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Climate Affairs:“Usable Science” for Society?
Michael H. Glantz
ccb.colorado.edu
www.fragilecologies.com
Consortium for Capacity Building
INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado
15 January 2009
The Climate century ?
All eyes are on the atmosphere
Aspects of Climate(what is missing in the graphic?)
• Climate variability
• Climate fluctuations
• Climate change
• “Deep” climate change
• Extreme events
• Seasonality
Perceptions of Climate
• Climate as a resource• Climate as a hazard• Climate as a constraint
Every society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next.
…as a hazard• This is the way that we tend to view climate• Its anomalies can often lead to death and
destruction• There is also a misery factor (lost photos, having
to live in a gym for weeks, loss of pets, heirloom losses, etc
• Governments most concerned about climate as a hazard.
• Governments have responsibility for early warnings.
… as a resource
• Adequate and reliable precipitation, temperature, seasonality
• It provides for adequate food production and water resources in a region
• Experience from similar ecosystems • Reliable forecasts on all time scales • The careful use of climate information can
make a hostile climate less so
… as a boundary constraint
• In the early 1900s climate was viewed as a constraint• Personally• Nationally
• Hot and tropical climates, it was argued, made the people lazy and unproductive in a workplace, whereas seasonal climates of the Northern Hemisphere were invigorating to people and nations
• This view was challenged as racist but was more or less in place until the mid 1970s!!
• Global warming will change present constraints while creating new ones
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/chris-farley-el-nino/1340308260
El Niño Process
El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner
• El Niño is a hazard-spawner
– It is associated with droughts, floods, fires, and disease outbreaks worldwide
• La Niña is also a spawner of natural hazards
El Niño comes of age(October 1997)
Fostering Climate Affairs (why now?)
• Climate issues:– Increasingly important to
governments, corporations, foundations and the public,
• Perceptions:– Climate anomalies are becoming
more frequent, more costly and more deadly
• Global warming:– Looming in the 21st century
The “Affairs” template
• Affairs: business, matters, activities• Business affairs, international affairs, rural affairs,
veteran affairs, etc.
• Here, I use the “Affairs” concept as a multidisciplinary catch-all phrase, a check list of sorts
• The central aspects include:• Science, impacts on ecosystems, impacts on societies,
politics, policy & law, economics, ethics & equity• Water affairs, desert affairs, coastal urban affairs, etc.
Global warming and extreme weather
Climate-sensitive sectors
• Food production• Crops• Fish• Livestock
• Water resources• Quantity• Quality
• Energy• Public health & safety• Economy• Environment• Other
Daily burden to fetch water and firewood
Africa –water gatherers India – firewood gatherers
What citizens should know
• Climate science• Society’s impacts on climate
• Climate impacts• On ecosystems• On societies
• Climate policy & law• Climate politics• Climate economics• Climate ethics & equity
US Global Change Research Program, 2000
How scientists see the climate system
Climate Science
• Understand the climate system
• Understand its components
IIASA
• Society is a component
Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue)
Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue.Red : El NinoBlue: La Nina
Media Headlines Worldwide: El Niño 1997-98
Climate Impacts
• On land and sea• On societies
• Rich and Poor• Developed and Developing• North & South
• Human impacts on the atmosphere• Heat island effect• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Methods to separate natural from societal impacts
Extremes occur often on globe in any given year
Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations
Hurricane Katrina(August 29, 2005)
Venezuelan Mud slidesDecember 1999
