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Climate and Health Country Profiles
Corinne Le Quéré,
Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy, University of East Anglia,
Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Lead Author, IPCC WGI.
Special thanks to Clare Goodess and Colin Harpham, Climatic Research Unit, UEA
1900
atmospheric CO2 concentration
Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL
1960 1980 2000 300
320
340
360
380
400
Year
400 ppm
global temperature
par
ts p
er m
illio
n (
pp
m)
+1°C
1960 1980 2000
Year
1940 1920 1880 1860
Data: HadCRUT4
deg
ree
Cel
siu
s
0.5
0.0
−0.5
El Niño
Pinatubo eruption
Latest trends on atmospheric CO2 and temperature
Year
Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database
Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation
consistent with 2°C limit
high-risk climate future
Year
Paris country pledges
pathways consistent with countries INDC before
Paris COP21 Source: growth above 2010 from
UNFCCC
Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database
Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation
consistent with 2°C limit
high-risk climate future
Year
Paris country pledges
pathways consistent with countries INDC before
Paris COP21 Source: growth above 2010 from
UNFCCC
Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database
Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation
consistent with 2°C limit
high-risk climate future
most hazards caused by climate change will persist for many centuries
What do climate projections mean for us?
Source: IPCC WGI
precipitation change temperature change
warm spells
heavy precipitation
extreme high sea level
past and projected changes in extreme weather events Source: IPCC WGI
What do climate projections mean for us?
processing of the data and model projections example of Bangladesh
1900 2050 2100
Year
2000 1950 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
01
02
03
04
05
0
Bangladesh
01
02
03
04
05
0
R20mm
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
02
04
060
80
Bangladesh
02
04
060
80 R20mm
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bangladesh
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
R20mm
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bangladesh
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
R20mm
1. Bangladesh average from ~20 models
2. Bias correction of mean using observations
3. 30 year smooth to remove natural variability
4. Observations to 2010 (for extremes) or 2013 (for mean T)
5. Consistency check
Days with extreme rainfall (‘flood risk’)
Days
Providing evidence to inform country decisions
Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
past
low emissions
high emissions
Increase in heavy rainfall days within natural variability
Increase in heavy rainfall days above natural variability
1900 2050 2100
Year
2000 1950 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bangladesh
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
R20mmDays with extreme rainfall (‘flood risk’)
Days
example of Bangladesh
Providing evidence to inform country decisions
Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
past
low emissions
high emissions
Mean annual temperature
mean projected warming of 1.4°C above 1990
mean projected warming of 4.8°C above 1990
example of Bangladesh
Providing evidence to inform country decisions
Source: data from CRU-TSv3.22; model results from CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
Days of warm spell (‘heat waves’)
double the number of days of warm spells
extreme shift in climate
example of Bangladesh
Providing evidence to inform country decisions
Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
Thailand
Tanzania
Philippines
Peru Nigeria
Morocco
Malaysia
Ghana Ethiopia
Egypt
Colombia
Brazil
Bangladesh
China
mean annual temperature data and model projections with high and low emissions
Your country in perspective
Oman
Source: data from CRU-TSv3.22; model results from CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
Egypt
Nigeria Tanzania
Morocco Bangladesh
Colombia
Ethiopia
Philippines Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil
China
Ghana
Peru
Oman
days with extreme rainfall data and model projections with high and low emissions
Your country in perspective
Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI
Climate change and health: country profiles 14 |