Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports ... change adaptation for maritime and...
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Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation infrastructure PIANC WG 178 Ben Hodgkin 27 November 2015
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports ... change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation infrastructure PIANC WG 178 Ben Hodgkin 27 November
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation infrastructure PIANC WG 178
Ben Hodgkin 27 November 2015
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Agenda
Overview
Key objectives and scope of guidance
Outline for work to date: Understanding the climate science Understanding and assessing the risks Workshops and case studies
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
I will start with a brief overview of the points I will touch on this afternoon, starting with an overview of the key objectives and scope of the WG 178 guidance document. I will then outline the main elements of work that have been undertaken to date, including: Understanding the climate science Understanding and assessing the risks posed by climate change And Workshops and case studies – where best practice guidance will be collated
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Overview
The mission: Raise awareness; build capacity Highlight importance of preparedness Focus on data collection and management Avoid ‘paralysis due to uncertainty’ Bring climate change adaptation into mainstream
business planning
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
So firstly, why are we preparing this report? Well, following consultation with industry, it was clear there is a need for a comprehensive but concise guidance document for port owners and operators addressing climate change risk and adaptation. Therefore, the mission of the WG report is to: Raise awareness; build capacity Highlight importance of preparedness Focus on data collection and management Avoid ‘paralysis due to uncertainty’ Bring climate change adaptation into mainstream business planning A key aim of the document is to ensure it is applicable to a broad a range of owners and operators - particularly in developing countries and countries in transition where often the level of data and experience is quite low. However, the publication will also be pertinent to developed countries not least because, whilst there is existing experience in some of these countries, levels of dissemination and sharing of information about climate change and adaptation options are often very low.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Group membership
Call for nominations in Autumn 2014 36 active members – maritime, inland and recreational
expertise EnviCom mentor – Jan Brooke (Jan Brooke Consulting) Chair – Charles Haine (Royal HaskoningDHV)
10 partner organisations including:
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
The call for nominations was released by PIANC in the Autumn last year. I think it is fair to say it generated a lot of interest and we are lucky to currently have 36 active members within the working group. This is made up a range of operators, users, consults and academics from across the maritime, inland and recreational sectors. The group is headed up by our EnviCom mentor Jan Brooke and Chairman Charles Haine from Royal HaskoningDHV. In addition, our members also include representation for a wide range of partner organisations, include the dredging sector, European ports, IALA, the harbour masters and UNCTAD
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Group membership
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
We also have a good geographical spread of members – this is a real benefit for the group as we are able to draw on a wide range of practical experience from across the globe.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Key objectives To develop an approach to climate change adaptation
planning and delivery for maritime and inland port and navigation infrastructure;
To refer to the PIANC TG3 report on climate impacts
To generate a toolbox of adaptation options
To evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation options in typical or generic climate change scenarios;
To understand and provide guidance on addressing challenges and identifying priorities;
To provide a guidance framework for decision making.
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
To develop an approach to climate change adaptation, planning and delivery for maritime and inland port and navigation infrastructure; Refer to updated TG3 report; collate other relevant existing information on climate projections including extreme events; understand key regional differences as far as practicable Generate toolbox of adaptation options; include non-structural (management; behavioural) as well as structural (technical; engineering) measures To evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation options in typical or generic climate change scenarios; Understand and provide guidance on the challenges faced by users, owners, operators and managers of navigation infrastructure To provide a guidance framework to assist owners / operators with their decision making process. A key driver for the group is to ensure that the final report is user friendly, and guides the user through the steps that they should take in assessing and implementing climate change adaptation measures.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Scope of guidance document Provide an appropriate level of background information
Help the reader understand and explore the widest possible
range of options
Ensure the reader appreciates the importance of preparedness.
Discuss some of the challenges which could be faced, including scepticism about climate change
Describe a decision making framework
Support all of the above through the collation and presentation of case studies
Highlight technical gaps that would benefit from the preparation of additional PIANC guidance
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
To deliver these objectives, the guidance document will: Provide an appropriate level of background information – introduce the key climate science and risk assessment concepts. It will help the reader understand and explore the widest possible range of options And will Ensure the reader appreciates the importance of preparedness. The document will discuss some of the challenges which could be faced, including scepticism about climate change And describe a decision making framework Support for all of the above will be provided through the collation and presentation of case studies – something we think we add re value to the final report – providing good evidence of global best practice in adaptation planning. The document will also highlight technical gaps that would benefit from the preparation of additional PIANC guidance
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Provisional report structure
1. Orientation and Context 2. Climate Change Science 3. Identify and Assess Risks 4. Raise Awareness and Build Capacity 5. Collect and Manage data 6. Selection of Adaptation Options 7. Adaptation Plan 8. Plan Implementation
Appendix A – Glossary Appendix B – Outcomes from Regional Workshops Appendix C – Seaports and Marine Infrastructure Tool Box Appendix D – Inland Navigation Appendix E – Useful Resources
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2015
2016
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The provisional structure of the report to capture all this information is shown here: Orientation and context is clearly important to set the tone of the guidance document An overview of the climate change science will then be presented. Section 3 will address the methods for the identification and assessment of the risks of climate change – a key part of the document Section 4 will provide the reader with techniques and case studies about how to raise awareness and build capacity And then a section will be included on the collection and management of relevant data The final sections of the document will provide guidance on the selection of appropriate adaptation options, developing an adaption plan and the implementation and monitoring of the adaptation plan. The delivery of the work has been broadly split in to two – with the group focussing on the first five sections, in addition to the collection of case studies, in 2015. Our next plenary meeting is to be held in London in January next year, after which the focus will be on complete the remaining sections of the document and the development of a toolbox of adaptation measures for the maritime, inland and recreational sectors. I will now briefly outline the work undertaken on the first five sections of the report during the last 8 months.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Overview of key climatic parameter – reference to TG3
Outline key impacts expected from change in climatic
parameters
Introduce techniques for moving from global to regional / local data
Introduce tiered approach to the assessment of risl
Not a technical / scientific paper!
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Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Section 2 – the basis
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Key Climatic Parameters Changes in precipitation Storms / Waves Fluvial flows Sea level rise Ice Bathymetric or bed level change Shoreline evolution, Large scale ocean circulation Wind Fog Water levels Tidal currents Air temperature Biological or chemical changes Wind driven currents Groundwater
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Section 2 – Climatic Variables
Description of parameter – summary of global trends (direction and rate of change) and impacts
Discussion on regional variations and highlight uncertainties
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Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Section 2 – Climatic Variables
Translation from: Global – AR5 / TG3 Regional – regional wave models / studies Local – if appropriate recommendations for specific
localised modelling
Introduction of tiered conservatism approach.
Recommendation for ‘do minimum’ – based on current observations and trends.
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Tiered approach – this would be based on a assessment of both life / exposure horizon and importance of the infrastructure or operation being assessed A least conservative assessment for assets or operations considered low value could at least be guided to take account of any known present rates of change – for example in sea level rise. A moderate value asset might choose a ‘most likely’ situation as described by the IPCC, and a high value or post disaster function asset might choose a conservative IPCC trajectory. Do minimum could consist of asking the questions: - expected to be relatively wetter or dryer by season? a lot or a little? - likely relative rate of sea level rise? - likely relative rate of both air and water temperature increase / any regional projections regarding heat waves or droughts? - likelihood of more frequent extreme events (cyclones, etc.)
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Section 3 – Identify and assess risks
Assets and Risks Overview of impacts Define subsystems Why adapt?
Risk Assessment Definitions Risk assessment process Risk Assessment Matrix
Vulnerability/Resilience Quantify Vulnerabilities
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Assets and Risks Define subsystems: infrastructures, operations, transportation, utilities, energy, environment… Why adapt? Relate to impacts and potential consequences for port and navigation operations, activities and infrastructure. Risk Assessment Definitions – Likelihood of Events, Magnitude of Consequences, Residual Risk Quantifying Risk Risk assessment process: It is proposed to present a range of approaches with some guidelines and the reader to decide which approach to use. A typical risk assessment process will be presented in the report – this will be used to illustrate the concepts discussed Risk Assessment Matrix (identify priority study areas and corresponding elements with the highest priorities for adaptation) Vulnerability/Resilience Quantify Vulnerabilities Collect information on historical vulnerability, identify the study areas and within those the infrastructure and operations that could be vulnerable to climate change, rank them on the basis of climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity, identification of highly vulnerable “hot spots”, discuss use of index-based methods, Indicator-based approaches, GIS-based decision support systems, and/or methods based on dynamic computer models.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Scope definition - problem context, goals and objectives, problems and constraints. Assess resource needs and availability (human, technical, financial) Capacity building: within port or navigation authority; also engage Stakeholders. Preparedness – skills, awareness raising, communication, resources Case Studies – Case studies to have business case information – how was awareness raised and how was the need to build capacity demonstrated. We hope this enable
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Section 5 – Collect and Manage Data Data Set Gap analysis Data capture methodology Simulation – validation and calibration methods Data management
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
We feel this is one of the key sections of the report as the lack of data is often cited as a reason for non-action. We will therefore highlight the importance of data collection as it is a realistic Data set Climatic / Environmental: regional / national / local basis (eg wave heights, precipitation, temperature, wind, etc Performance data (operations, assets, economic, staff) Data could be climatic data in a true sense, or climatic effect upon assets / condition assessment Gap analysis – assess what gaps of relevance exist in data already available or being collected. Data capture methodology: (range of technical and non-technical methods), using others’ data. Potential simulation, Validation/calibration Data management, data retention Collection of data could be a specific outcome of the risk assessment process, particularly if the risk assessment concludes that action should be deferred to a later date.
Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Case studies and Workshops
A key output of the guidance document – collecting best
practice.
Workshops planned in: London Italy Philippines South Africa
Workshops to ensure wide range of experience and best
practice is captured.
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Climate change adaptation for maritime and inland ports, waterways and navigation | 27 November 2015
Case studies and Workshops
Case studies of climate change adaptation are currently
being collected to inform toolbox of adaptation options.
The key questions relate to : information about the initiative, its location and its
objectives details of which climatic factors / parameters were
considered, and overview of the main findings and/or recommendations,
