Climate change –a threat to the waning of war?...Climate change – a threat to the waning of war? Climate change –a road to disaster? • Darfur is the first of many climate wars

Climate change – a threat to the waning of war?

Climate change– a threat to the waning of war?

WHO Collaborating Centre Course,Climate Change, Weather and Human Health

Center for Environmental and Respiratory Research,University of Oulu, 29 October 2014

Nils Petter GleditschPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) &

Department of Sociology and Political Science,Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

[email protected]/www.prio.no/staff/npg


This talk• The frequency and lethality of war is decreasing• And other forms of violence follow the same

trajectory• The decline of war is not linear• There will be many setbacks and challenges• Climate change may be one of them• But climate change is unlikely to reverse the

trend towards less violence• The main problem with climate change is the

uncertainty


Not yet a peaceful world• Since World War II we have experienced

- 254 armed conflicts- in 155 different countries/territories- and with 548 different actors;

states or insurgent movements• This includes all conflicts with more than

25 battle deaths in a calendar yearcivilians as well as combatantsinternal as well as interstate conflicts

• In 2013, 33 conflicts in 25 countries


Armed conflicts 1946–2013


Battle-related deaths, 1900–2008

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

5 000 000

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Intrastate conflicts

International conflicts


Armed conflicts 1946–2013


OK, but what about ...

• Genocide/One-sided violence• Terrorism• Non-state conflict• … or homicide, torture, cruelty to women and

children and even animals (Steven Pinker 2011)


Challenges to the decline of warThe secular peace – the clash of civilizations

- conflict will be driven by religious clashesThe unipolar peace

- there will be new great power challenges to Western hegemonyThe unjust peace

- arise ye domestic and international proletarians

The unsustainable peace- conflict will be driven by environmental change


Challenges to the decline of warThe secular peace – the clash of civilizations

- conflict will be driven by religious clashesThe unipolar peace

- there will be new great power challenges to Western hegemonyThe unjust peace

- arise ye domestic and international proletarians

The unsustainable peace- conflict will be driven by environmental change


Climate change – a road to disaster?• Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Ban Ki-Moon, 2007–08)

• There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades (President Barack Obama's Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, 10 December 2009)

• Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability … and this is a major national security challenge for the US (CNA, 2007; statement by 11 retired US generals and admirals)

• The Independent 31 March 2014 heads a story on a new IPCC report : ‘IPCC report paints bleak picture of war, famine and pestilence’.


The Malthusian Model

Population grows exponentiallyFood production grows linearly

‘Positive’ checks (higher death rate): War, famine, and pestilence

‘Negative’ checks (lower birth rate): Abortions, infanticide, birth control


The neo-Malthusian model

Population pressure & high resource consumption

Resource depletion

Resource scarcity

Resource competition

Armed conflict


Resource optimism• Human ingenuity & technological

innovation• Substitution & adaptation• Market pricing• All of this drives economic growth• Greater wealth less conflict• Cooperation, not violence


A population explosion? (1950–2300)


Empirical studies of conflict• Limited support for scarcity as a driver of conflict• Conflicts are often over resources• but they tend to be driven by greed or opportunity

(raid cattle when they are fat and when the grass is tall enough to hide you)

• From ‘water wars’ to ‘water cooperation’• Other factors dominate (poverty, weak

government, ethnic and religious discrimination, a history of conflict, contagion from neighboring conflicts)


Global warming and conflict 1946–2006


• Sea-level rise migration conflict in host areas• Drought resource scarcity local conflict• Drought migration conflict in host areas• Flooding, hurricanes and other disasters

migration conflict• Natural disasters lower state capacity rebel

opportunity

From climate change to conflict


Evidence: Rainfall• Some studies show conflict in sub-Saharan Africa increasing

the year after a year with reduced rainfall• In other studies, wetter years are more likely to see civil wars• Rainfall variability generally has a significant effect on low-level

forms of political conflict• In a disaggregated analysis (as distinct from nation-level

analyses), drought has no influence on civil conflict in Africa• Precipitation changes in Africa cannot be predicted precisely

from existing climate models• Most studies focus on ‘weather’ rather than ‘climate’


Evidence: Temperature• A 2009 study argues that higher temperatures in SS Africa yield

more conflict because of a negative impact on agriculture• However, these results are disputed (control variables, model

specification, extension of the time series) – vigorous debate!• A fear of global cooling in the early 1970s was seen by the CIA

to produce drought, famine, and political unrest – this preceded the current concern with global warming

• Indeed, wars were more common in China and Europe in cold periods over a 1000-year time period (but this may be less relevant for modern civilizations)


Evidence: Sea-level rise• Global mean sea-level rise to 2100: 0.28-0.43 cm

(IPCC, 2007)• 0.26 to 0.55 m or 0.52 to 0.98 (IPCC, 2013)• Some smaller islands may be flooded• 1.2 bill. live in coastal areas – but the number of new

people exposed annually is likely to be low• People will have time to migrate and counter-measures will

be undertaken• Urbanization will make it more feasible to take protective

measures, such as dikes


Evidence: Migration• Migration is a likely result of climate change• But no basis for 200 mill ‘climate refugees’? • In any case, hundreds of millions of people will

move anyway, as part of the modernization and urbanization processes

• Countries hosting many refugees have a greater risk of civil war

• But does this apply to ‘climate refugees’?• Much migration (notably urbanization) is associated

with greater wealth and lower conflict


Evidence: Natural disasters• The number of hydro-meteorological natural disasters is

increasing, more people affected but fewer people die• Is the increase in the number of disasters due to global warming,

better reporting, shifting settlements?• Increase in cost, but more high-value objects insured• Some studies show natural disasters leading to conflict, but

mainly for geological disasters, which are unrelated to climate change

• More recent studies show that the probability of conflict is reduced in the wake of a disaster – people unite in the face of adversity (the Aceh conflict in Indonesia after the tsunami is an example)


- most of the studies that link CC to conflict concern Africa- most plausible causal mechanism:

increasing temperature and rainfall anomalies rainfed agriculture negatively affected slower or reversed economic development conflict

- possible countermeasures (Paul Collier):- more effective irrigation- modified crops- industrialization- urbanization

- over 50–100 years, adaptation is probably feasible

Countermeasures


The IPCC• Five major assessments to date (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013–14)• Little if anything about conflict in the first two reports• From TAR (2001) three Working Group reports

- WG I The science basis- WG II Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability- WG III Mitigation of climate change


The IPCC• Five major assessments to date (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013–14)• Little if anything about conflict in the first two reports• From TAR (2001) three Working Group reports

- WG I The science basis- WG II Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability- WG III Mitigation of climate change


IPCC TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007)• Little peer-reviewed research• Conflict dealt with in scattered chapters• Inconsistencies, exaggerations, and weak

documentation• Sloganeering (‘water wars’ and ‘climate refugees’)• Sometimes, a chain of citations continues to

reproduce conventional wisdom or hearsay or ends up in a circular pattern

• No authors who specialized in conflict


IPCC AR5 WG II (2014)• ‘Human security’ chapter balanced and well-informed on conflict• ‘Collectively, the research does not indicate a strong positive

relationship between warming and armed conflict’• Studies on rainfall deviations and civil war are inconclusive• Chapters on ‘Emergent risks …’ and ‘Africa’ offer somewhat

more dramatic assessments• Ch 18 on methods focuses on how robust the conclusions are

and dismisses the link between climate change and conflict entirely (different studies disagree and most studies are about ‘weather’)

• Thus, to some extent you can pick and choose!


More on IPCC AR5 WG II (2014)• ‘Human security’ chapter asserts that factors known to be

associated with conflict (such as low development, weak government) are influenced by climate change

• However, if this mechanism was important, studies would have found a consistent link between climate change and conflict – and, by the chapter’s own summary, they do not

• Human security chapter tacitly assumes that the economic consequences of climate change are highly negative

• But the economics chapter of the WG II report concludes that the aggregate global economic effect is a loss of 0.2–2% ofGDP – i.e. less than a year’s economic growth

• Problematic use of words like ‘may’ in causal statements


Research priorities• Look for possible at interactions between climate change

and political and economic factors – under what conditions will climate change make conflict more likely

• Look at a broader set of conflicts (one-sided, non-state, riots)

• Disaggregated studies of geo-referenced data• More precise models of local effects of climate change• Balance negative and positive effects (e.g. food)• Take account of long-term adaptation• Focus on countries with low adaptive capacity


Some conclusions• Man-made climate change is a major challenge and can be seen

as a security issue in a broad sense• But so far there is not robust support for the thesis that climate

change will lead to more armed conflict• War is a public health problem, but other health effects of

climate change are probably more important• Other causes of conflict are better established• Current conflicts (Syria, Ukraine) not caused by climate change• Climate change is not a NEW cause of concern• Countermeasures may also have adverse consequences• Uncertainty is be our major problem – and the main reason to

combat climate change


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION


ReadingsThe literature on climate change and conflict has expanded rapidly in recent years. In my presentation I have tried to sumarize this literature. This list of readings, however, is limited to work by myself and my colleagues at PRIO and NTNU. In order to find references to other parts of the literature, the references in our most recent publications should be helpful. However, at the head of the list, I include the most recent IPCC Assessment Report on the consequences of climate change:

IPCC (2014a). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5. Geneva: IPCC, in press, on-line version available at www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5

Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Climate not to blame for African civil wars. PNAS 107(38): 16477–16482.

Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ole Magnus Theisen (2008) Implications of climate change for armed conflict. Paper commissioned by the Social Dimensions of Climate Change program. Washington, DC: World Bank, Social Development Department,http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTRANETSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/SDCCWorkingPaper_Conflict.pdf.

Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ole Magnus Theisen (2010) Implications of climate change for armed conflict. In: Robin Mearns & Andy Norton (red.) Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World. New Frontiers of Social Policy. Washington, DC: World Bank, 75–101. [Shorter version of Buhaug et al., 2008.]

Buhaug, Halvard; J. Nordkvelle, T. Bernauer, T. Böhmelt, M. Brzoska, J. W. Busby, A. Ciccone, H. Fjelde, E. Gartzke, N. P. Gleditsch, J. A. Goldstone, H. Hegre, H. Holtermann, V. Koubi, J. S. A. Link, P. M. Link, P. Lujala, J. O′Loughlin, C. Raleigh, J. Scheffran, J. Schilling, T. G. Smith, O. M. Theisen, R. S. J. Tol, H. Urdal & N. von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change, in press, DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1, available on-line.

Gleditsch, Nils Petter, guest editor, 2012. ‘Climate Change and Conflict’, special issue of Journal of Peace Research 49(1).

Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 2012. ‘Whither the weather? Climate Change and Conflict’, Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 4–9.


Readings (continued)Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2008) The liberal moment fifteen years on. International Studies Quarterly 52(4): 691–712.

Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Ragnhild Nordås (2014) Conflicting messages? The IPCC on conflict and human security. Political Geography, in press, DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.08.007, published on-line 5 October at www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000791 (open access).

Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg & Håvard Strand (2002) Armed conflict 1946–2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615–637

Lacina, Bethany; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Bruce Russett, (2006) The declining risk of death in battle. International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 673–680.

Nordås, Ragnhild & Nils Petter Gleditsch (guest editors) (2007) Climate Change & Conflict, special issue of Political Geography 26(6), august.

Slettebak, Rune (2012) Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 163–176.

Theisen, Ole Magnus (2008) Blood and soil? Resource scarcity and internal armed conflict revisited. Journal of Peace Research 45(6): 801–818.

Theisen, Ole Magnus; Helge Holtermann & Halvard Buhaug (2011–12) Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict.International Security 36(3): 79–106.

Theisen, Ole Magnus; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. ‘Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?’, Climatic Change117(3): 613–625.

Documents

Climate change –a threat to the waning of war?...Climate change – a threat to the waning of war? Climate change –a road to disaster? • Darfur is the first of many climate wars