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Climate change adaptation:
Land-based primary industry
Robyn Dynes, Jeremy Bryant, Paul Newton, Val Snow, Mark Lieffering (AgRresearch)
Hamish Brown, Derek Wilson (Plant & Food)
Tim Payn & Peter Beets (Scion)
Land-based industries
• Export earnings• $25b
• Employment• 156 000 people in Ag, forestry & Fishing
• 75 000 in food & beverage manufacture ?
• food exports to world• NZ feeds 17 million people
[Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis. http://www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/labour-market-statistics-2008.htmFood export: AgResearch analysis from: MAF SONZAF (2008), ibid year to 31 March 2008
Land-based primary industry = $25b
[Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis)
Our competitive advantage
• Temperate growing conditions
• relatively free of pests and diseases
• efficient production systems
• flexible and innovative producers
• farmers are consistently adapting• Adverse weather events
• Commodity prices
• Labour shortage
1990
2001
2008
Planted Forests – climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation
productivity
Impacts:Productivity, weeds, pests and diseases, fire, wind
Mitigation:Carbon ForestsEnergy ForestsLower GHG footprint
Adaptation:Breeding strategiesSiting and silvicultureNew technologies
Focus on fungal diseases
Cyclaneusma and Dothistroma• Needle cast fungi• Prefers warm humid conditions• Lower needle mass = slower growth• Sites with Cyclaneusma average 20%
below maximum productivity• Dothi can be treated (copper
oxychloride) – Up to 200,000ha sprayed
annually• No treatment for Cyclaneusma
Adaptation responses• Spraying• Breed tolerant genotypes• Plant different species• Move the forests
Crown Health and Growth
020406080
100
0 20 40 60 80
Defoliation (%)
Gro
wth
(%
)
Possible impact of scenarios
Scenarios suggest different impacts on the forestsRegional differences are apparent
North Island 2040
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Low 2040 High 2040
South Island 2040
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Low 2040 High 2040
All Forests 2040
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Low 2040 High 2040
Adaptation responses for fungal diseases
Breed resistant genotypes• Likely only to offset 25% of fungal impact• Slow process
Change species• Other species do not get infected• Only good if productivity as high as for current species
Move the forests• Focus on warmer sites where rainfall remains @ today's levels• Land price and infrastructure issues
More chemicals• Only works for dothistroma• Added costs, lower profitability
Adaptation Strategies for Planted Forests
• Improved understanding of climate effects on forest processes• In depth scenario analysis to drive development of adaptation strategies• National approach to development of adaptation strategies• A portfolio of approaches will be needed and will include:
• New genotypes, new forest systems, establishment of forests on different sites
Broad acre cropping – the arable sector
• Grain• Wheat, Barley, Oats, Maize, Peas
• Small seeds• Grass, Clover, Vegetable, Forage
• Vegetable • Potato, Sweet corn, Onions, Squash, Brassica
• Forages• Cereal, Annual ryegrass, Brassica, Maize
• Pastoral Phase• Grass/clover pastures
Climate change – the impact on cropping
Increased production potential• Doubling CO2 will increase growth 30%
Decreased duration• Crops develop faster in higher temperature
Crop growing areas shift
Increased nutrient demand• More N, P, K and S needed to exploit increased production
potential
Potential production (fully irrigated)
1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr
Bio
mas
s (t
/ha)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Current+0.7 oC, CO2 = 450 ppm+1.1 oC, CO2 = 550 ppm+0.9 oC, CO2 = 500 ppm+2.6 oC, CO2 = 700 ppm
High carbon
Rapidly decarbonising
Current
Water !!!
East coast• Hotter, windier, less rain, more variability
• Increased water demand in irrigated crops
• Decreased yield in dryland crops
• Greater chance of crop failure (multiple years)
West coast• More rain (on average), more variable (???)
0
5
10
15
20
0 500 1000 1500
Water use (mm)
Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)Water use and production
CO2 + ET
- Rain
- IrrigCO2
+ ET
- Rain
- Fertiliser
Adaptation
Irrigated
Increased crop demand• More efficient irrigation systems
• More efficient crop species
• Irrigation schemes
Dryland
Less rainfall• Drought avoidance techniques
• More resilient crops
• Financial buffers
Ensure nutrient supply
Exploit higher yield potential• Longer duration crops
• Opportunities for multiple crops per year
• Wider variety of suitable crops
in areas getting dryer with adequate water
Fruit Crop Impacts & Adaptations
• Poor flowering from inadequate winter chilling• New varieties with lower chill requirements
• Increased vegetative vigour• Pruning strategies, dwarfing root stock, chemical flowering
• Fruit damage from extreme events (eg hail storms, sunburn)
• Longer growing season giving higher quality and yield• Southward movement of production
Pastoral sector adaptation – lambs tailed/marked per ewe put to ram
[Source: sheep numbers and lamb numbers spreadsheets at http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/pastoral/livestock-numbers/, AgResearch analysis. Years are to 30 June]
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Slope: 0.77% pa
Slope: 0.09% pa
Adaptive strategies:ograzing systemsopasture quality oNitrogen oultrasonic pregnancy scanningoHogget mating.oImproved ewe prolificacy.
(Photo: AgResearch)
Pastoral farming – case study
Dairy Farm
High/low carbon vs case study
Dairy Farm
• Temperature oC Rainfall change (%)
2030 2080 2030 2080
Low carbon
0.5 1.0 +6% w +8%w
Our scenario
.7 2.1 +10 +22
High carbon
.75 2.5 +4%w +14%w
Manawatu dairy farms
Clay & sandy soils
2030 2080
Palmerston North
Manawatu River
Coastline
Sandy soils
Clay soils
15 km
Tararua Ranges
Soil map of part of the Manawatu
Source: http://gisportal.landcareresearch.co.nz
Pasture production - increases in Manawatu
EcoMod
Annual productionTonnes dry matter
2000 10.72030 12.02080 12.4
2000 9.42030 10.62080 11.5
• change pasture composition• invasion C4 grasses
Pasture quality declines
Pastoral farming – case study
Dairy Farm
•Manawatu•128 hectares• calve mid to late July• 260 days in milk• 340 kg milksolids/cow
• Conservation of hay and silage• buy-in maize silage• no nitrogen fertiliser
Cows produce less milk
• despite growing more grass
• Less energy = less milk
Production and profitability decline
Soil Type Clay Sand
Year Yr 2030 Yr 2080 Yr 2030 Yr 2080
Milk solids (kg/ha) -17 -64 -11 -53
Milk solids (kg/cow) -9 -35 -7 -33
Profitability ($/ha) -90 -337 -58 -275
Adaptation- the opportunities• more grass• lower quality= cows must be allowed to eat more
= high risk further decline quality
Target = matching pasture cover
Adaptation- the opportunities
Adaptation
Adaptation captures the benefits-more milk
• Earlier calving date = more milk in July/Aug
• Higher stocking rates = more milk overall
• change with time
Adaptation strategies
Increase in cow number (%)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
5
10
15
Increase in days-in-milk (days)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
5
10
15
20
Increase in pasture intake (kg DM /ha /yr)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
1
2
Adaptation – the bottom line
More cows
Cows eat more
Cows milk for longer
Increase in milk solids per cow (kg MS /cow /yr)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
20
40
Increase in milk solids per ha (kg MS /ha /yr)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
50
100
150
Increase in profitability ($ /ha /yr)
Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080
0
200
400
600
Adaptation – Land-based industries
• unknown: • weeds, pests, diseases• systems complexity• unintended consequences• community & regulator impacts
• Adverse events –high cost to business & community• storms• flooding• fire
Adaptation: Land-based industries
• adaptation = incremental change = business as usual
• enterprise resilience will depend on manager responses• Perceived risk
• Tools and strategies to respond
• tools, technology and knowledge available in many areas• More tools required
• Higher technical skills required for success
• adopting these tools within complex farming systems farming within multiple pressures is the real challenge.
• unintended consequences• GHG production
• Impact of regulation
• Community expectations
• Current strategies will only in-part meet tomorrows issues
Thank you
Acknowledgements
Barbara Hock, Lucy Manning – Geospatial analysis
Lindsay Bulman – background information on fungal diseases
FRST for support through the ‘Mitigation of Climate Change and the Role of Forests’ Programme CO4X04706