Climate Adaptation Planning:

A Utility Perspective

Upper Colorado River Basin Forum

November 5, 2014

Laurna Kaatz

Climate Policy and Adaptation

Denver Water

1

-20 %

-10 %

%

10 %

20 %

30 %

1 ° 2 ° 3 ° 4 ° 5 ° 6 ° 7 ° 8 ° 9 ° 10 °

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n C

ha

ng

e (

%)

Temperature Change (Fahrenheit)

2040

2070

Projected Changes for North Central Colorado

0

2

Climate Adaptation Challenges

• What information should we use?

• Simple vs sophisticated?

• How do we use it?

• Conversion?

• Probabilities? Scenarios?

• New science?

• Messaging?

Water Planning Challenges

Drought

Population Growth

Climate Change

Economic Woes

Endangered Species

Water Quality

Aging Infrastructure

Long-term planning

• Traditional long-term planning

• Assumes stationary systems (climate, watershed)

• Uses recorded weather and hydrology times series

Present Future

Cone of Uncertainty

• Traditional long-term planning

• Assumes stationary systems (climate, watershed)

• Uses recorded weather and hydrology times series

• New planning methods

• 100’s of possible climate scenarios

• Many other sources of uncertainty

Present

Future

Four Promising Planning Methods

8

A

BC

D

Sign Post

Present

Future

Present

Future

Decision

Expected Cost 1

Expected Cost 2

Expected Cost 3

Flexible

Investments

Cost

Analysis

Traditional Scenario Planning Classic Decision Analysis

Robust Decision Making Real Options

1. Traditional Future - The future is extrapolated from past trends.

2. Water Quality Rules - Contaminant removal and other

drinking water requirements are extremely stringent.

3. Hot Water - A warmer climate accompanied by more frequent and more severe droughts.

4. Economic Woes - An ongoing energy crisis and deep economic downturn.

5. Green Revolution - Environmental values and sustainable living become dominant social norms.

9

Denver Water’s Simple Assessments

10

2009 2° F 5° F

Colorado South

Platte

Colorado South

Platte

Precipitation

increase to offset

warming

5% 5% 8% 12%

2010 5° F

% Change

Yield -22%

Demand 7%

Planning Futures

Wat

er

De

man

dSupply Gap in 2050

Gap Existing Supply

Outcomes

• Identify and preserve options

• Increase diversity and flexibility

• Build adaptive capacity

12

“All I’m saying is now is the time to

develop a plan to deflect an asteroid.”

Four Adaptation Steps

1. Understand climate science and model projections –capabilities and limitations

2. Assess water system vulnerabilities to potential change

3. Plan incorporate climate change uncertainty into water utility planning

4. Implement adaptation strategies

Resources at wucaonline.org

Understanding Planning

Laurna Kaatzlaurna.kaatz@denverwater.org