premium– Monitoring and warning

• SV: Social Vulnerability– Resilience for social subsidization or emergency support

• Composited Risk Index:– Overall regional risk comparisons for decision support

• Super-imposition– HH, HL, LH, LL

• The classification

• Overlay addition– With weighting factors

• Different weighting factors may change the results• threshold for H/L

Risk MapAAL

Risk MapAAL (H/L)

Avg.= 5 ; Stdv=12(Cutoff threshold Avg+0S)

Risk MapAAH

Risk MapAAH (H/L)

Avg.= 5 ; Stdv=12(Cutoff threshold Avg+0S)

Risk MapAAH+AAL

SV (H/L)Social Vulnerability

Risk MapAAL+SV

Risk MapAAD+SV

Risk MapAAL+AAD+SV

• 4 Possible outcome after overlay– LL- OK– HL- Warning (Land use review/ Decrease economic intensity)

– LH- Warning/Eng. (minority living on flood-prone areas)

– HH- Action!!

Risk MapAAL+AAD

• 4 Possible outcome after overlay– LL- OK– HL- Land Use/Eng. (Siam Sta. area?) (Decrease economic intensity)

– LH- Warning/Evacuation/Eng.– HH- Action!! Need extra concerns (Decrease economic intensity)

Risk MapAAL+SV

• 4 Possible outcome after overlay– LL- OK– HL- OK or Not likely /Eng.– LH- Warning/Eng. (Not flood-prone, monitoring)

– HH - Action!! Need extra concerns (minority living on flood-prone areas)

Risk MapAAD+SV

• 8 Possible outcome after overlay– LLL- OK– HLL- Land use review. (Siam Sta. area?)

– LHL- OK/Eng. for marginal land development

– HHL- Warning/Eng. (Bangpa-In Ind.park)

– LLH- Warning/Eng.– HLH- Warning/Land use review/Eng.– LHH- Action!!– HHH- Action!! (1st Priority)

Risk MapAAL+AAD+SV

Risk MapAAL+AAD+SV

137https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/Portals/4/Images/Risk_Cycle.gif

Identify

Hazard Analysis

Exposure Analysis

DamageAssessment

Loss Exceedance Prob. Curve

Risk= Average Annual Loss

Bio-Physical Vulnerability

Receptor Characteristics

Standardized Index

Bio-Physical

Socio-economic

Data

Resilience Data

Social Vulnerability

Standardized Index

Social

Disaster

Risk

VulnerabilityExposure

Probability

Hazard

Single EventEmergency Response

• Watch/Monitoring/Warning systems– Indicators /Thresholds

• Well-prepared database– Exposure/ Hazards /Resources

• Coordination / Communication/ Collaboration– Top-down and horizontal – NGO /NPO

http://safetylineloneworker.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Emergency-Word-Cloud-1024x663.jpg

Disaster

Risk

VulnerabilityExposure

Probability

Hazard

Multiple Future Events

Risk Management

Risk

VulnerabilityExposure

Probability

Hazard

• Engineering approaches– Infrastructures: dike, pumps– Flood Gates

• Low Impact Development (LID)• Environment Managements

– Integrated Watershed Management (IWM)

• Waning/Evacuation– Short term

• Land use planning– Long term

• Hazard Resilient Community/home– Better design code– Local protections

• Well prepared plan for high social vulnerable– Warning, Evacuation

• NGO/NPO– Integrated with the public forces

• Project evaluations• Disaster Mitigation planning• Land use planning• Insurance policy/system

Exce

edan

ce P

rob.

Loss $

Single Event

http://fourteenip.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/risk_measurement_800_clr.png

• Improper Land uses• More population density• Higher Economic development Intensity

• Reduce the potential damages/losses• Regional development planning• Macro economy / Budget allocations

http://www.dpdg.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/financial-risk-reduction.jpg

• Engineering– Increase the design capacity

• Pump/Dikes• Reduce hazard potential

• Non-Engineering– Land use planning– Monitoring / Early warning system

DesignCapacity

Vulnerable Resilient

Damage Elastic

Severity / Impact / LoadFlooding depth; Lateral acceleration; Wind speed

Exceedance prob.

0.05

Flooding Losses $

0.01

Design capacity＝20Yr

Design capacity＝100Yr

Exceedance Prob.

0.010

Flooding Damage $

High development Intensity

Low development intensity

0.50.0250 yrs

0.52yrs

• Pumping Station– Without the pump

• AAFL=0.91 B NT$– With the pump

• AAFL=0.89 B NT$– Direct Benefit

• ~ 19.60M NT$

158

• Hard to detect – Slow-onset, creeping phenomena

• Hard to define– Intensity/Frequency/Resilience

• Lack of assessment indicators– needs multiple indicators and indices

• Difficult to estimate the damages/impacts– non-structural impact– spread over large areas

• “the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.” --International Red Cross, 1984

• A deficiency of precipitation from expected or “normal” that, when extended over a season or longer period of time, is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the environment. -- US National Drought Mitigation Center

• Meteorological – Less than normal precipitation lasting for long period– Based on precipitation only

• Agricultural – In-sufficient soil moisture to support adequate crop

plant growth• Hydrological

– In-balance among surface/ground water due to n-normal precipitations

• Socio-economical – Severe negative impacts in social, economical, political,

psychological aspects from no proper actions taken to take care of the meteorological /hydrological drought.

2009/3/24 161

Early warning

signal

How to detect？

http://www.c liparthut.com/clip-arts/916/water-cartoon-thirsty-clip-art-916904.png

• Meteorological– Precipitation

• Agricultural– Soil moisture

• Hydrological– Surface/subsurface water supplies

• Socio-economic– Supply vs. demand

• Frequency:• Duration: Consecutive period below the threshold

• Intensity : Accumulative amount below the threshold

SPI Level of Severity Return Period0 to -0.99 Early Warning 2 Yr.

-1.00 to -1.49 Light 6 Yr.-1.50 to -1.99 Medium 15 Yr.-2 or less Severe 44 Yr.

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/SPI-html/SPI-description.html

ü Where, Xij is the seasonal precipitation at the ith rain-gauge station and jth

observation, Xim is its long-term seasonal mean and σ is its standard deviation.

ü Negative values obtained from this equation indicate precipitation deficits (drought events), while positive values stand for precipitation excesses (wet events).

Meteo-rological

Agri-cultural

Hydro-logical

Socio-Economcal

Light Medium Severe

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

ü Precipitationü River Inflow

ü Water rightü Reservoir OP

ü Agri.ü Indus.ü Muni. W

ater

Dem

and

Drought Hazard(Supply Deficit)

Water ResourcesManagement Supply/Demand

DemandSupply

Supply/DemandMatching

Allocations

Water Resources

Data

Drought Risk Maps

n 57 Townshipsn Irrigation area 64,000 ha

台 灣 縣 市

曾 文 烏 山 頭 灌 區

幹 線

支 線

分 線

169/78

Basic Data

Model Base/Parameters

HydraulicsHydrologicDatabase

Administrative County/Township/Village

AgricultureCropping patternAreaIrrigation System

IndustrialInd. Activity Census

DomesticTreatment PlantPopulation censusWater supply area

AgricultureIrrigation Eff.Conveyance loss

IndustrialDemand per areaMonthly variationsRecycling

DomesticPer Capita DailyWater savingAllocation RulesMonthly variations

River Basin

Drainage Network

Surface intakes

Reservoirs

Treatment Plants

Pipe line network

GW Wells

170/78

嘉義市

布袋鎮

水上鄉

新港鄉

義竹鄉

太保鄉

東石鄉

竹崎鄉

番路鄉

阿里山鄉

大林鄉

大埔鄉

中埔鄉

溪口鄉

朴子市

鹿草鄉

梅山鄉

六腳鄉

民雄鄉

台南市

白河鎮東山鄉

官田鄉

麻豆鎮

六甲鄉

下營鄉

佳里鎮

七股鄉

西港鄉

學甲鎮

北門鄉

將軍鄉

安定鄉

新營市

柳營鄉

鹽水鎮

後壁鄉

山上鄉

大內鄉

善化鎮

新化鎮

新市鄉

永康市

左鎮鄉

歸仁鄉

仁德鄉

關廟鄉

龍崎鄉

楠西鄉

玉井鄉

南化鄉

支援高雄用水區

鏡面水庫

菜寮溪

烏山頭水庫

東口攔河堰

玉峰堰

急水溪 曾文溪

曾文水庫

後掘溪北港溪 朴子溪

白河水庫

八掌溪

仁義潭水庫

蘭潭水庫

旗山溪(高屏溪上游)

鹽水溪

甲仙堰

南化水庫

荖濃溪

(

越域引水)民雄及

溪口灌區

興中

灌區頂六

灌區

嘉義

灌區

歸仁

灌區

烏山頭

灌區白河

灌區 嘉南大圳

民雄

新港

公園

蘭潭

楠玉

烏山頭

山上

鏡面

南化

白河大內

潭頂

阿里山

樂野

石卓

吳鳳

大埔

大林

地下水源 朴子

竹崎

觸口

石弄

水上

半天寮

地下水源工業用戶

南科

供水系統

大林

中埔

大埔吳鳳

樂野

阿里山

嘉義

台南

鏡面

楠玉

嘉義縣市

台南縣市

圖示

水利設施：水庫

淨水廠

取水節點

需水節點：農業

需水節點：工業

需水節點：民生

水源：河川/地下水

• Spatial units– Municipal

• Townships– Industrial

• Industrial parks– Agriculture

• Diversions

• Drought Potential Maps – Agriculture– Industrial & Municipal

2016/6/6 174

2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 50Y 100Y 150Y 200Y 500Y

2016/6/6 175

農業用水 民生用水

DT（Flow） 50Yrs 100Yrs 150Y 200Y 500Y20Yrs5Yrs2Yr 10Yrs

• Event Based– Based on short term hydrological

forecasting– Roll over analysis through the

time span

178/78

Stream Flowrates

Industry & Municipal Sectors Agriculture Sector

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314 1516171819202122 23242526272829 30313233343536

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016/6/6 179

– Long term disaster potential• Long term (Not single event)• Water resource planning

– Real time warning• Short term analysis (on current situation)• Early warning • Operation to mitigate the impact to the economy

• Vast area and variable crops• Not much to do for emergency response

– Other than Drought, Forest fire, Land slide• More focus on Risk Management

• Flood：Inundation depth • Drought：Deficit rate• Low temperature threshold

– Different species and activity• Forest fire ?

• Agriculture Census– Cultivatable area– Cultivation area (By crops)– # of farming households/persons– Machinery– Fishery – Herds of husbandry

http://cloud.graphicleftovers.com/37842/1102871/agriculture-and-animal-husbandry.jpg

Agricultural Vulnerability

• Time of onset– Growing stages

• Financial loss assessment– Expend loss of the expected revenues?– Market price variation– Secondary loss

• Ripple effects for secondary industry• Input/output Analysis

• Meeting water demands with supplies– Water saving promotion – Effective management– Flexible Allocations

• Multiple supply sources– natural water supply

• Reservoirs/Ponds• River diversions• Groundwater• Return flow from Irrigation• Rainwater harvest

– New water sources• Seawater desalination• Reclaim water from Sewage• Reclaim water from Industries

Shift from Supply-driven to Demand-driven

• Agricultural Sector – hold large big share of water right– Low economic output– Necessary for national food security

• Industrial Sector– High economic efficiency– Need stable water supply– High marginal benefit for using water

• Metropolitan Sector– Low water price– Low price elasticity– High leakage rate (20~30%)

2016/6/6 台灣大學 生物環境系統工程系 蘇明道sumd@ntu.edu.tw 187/65

• Higher price for lower risk (Stable supply)• The Industry can pay more

– In general :water cost ~ 0.5%。– Semiconductor: water cost ~ 0.1%

• Changing government mindset– Stable supply instead of low price

AGR

M&I

Average Deficit RateAgr.：14.8%M&I：8.6%

蘇明道、溫在弘 2006Supply deficit rate (%)

Exce

edan

ce p

roba

bilit

y

AGRDeficit

M&IDeficit

Current (No Transfer)Avg. Deficit RateAGR：14.8%M&I：8.6%

Transfer AGR to M&IAvg. Deficit Rate

AGR：23%M&I：1.2%

蘇明道、溫在弘 2006Supply deficit rate (%)

Exce

edan

ce p

roba

bilit

y

Supply deficit rate (%)

Deficit rates in AgriculturalUnder different transferring scenarios

蘇明道、溫在弘 2006

Exce

edan

ce p

roba

bilit

y

Food Production

New Supply

CurrentM&I Demands

Current supply

Current Irrigation Demands

High market value

CropsFarmLand

Release

Risk

IncreasingM&I Demands

Increasing Water Deficit

Risk

Fallow in Drought Temp.

FallowLong-term

Fallow

• Every sectors get enough water supply– But Ind. Pay more and have

higher priority during drought

• Industrial – get adequate supply based on the price they paid. – Higher price more stable, less risk

• Agricultural– Reduce the supply (fallow) by paying the farmers

for loss compensations• Municipal

– Household/Emergency– Other (car washing, swimming pool, etc.)

2016/6/6 台灣大學 生物環境系統工程系 蘇明道sumd@ntu.edu.tw 194/65

• Industrial– Pay higher price for stable water supply– Controllable risk planning

• Agricultural– Earn more revenue for system improvement– Better management to cut down water loss– Need more careful planning for food security

• High yield efficiency• Storage and international trading

• Municipal – Replace the old pipe system to decrease water leakage loss– Better service quality

• higher supply pressure to eliminate intermediate storage

• Understanding Risk (Natural Disasters)– Identification, analysis, management– Hazard/Exposure/Vulnerability/Resilience

• Climate Change Adaptation– Arbitrary scenario

• Flood risk management– Risk analysis, Risk maps

• Sectorial water reallocations– An Win-Win proposal

https://hysterectomy4dysmenorrhea.files.wordpress.com /2016/01/en d-the.jpg?w=633&h=422